We’ve been saying it for weeks, and the words ring truer by the day: this fall has been exceptionally dry.

We received an inch and a half of rain in September, with most of it falling by the end of the month. October was even drier, with weeks passing without a drop of measurable rain in Central Park. And the consequences of such a persistent period of drought are becoming considerable.

Since 1869, when records began being collected in Central Park, we have never gone an entire calendar month without measurable rain. On Tuesday, 29 days into the month, we finally managed to accumulate the minimum amount of measurable rain: 0.01 inch.

That’s all we’ll get for the month, and it makes October 2024 the driest calendar month on record, edging out June 1949, where we got 0.02 inches.

A very dry October preceded by an arid September left us with a deficit of seven inches since the start of the season over the two months. This is the driest start to autumn since the 19^th century (for history buffs, this dates back to the administration of Benjamin Harrison).

The lack of rain has harmful consequences, particularly in the form of drought. At the beginning of September, there was no drought in the region. As of the last drought monitor update on October 31, the entire state of New Jersey is now in at least moderate drought conditions. More than half of the state is currently facing a severe drought.

For comparison, severe drought conditions have not covered 50% of New Jersey since 2002.

Increasing drought is leading to increased fire concerns in the Tri-State. Wind gusts, relative humidity and lack of precipitation are all factors that affect the risk of fire in a given location. Our parched landscape alone has fostered elevated fire danger almost every day for the past two weeks.

Lack of precipitation produces dry brush ripe for burning. Low humidity makes it easier to start fires, and gusty winds cause fires to spread quickly. When all of these factors interact, they create extreme fire risk conditions.

Currently our winds and humidity are under control. Our main fire hazard is dry brush, which has become increasingly abundant due to the lack of rain. And that has been the primary driving factor that has led to the high, and sometimes extreme, fire risk in all three states.

Thursday’s weather did nothing to improve the situation: drier weather coupled with temperatures that matched or broke afternoon temperature records. Islip, on Long Island, reached 80 degrees that day, breaking the previous record of 73 from two decades ago. Records from 1946 were broken at LaGuardia Airport, Newark Airport and Poughkeepsie, while Central Park matched its record set that day 78 years ago.

He just hit 81 in Central Park. Everyone gets a record! pic.twitter.com/91rmXy8igT

– Storm Team 4 NY (@StormTeam4NY) October 31, 2024

Fire problems will only get worse as our rainfall deficit continues to grow. Friday morning is our next chance for rain, but it will barely register in the rain gauge. We’ll be lucky to pick up more than a hundredth of an inch. This is far from enough to reduce our deficit.

And, minimal as it is, this could be our last chance to see rain for a while as we look to enter another prolonged dry spell next week.