That you accept Or disagree with the Toronto Maple Leafs new contract extension Along with defender Jake McCabe, you have to task general manager (GM) Brad Treliving to anticipate some of the club’s upcoming contract negotiations. The Maple Leafs and the McCabe camp finally arrived at a term (five years) and an average annual value ($4.51 million) that they were both happy with and so another long-term domino is in place for the club.

Jake McSIGNED pic.twitter.com/7qy7FMCoSD

– Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) October 28, 2024

By taking care of business more than seven months before McCabe hit the open market, the Maple Leafs were able to mitigate the risk of the 31-year-old’s value being artificially inflated due to a fairly thin contract. defensive free agent class. It’s certainly fair to quibble over the awarding of two long-term and significant contracts to aging defensemen in recent months (Chris Tanev signed for six years and $27 million on July 1), but it serves to remove one more task from what already promises to be a busy 2025 summer.

With McCabe under contract and further contract extension negotiations reportedly underway, let’s take a look at the club’s pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs) based on who is most likely and least likely to return after this season (ranking from least likely to most likely):

6) Philippe Myers/Dakota Mermis

Given their shared status as depth defensemen signed to one-year deals on the fringes of the Maple Leafs roster, it seems logical to group Philip Myers and Dakota Mermis together.

Myers has established himself a little better within the organization, earn a spot on Toronto’s roster on October 26, in which he finished with a minus-1 differential in just over 12 minutes of ice time. Mermis, meanwhile, is still recovering from off-season jaw surgery but he is expected to return to action soon – likely with the Toronto Marlies.

The reality with both men, however, is that they simply won’t be the club’s priorities this summer. Perhaps opportunities are being created for one or both to open their eyes and increase their actions, but neither is particularly young (Myers is 27, while Mermis is 30) and both could move further down the depth chart once Jani Hakanpaa is allowed to debut with the Maple Leafs. Even after Timothy Liljegren being distributed in San Josetheir path to regular NHL playing time is simply unclear at this point.

5) Jani Hakanpaa

Speaking of Hakanpaa, the wait continues for the highly anticipated Finn to make his debut with the Maple Leafs after undergoing knee arthroscopic surgery in the offseason. Hopefully, the 32-year-old joined the team on its recent road trip through Boston and Winnipeg, an encouraging sign that a return to the ice is coming.

Of course, with so much focus on Hakanpaa’s health, the furthest thing from the organization’s mind is extending his free agent acquisition beyond this season. If he steps in and brings value and additional depth to the blue line, Treliving would certainly be forced to consider the possibility of keeping him. Unless blown away, Treliving and the front office might be reluctant to dedicate any additional cap space to defenders over 30 with McCabe (31), Chris Tanev (35), Morgan Rielly (30) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (33 years old). ) already locked in for the long term.

It’s probably safe to say that Hakanpaa will be motivated to prove that he can still be a valuable asset to the defensive corps as a tough and courageous zone protector in pursuit of his next contract. But even still, it won’t be easy to convince NHL decision-makers – whether in Toronto or elsewhere – of his injury history.

4) Max Pacioretty

It’s too early to assess how the Max Pacioretty experiment is going in Toronto. His two goals and six points in nine games are very encouraging, but he is previously suffered a lower body injury (not serious, but still) and didn’t entirely stand out from a collection of depth forwards on the team. Despite his pedigree and solid offensive numbers early on, he was part of a healthy scratch rotation which also included Ryan Reaves, Pontus Holmberg, Nicholas Robertson and Bobby McMann.

On the one hand, Pacioretty is significantly older than all but Reaves among these players, so perhaps it behooves the club to provide more opportunities to its younger forwards. Then again, none of them put together the same offensive numbers as the 35-year-old. Additionally, his production comes with a ceiling price of $873,770 (excluding bonuses), lower than everyone else except Holmberg.

This affordable price shows why Pacioretty ranks higher on this list than Hakanpaa. He could theoretically be the last in a long line of late-career established veterans to remain in Toronto on a series of one-year minimum contracts (from “Free Agents Can Be Hometown Heroes With Leafs,” to the correct price,’ Toronto StarJuly 9, 2022). The five-time 30-goal scorer could fill the role previously occupied by Joe Thornton, Jason Spezza, Wayne Simmonds and Mark Giordano, although he doesn’t have local ties like the aforementioned quartet.

3) John Tavares

It’s a credit to the Maple Leafs and John Tavares that the captaincy transition last summer was handled so well, with no obvious indication of internal turmoil surrounding the decision. Can the same level of professionalism from both parties also be applied to the 34-year-old’s upcoming contract negotiations?

The circumstances surrounding Tavares’ upcoming deal appear to leave plenty of room for possible awkwardness and hurt feelings. The respected 16-year NHL veteran is nearing the end of his massive seven-year, $77 million contract that brought him back to Toronto. Obviously, he can’t expect a near-term or $11 million annual salary offered by his expiring contract. The question is how much of a cut will be needed to reach a mutual agreement and, if desired, what other deals the teams might be willing to offer.

Tavares is likely past his prime and probably won’t be able to match the 47 goals and 88 points he produced in his first 2018-19 season with the Maple Leafs. That said, it’s far from washed. He has recorded 65 goals and 145 points over his last two seasons (excluding 2024-25) and has produced five goals and 11 points in 11 games so far this season. He already appears to be slowly losing his grip on the No. 2 center role, but he still provides value as a top-six winger or third-line center — just not for $11 million.

Hopefully the two sides can find a viable middle ground for Tavares’ next deal. For example, Jordan Eberle, who is a few months older than Tavares and has posted similar numbers so far, signed a two-year extension with the Seattle Kraken in March which earned him $4.75 million per season. If this isn’t the type of contract Tavares is considering, then this could become a contentious negotiation.

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2) Steven Lorentz

Largely an afterthought as the “other professional tryout candidate (PTO)” in training camp aside from Pacioretty, Steven Lorentz quickly solidified his place as a mainstay on the fourth line. and a favorite fans and coaches. The Kitchener native has impressed with how he is adapting to head coach Craig Berube’s new system, playing physical, blocking shots and being trustworthy in minutes against the team’s top forwards. opposition, including significant time shorthanded.

These strong first impressions of Lorentz appear to be making a mark, as the Maple Leafs apparently did. extension talks have already been initiated with the 28-year-old.

Steven Lorentz could get an extension with the Leafs soon after becoming eligible on January 1 pic.twitter.com/UlJVHgce6L

– The Leaf Nation (@TLNdc) October 17, 2024

Because Lorentz signed a one-year contract, he is not eligible for a contract extension until Jan. 1, according to the rules of the collective agreement (CCT). Still, it’s rare for fourth-line players with relatively small roles (he averaged just 11:07 with the Maple Leafs) to be the focus of contract extension speculation this early. This first buzz offers a fairly encouraging sign regarding his return to blue and white next season.

1) Mitch Marner

With all due respect to all of the aforementioned free agents, the biggest storyline of the summer of 2025 – assuming he doesn’t sign ahead of time – will be the fate of Mitch Marner. The last time the two sides negotiated a new deal, it was a contentious negotiation that stretched into mid-September. This time, not much has changed, as Marner continues to maintain an elite level of play while the team would ideally prefer to have a less top-heavy draft structure.

In some ways, it’s surprising that Marner remains a Maple Leaf even at this point. After another first-round elimination in the playoffs last spring and the subsequent pressure to break down the “Core Four,” the 27-year-old found himself inundated with sales chatter for much of the offseason. It stood to reason that the club would look to extract value from their star striker rather than risk losing him for nothing this summer.

A trade remains a possibility for Marner, as does a separation via free agency, especially in the face of another early playoff exit. However, neither party likely wants to give up what they have. The Markham, Ontario native gets the opportunity to play for his hometown team alongside Auston Matthews, one of the best hockey players in the world. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs are still loath to say goodbye to a highly productive playmaker who ranks eighth in the entire league in points dating back to the start of the 2018-19 season.

Because of what both sides mean to each other, the most likely scenario still seems like Marner and the organization find a way to keep their partnership productive beyond this season (hence the reason for which I ranked him as the UFA most likely to stay in Toronto). . With a rising cap hit and Tavares set to take a pay cut, the Maple Leafs should be able to find a contract number that satisfies Marner’s camp and allows for the continuation of a founding core that also includes Matthews and William Nylander.

There are still seven months until the aforementioned Maple Leafs can hit the open market, so a lot can still change, as we saw recently with McCabe. Still, another important summer awaits Treliving and the club, who don’t have the luxury of waiting until the offseason to plan for these players’ futures.