(Source: Reuters)

The deepening dispute between Canada and India over its alleged campaign of violence against Sikhs in Canada.

It could intensify cyberespionage in India and curb immigration, but analysts and experts see no immediate impact on trade.

Concern over a growing divide between the two countries comes after a senior Canadian official told a parliamentary national security committee on Tuesday that Indian Interior Minister Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was the mastermind behind the alleged plots.

Although Indian officials have rejected the official’s statement, the disclosure could escalate a dispute that began a year ago when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cited credible evidence linking Indian agents to the shooting of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023 in British Columbia.

In response, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats earlier this month, accusing them of involvement.

Four men have been charged with his murder.

Canada’s signals intelligence agency that monitors foreign-based cyber threats said New Delhi was most likely already carrying out threatening cyber activities against Canadian networks for espionage purposes.

“As Canada and India may have tensions, it is possible that India may want to relax its cyber threat measures against Canadians,” Caroline Xavier, head of the agency, known as Communications Security Establishment Canada, said at a news conference Wednesday.

The agency has already described India as an emerging threat.

Diplomatically, Ottawa is unlikely to take more punitive measures until more details about the Nijjar case are revealed, said Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Ministers are due to testify on the matter before the national security committee and the murder trial of the four men has not yet started, she noted.

“If charges were brought during the process against people living in India, at any level, it would trigger an extradition process that could take years. And of course, India is unlikely to cooperate. she said.

Officials working for Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly did not respond to requests for comment on what next steps Ottawa might take.

India is the main source of temporary foreign workers and international students coming to Canada, but a backlog of applications has built up since Trudeau’s allegations last year.

Canada now has just four immigration officers in India, down from 27 in October 2023. This affects Canada’s ability to process visas there, said Immigration Minister Marc Miller.

“I told my colleagues in Parliament that the situation could get worse before it gets better and that they must prepare for it. » he said in an interview last Friday.

That could mean fewer people traveling between countries for legitimate reasons, he said.

COMMERCIAL RELATIONS

India is Canada’s 10th largest trading partner and New Delhi has made clear it does not want flows to be affected. The Nadjibulla Foundation carried out a study showing that Trudeau’s declaration in October 2023 had little or no effect on bilateral trade.

“Whether that’s the case now, I think is a bigger question mark, because the disruptions are on a larger scale and we’re still not, I don’t believe, at the bottom of this.” she said on the phone.

Canada is the largest exporter of pulses, such as lentils, to India. Pulse Canada President Greg Cherewyk, when asked about the potential impact of the diplomatic dispute, cited the strength of the relationship.

“At a time of stubborn food price inflation and high demand for pulses, we are confident that affordability and availability will continue to guide decision-making at the government level. » he said in a statement.

“Fortunately, we have not seen political tensions affect trade” said Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance.

“India and Canada have great potential in their trade relations and CAFTA hopes that we can return to positive trade discussions. »