A Capitol Police intelligence assessment obtained by ABC News warns of increased threat to government officials and election-related sites following the 2024 presidential election.

The report highlights the “likelihood of violence and civil unrest” surrounding the certification process of the 2025 electoral vote and presidential inauguration.

Released earlier this month, the report said that although threats against members of Congress were fewer in 2024 than in 2020, threats increased significantly after Election Day four years ago, a trend which Capitol Police say will repeat in 2024.

The report added that the escalation of discourse on social media “could suggest an environment ripe for politically motivated violence in the wake of the US presidential election.”

Capitol Police expect protests targeting election certification process and say a group of activists “with a history of large-scale demonstrations involving illegal activity plans to protest the inauguration, regardless of or the result.”

They also expect protests related to Israel’s ongoing war, noting that it is “almost certain the groups will target the inauguration.”

Their decision to target the nomination is independent of the election outcome. One group has already applied for a permit for Inauguration Day inside the security perimeter, but their request will be denied.

However, protests are now planned for January 6, the day the electoral vote is certified.

Capitol Police reported an increase in social media posts alleging the election was “stolen.”

They noted that foreign influence efforts aimed at propagating plots to undermine, manipulate and impair confidence in the electoral process “could exacerbate existing political tensions.”

Russia remains the main foreign threat, although Iran has also tried to exacerbate conflict-related tensions in Israel, according to the assessment.

The report highlights that threat actors view the electoral vote certification and inauguration as “their last opportunity to influence election outcomes through violence.”

The Capitol Police intelligence assessment warns that some threats “remain unknown,” particularly that of “single actor violence.”

“The motivations of some recent attackers are not entirely consistent or remain unknown, highlighting the difficulty of predicting the violence of a single individual,” the report notes.

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