When Tim Houston showed up to the Nova Scotia legislature in 2021 to speak in favor of fixed election dates – the first bill he introduced after becoming premier – he said that it was a way to create predictability for the public, potential candidates and volunteers.

He added that it would also level the playing field for the government and opposition parties.

“We all know that governments sometimes choose a date that they think benefits them,” Houston said at the time. “Early elections, leading the polls, no matter what.”

To be the government for finally put an end to it and set July 15, 2025, because the next provincial elections will be “truly an honor,” he declared.

Sunday, after a month during which his government made no less than 37 announcements costing a total of more than $402 million, and at a time when his party is leading the polls, Houston called early elections.

While party leaders vying to replace the Progressive Conservatives as government are sure to point to Houston’s broken promise and months of announcements, Dalhousie University professor Lori Turnbull thinks Houston is sufficiently advanced in his mandate so that it would not be a burning issue for voters.

Turnbull thinks it’s more likely voters will punish Houston for not keeping his word on election day.

“I think a more likely outcome might be that voters don’t see the need for an election right now, so they don’t show up,” said Turnbull, a professor in the Faculty of Management and Department of Science school policies. .

Cape Breton University political scientist Tom Urbaniak says if calling an early election proves to be a problem for Houston, it would be in the context of keeping promises.

“It raises a credibility issue,” he said.

Target broken promises

Liberal and NDP candidates could build on this or other broken Conservative promises, such as the turnaround during the proclamation of the Coastal Protection Act Or not give more powers to the Privacy Commissioner, or accountability issues such as how the Conservative government has spent less and less time in the legislature and has spent more than $1 billion a year outside of its own budgets.

But the promise most likely to come under scrutiny is the 2021 Conservative Party’s promise to improve health care.

During their first term, the Conservatives signed new contracts with doctors, nurses, paramedics and other health-care workers, all in an effort to attract and retain more people. Changes have been made to try to speed up accreditation, Health-care leaders recognize that the quickest way to address staffing shortages in the province is through immigration.

Thousands of additional long-term care rooms are planned or under construction and the government has made great efforts to increase the use of technology in the health system. Many of these details and more are included in a brochure the government mailed to 480,000 addresses just before the election was called at a cost of $158,000. The Liberals filed a complaint with Elections Nova Scotia about the document.

The PCs will show all new ways for people without a family doctor to access care without having to resort to a trip to the emergency room, but the Liberals and NDP will point it out twice as many people are now without a family practice like when Houston took office in 2021.

Shovels in the ground but unsigned contracts

Construction work is also planned or underway at hospitals in the province, but Conservatives failed to finalize a contract for the first phase of the Halifax Infirmary redevelopment before the election is called.

There also remains no contract for the sale of a former hotel site to long-term care provider Shannex, although the company is well underway in the property conversion work to care for patients who no longer need a hospital bed but who are still recovering or awaiting placement in a retirement home.

Nova Scotia’s auditor general criticized both projects for the lack of checks and balances given the massive amount of public money involved. In the case of the former hotel site, she questioned the purchase of the former hotel project.

Houston remained unmoved, saying the system demands speed and action. During the last election, he said things would take time to improve, but he was willing to spend whatever it took to make changes.

Urbaniak said most voters probably didn’t expect health care could be fixed in one term. He added that the question for them will be whether they believe the changes made so far are sufficient.

Challenges for Churchill and Chender

The Liberals and NDP face their own questions.

In her first election as NDP leader, Claudia Chender will attempt to increase support for a party that has remained in third place and largely stagnant since the defeat of former NDP premier Darrell Dexter in 2013.

Although the party has attempted to set the agenda on issues such as housing, affordability and poverty reduction, it has received no credit for this in the last two elections. Meanwhile, they saw this year that the Conservatives were the party that would finally index income assistance rates to the rate of inflation.

But on housing and health care, in particular, the argument will be that Houston and his team have failed horribly. The NDP proposed legislation to try to alleviate the housing crisis over the past three years, but few of them have interested the PCs.

Chender will show the way rent prices in Nova Scotia have skyrocketed over the last three years, and the fact that none of the initiatives put forward by the Conservatives have significantly changed the situation.

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill may face even more challenges.

Although this is his first campaign as party leader, Churchill has been an MP since 2010. He will be looking in this election for a way to reintroduce himself to a public who might already think he knows what he’s talking about.

His party will walk a tightrope trying to criticize the Conservatives’ record on health care, while recognizing that it was in power for eight years before the last election.

Another challenge for the liberals will be the loss of veteran candidates who have decided to retire, as well as two candidates who left the party this year and who are now running for PCs.

Last week, Houston tried to neutralize a commitment from the liberal platform… reduce the HST by two percentage points -when he announced the HST would be reduced by one percentage point in April. Nova Scotians need tax relief, he said, but they can’t afford the cut proposed by the Liberals.

The steepest hill for Churchill to climb, however, is the certainty that Houston and his team will spend this election trying to link provincial Liberal leader to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the unpopular federal carbon tax.

The Conservatives have never missed an opportunity to make this connection in recent years. Earlier this month, Houston called Churchill a “Trudeau liberal,” while adding that he was not a “Poilievre conservative.”

“I’m not a member of any federal party. I’m a Nova Scotian. My focus is on Bluenosers and what’s best for Nova Scotians.”

Urbaniak said it’s a safe bet the public will hear a lot from the federal Liberal government between now and Nov. 26. He speculated that the most likely reason Houston is going to the polls early is because he doesn’t want to miss an opportunity to vote. organize elections while Trudeau, poorly elected, is still prime minister.

“The Liberal brand is generally suffering right now and so that has a ripple effect on the provincial Liberals, and the Conservatives are going to try to amplify that as much as they can.”

Houston didn’t hesitate to make the suggestion last week when asked about the possibility of early elections.

“There is incredible unrest in Ottawa right now,” he told reporters.

How leaders frame the ballot question

According to Houston, the federal government is shortchanging the province in matters of funding for the modernization of the Isthmus of Chignecto and harm Nova Scotians by a lack of control of illegal fishing And the imposition of a consumer price on carbon.

“We need to make sure we do everything we can to put Nova Scotia in the best possible position to negotiate and be respected, and I think that’s been difficult.”

Churchill didn’t have much time to explain this when he spoke to reporters last week.

“It’s BS,” he said.

“(Houston) has a strong mandate – he has a majority government. And he’s going to try to fool the people of this province into believing that this election is going to change the results in Ottawa. That’s not the case.”

During the Conservatives’ first term, Nova Scotia became one of the most expensive places to live in Canada, he said, and problems like the housing crisis are not improving.

Chender agreed, saying Houston’s majority government gave him more than enough leverage to negotiate with Ottawa.

“Even though he doesn’t like to negotiate,” she said. “He likes to fight.”

Chender said when people go to vote, they will look at the PC record and see a party and a leader seeking to distract from the shortcomings of their first term in government.

“We are happy to have the opportunity to have this conversation on our doorsteps and in any location possible, because this election will be about health care, housing and the cost of living.”