China quantitative hedge funds are likely to end years of market outperformance, after a rise in local stocks spurred by the government’s economic stimulus plan last month beat their models and press short positions.

Quants’ long-only strategies lag mainland China stocks by 22%. leap by 2 percentage points in September, transforming their so-called excess return since the start of the year into a loss of 0.1%. That compares with an outperformance of at least 16 percentage points over the past three years, according to data compiled by Shenzhen PaiPaiWang Investment & Management Co.