As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, voters are clamoring for more information about what politics might look like under Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican nominee Donald Trump.

When it comes to agricultural policy, experts predict it could follow two very different paths depending on the election results: more tariffs and subsidies for big farmers under Trump, or climate investments and insurance. expanded harvest under Harris. Daily life there reports.

To know what might happen under a second Trump administration, clues can be taken from his first presidency. As for the Harris administration, the question will be to what extent a new Democratic president would continue the policies of his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Trump’s Tariffs and Subsidies

Early in his term, former President Trump withdrew from a 2016 U.S. free trade deal that would have reduced trade barriers for domestic producers. Soon after, Trump imposed a series of tariffs on imports from almost every other country in the world. Many countries retaliated by invoking their own tariffs on American products.

This ultimately led to a trade dispute with China, which resulted in high tariffs on agricultural products, particularly soybeans and pork products.

To support farmers who have lost markets with global consumers, Trump authorized $14.5 billion for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Market Facilitation Program to provide payments to farmers affected by “unjustified foreign retaliatory tariffs”.

He also gave the green light to the use of Commodity Credit Companya credit program that USDA can use to pay farmers without requiring appropriations from Congress.

“It’s much more like an entitlement program,” said Jonathan Coppess, a policy professor at the University of Illinois and former administrator of the USDA’s Farm Service Agency.

“So you can sign up and qualify for payment, and then the lenders just pay off the loan, basically the credit card,” he said.

This provided a lot of flexibility to the USDA, but in combination with the Market Facilitation Program and the payments farmers already received from the programs in the 2018 farm bill, Coppess said some payments went to the same people, many of whom operate large-scale farms. operations that do not need additional money.

This is an issue that goes back much further than the Trump administration. Large-scale federal support for agriculture was first implemented in the 1930s to protect farmers from market volatility caused by tariffs, natural disasters, or economic recessions. But in recent decades, the majority of that spending has gone to the largest, richest farms.

“Not only do they receive a disproportionate amount of revenue, but they also receive a disproportionate amount of safety net,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in an interview with the Daily Yonder.

Biden’s rural policy extends beyond agriculture

Vilsack said the Biden administration has been trying to figure out how to channel more federal resources to small farms. Millions of dollars are available thanks to American Rescue Plan Act to grow small farms and support farmers’ markets and community-supported agricultural initiatives. THE Inflation Reduction Act injected $19.5 billion into USDA conservation programs that encourage climate-friendly agriculture.

President Biden has invested more broadly in rural communities through policies such as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Actwhich funds broadband infrastructure, wastewater and drinking water system upgrades, and road and bridge development, to name a few.

The Biden administration also inherited Trump’s coronavirus food aid package, which provided $19 billion in aid to farmers and ranchers at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Biden administration extended the program now defunct in 2021.

But Biden’s tenure in the White House has also been defined by lengthy negotiations over the farm bill, which have been overdue for nearly a year.

The puzzle of the agricultural bill

The farm bill goes well beyond supporting individual farmers. For example, it funds food stamps and rural development such as sewer and drinking water needs. The bill is reauthorized by Congress every five years, but it often takes longer to approve.

That’s what happened with the 2023 farm bill. Fierce partisan debate over how much to spend on programs hampered negotiations, and nearly a year after the 2018 farm bill expired , a new five-year farm bill has yet to pass, even with proposals from both parties. House and Senate.

“I think among farm countries, the failure to pass a 2023 farm bill shows a huge dysfunction and reluctance to come to the negotiating table,” said Joe Maxwell, co- founder of Farm Action and former Lieutenant Governor of Missouri. “Both sides are entrenching themselves.”

Maxwell said this dysfunction could add to public frustration with politics, especially as the 2024 presidential election approaches.

2025 and beyond

Agricultural experts predict two very different farm policy realities based on the results of this election.

Another Trump administration would likely impose more tariffs on China. It could also provide more subsidies for larger farms, according to Scott Faber, senior vice president of government affairs for the Environmental Working Group.

He worries about what farm bill proposals from Republicans Glenn Thompson, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, and John Boozman, ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, would mean for small farmers .

“The House bill, in particular, provides a road map for what Republicans could do if they controlled all of Congress and the White House,” Faber said. The proposed bill would increase benchmark prices on only a few agricultural products, such as peanuts, rice and cotton. This means these farmers are guaranteed to be paid through the USDA program. Coverage against price loss program if the market value of these products falls below the reference price. But that leaves out many other commodity farmers, especially those with small farms.

Critics fear that large farms would once again benefit from different subsidy programs if the House farm bill passes. “The increase in farm subsidies would be the largest in more than a generation, even though farm bankruptcies are at a 20-year low,” Faber said.

In contrast, the Democratic farm bill proposal introduced by Debbie Stabenow, chairwoman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, would incorporate climate-smart agricultural investments created by the Inflation Reduction Act into the new bill. agricultural law.

It would also expand access to crop insurance, which is difficult for many farmers to obtain due to the high cost of premiums. Stabenow’s proposal would be increase federal support for farmers’ premiums and making access to higher levels of insurance coverage more affordable.

Although Congress is the primary driving force in agricultural policy, the president can direct that force in certain directions.

President Biden has steered Congress toward climate action and rural investment during his four years. Secretary Vilsack expressed confidence that Vice President Harris was aware of these actions taken by the Biden Administration.

He also said Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz replicated some of these agricultural policies as governor of Minnesota, which could mean they would be prioritized at the federal level if Harris and Walz are elected to the White House in November.

“I’m confident they understand the importance (of investing in small farmers) and the importance of this, based on my current experience with them,” Vilsack said.

This story was produced by Daily life there and edited and distributed by Stacker.