As professional golf’s fall season continues and the sport remains in its general offseason, now is a good time to Athletics to delve into broader debates and discussions about what we expect in 2025. Consider this an opportunity to engage in a discussion about golf at a bar. If you have any topics or ideas you’d like to hear from our editors about, please suggest them in the comments.

First, let’s talk about whose stocks I’m buying for 2025.

There is a line that is thrown quite often by golfers. Think of it as their version of football coaches talking about the turnover battle or baseball players cutting down every odd break over the course of a long season by saying “it’s just baseball.” It’s the usual oversimplification that golfers use to explain their form in a volatile sport where results may not tell us the whole story.

“I’m not getting enough out of my game right now.”

The simple translation? They feel like they’re playing good golf, but not scoring well enough to tie. The even simpler breakdown? This usually means they don’t set well.

And no golfer has said that phrase more in 2024 than Justin Thomas. Yes, the Ryder Cup star with two PGA Championship trophies and 15 PGA Tour victories, a former world No. 1 who has fallen so far in 2023, he didn’t even qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs and whose inclusion in the Ryder Cup team has become a huge debate. And since Thomas failed to win a single tournament this year or even really contend, it became easy for the masses to generalize that Thomas was still in trouble in 2023.

GO DEEPER

With PGA Tour cards in play, the 2024 season enters its home stretch

That’s why at the 2024 PGA Championship in his hometown of Louisville (and many other times afterward), Thomas said, “I feel like I’m playing well. I feel like I haven’t necessarily gotten as much out of my golf as I feel like I’ve played, which can be frustrating at times. But it also reminds me that I’m close and I just need to stay patient.

The fact is that he is right. That’s why I’m buying a comeback year for Thomas that ends with a tour win and a Ryder Cup selection.

The memory of his 2023 disaster — he fell to 70th on DataGolf and 71st in the FedEx Cup standings — had a long tail. When Thomas was I dropped the Presidents Cup team in September, many argued for the move as if he was still that 2023 player. He has been back in the top 25 for 11 months. As of this moment, he is #18 on DataGolf. He’s not back to the JT we all know, but he was the seventh-best American golfer eligible this season in terms of true strokes gained.

I didn’t know if I wanted to watch or not, but I really enjoyed watching this @CoupedesPrésidents. There’s some serious golf and emotion there. It’s killing me watching from home, but I’m rooting hard for Team USA. LFG BOYS

-Justin Thomas (@JustinThomas34) September 29, 2024

All of his underlying driving, approach and short game numbers have improved. He’s not quite at his peak ball-striking from 2017 to 2021, but he ranks 7th in the world in approach. He always gains 10 percent distance on the tee relative to the field. It is incorrect to say that he is still lost.

So why has Thomas only finished in the top 30 nine times in 23 starts? Why did he miss the cut in two majors and struggle to make four rounds in so many big tests? There are probably two reasons.

The first is the aforementioned putting. Even during his peak years at No. 1 in the world, he was never a great putter. Thomas’ best putting season gained 0.33 strokes on the field. Overall it was average. But it became a real disaster. His condition worsened in 2024 compared to the previous year. Aside from a few bad weeks, Thomas has played excellent golf from tee to green in almost every tournament. The problem was that he would finish sixth at Pebble Beach while losing an entire putt or lead the Players Championship in ball striking but miss the cut because his putting caused him to lose 1.65 strokes. There was a similarity to Scottie Scheffler’s 2023 – there were several weeks in which Thomas could have won if he was just an average putter again. It cost him again last weekend in a T2 at the ZOZO Championship in Japan.

Putting is part of golf. It shouldn’t be yada-yada. But Thomas is not a perfume of the week. He is only 31 years old and has more PGA Tour victories than Jordan Spieth, Jason Day or Brooks Koepka. Almost twice as many as Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, who are around the same age. And most players at Thomas’ level go through difficult times. Let’s not forget Rory McIlroy’s damage in 2018 and 2021.

This prediction expects a slight positive regression for Thomas in putting. Otherwise, nothing will change.

GO DEEPER

What the PGA Tour’s plan to reduce map and field sizes means

But the other reasons for Thomas’s inconsistencies are less tangible but arguably more important. That’s what’s in his head. And this is best seen in the way Thomas has performed on the biggest stages of late.

In the 10 major starts since his epic victory at the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills, Thomas is just one finish better than T31. You know how I just said he’s been great from tee to green all season? Well, the only three weeks where he clearly struggled were the Genesis Invitational, the Masters and the US Open. You know, the most pressure-filled weeks.

Justin Thomas has struggled at majors since winning the 2022 PGA Championship. (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)

To dig even deeper, Thomas developed a tendency to play well before collapsing during these tournaments.

He was in the top 10 at Augusta entering the second round nine before finishing the final four holes in double-double-bogey-double to miss the cut in historic fashion. He led the Scottish Open with a first round 62 to finish T62. He then led the Open Championship at Royal Troon after 18 holes to shoot 78 the next day. He bounced back with a 67 on Saturday – then shot 77 on Sunday. It was the perfect example of his volatility.

For Thomas to once again become one of the best players in the world, he must regain his mental calm, characteristic of his great championship successes and his Ryder Cup triumphs.

“I think at least I’ve learned that you can’t just will it to get better and magically get better,” he said in May. “I think I’ve… kind of realized certain moments, it’s like, okay, recognize that I feel certain things or think a certain way, and then do something or try to change my way of thinking about it or whatever.

“It’s hard.”

We see that Justin Thomas, the elite golfer, is not far away. We see the ball hit and the game runs. The challenge may be in his head. I bet he’ll notice. The big ones do it.

(Top photo: Eric Risberg / Associated Press)