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    • As Biden leaves, a look back at his foreign policy record
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    As Biden leaves, a look back at his foreign policy record

    Pabio Posted on

    Wars in Europe and the Middle East have put Joe Biden’s foreign policy team under considerable pressure. A review of Biden’s foreign policy record shows successes, hesitations and an ongoing shift in focus that is likely to persist.

    Joe Biden, the last transatlantic, leaves the White House.

    Joe Biden, the last transatlantic, leaves the White House.

    Elizabeth Frantz / Reuters

    In January, a president who helped shape the final chapter of the Cold War during his years as a U.S. senator will leave the White House. Joe Biden was first elected to the Delaware State Senate in 1973.

    Having played a role in disarmament negotiations with the Soviet Union in the 1970s, in the fight against apartheid in South Africa in the 1980s, in ending the Balkan Wars in the 1990s and in the America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after September 11, 2001, Biden has been involved in every major chapter of American foreign policy in recent decades.

    Biden became vice president under Barack Obama. In this capacity, he was one of the government’s main foreign policy decision-makers. In 2009, he opposed the temporary increase in U.S. troops in Afghanistan, losing his argument to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. He shared responsibility for the gradual withdrawal from Iraq, campaigned for the New Start disarmament treaty with Russia and played a role in the fight against the violent Islamic State group. Biden was also partly responsible for the US response to Russia’s twin attacks on Ukraine in 2014.

    Finally, as president, Biden himself assumed primary responsibility for the decision-making process beginning in January 2021. Few U.S. presidents have entered office with such extensive foreign policy experience. Did it serve him well?

    The foreign policy record of his four years in office is mixed.

    With the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, Biden ended the chapter in the so-called war on terror. The goal was to free up U.S. resources to address a more pressing challenge: how to deal with a rising and increasingly aggressive China.

    An era of new wars

    The Russian president, however, spoiled Biden’s plan. Biden had hoped to build a reasonably constructive cooperative relationship with Russia. But Vladimir Putin had other plans. By the end of summer 2021, American intelligence services understood that Russia was preparing a major attack against Ukraine.

    So instead of ending the wars and focusing on global economic issues in competition with China, the White House was forced to respond to Putin’s war. Biden’s transatlantic instincts, honed over five decades, proved crucial. The White House took the strategic initiative and became Ukraine’s main arms supplier.

    Nonetheless, Biden leaves behind a situation that falls far short of what his team had hoped to accomplish. The White House has set a goal of putting Ukraine in a position of strength – a goal that has still not been achieved. Biden repeatedly faltered and provided far less support to Ukraine than he otherwise might have. This reluctance is driven by concerns – some would say exaggerated fear – about the potential consequences. What happens next remains unclear.

    Biden also leaves behind uncertainties regarding the Middle East. For now, his attempt to build a strong anti-Iranian bloc that would halt Tehran’s regional expansion, largely through a tripartite alliance between Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States, has failed. After the shock of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel strengthened its policy of strategic deterrence in a striking manner. But it came at a heavy cost to its global image – and did nothing to open up new prospects for reconciliation with the Palestinians.

    Security in the Indo-Pacific

    The Biden administration has had more success strengthening the Indo-Pacific security framework against an expansionist China. Through a variety of partnerships and collaborative agreements, it has fostered a regional network centered on Japan and including India.

    But here too, it is not certain that all this will form a truly solid front in the future. For example, it remains to be seen whether these loose alliances will be more effective than previous policies in deterring China from militarily challenging the status quo or attempting to conquer Taiwan by force.

    In the three regions where the struggle to define the future world order will be decided, Biden has placed himself on the side of the anti-hegemonic forces. It has resisted attempts by Russia, China and Iran to expand their power and influence by force in their respective regions. He sought to strengthen America’s allies and friends.

    Antony Blinken, Biden’s secretary of state, also acknowledged that this work was “unfinished.” In an article for Foreign Affairs magazinehe writes that the Biden administration has put the United States in a “much stronger geopolitical position.”

    However, he adds, in the future the United States will have to “show courage” to shake the assumptions of the “revisionists” – Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. He notes that U.S. policymakers must be prepared for these countries to work more closely together in the future. However, Washington must also maintain the trust of its friends and ensure that American voters continue to resolutely support such a foreign policy, Blinken writes.

    The real legacy of the Biden administration likely lies somewhat outside the realm of traditional foreign policy. Biden followed instincts developed during the Cold War and supported America’s allies and partners in three geopolitically central regions.

    The team’s central strategist, national security adviser Jake Sullivan, has also taken geoeconomic competition with China to a new level. This fact could prove more decisive in the long term.

    Giving direction from behind the scenes: U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan during a press conference in Washington, DC, February 14, 2024.

    Giving direction from behind the scenes: U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan during a press conference in Washington, DC, February 14, 2024.

    Imago

    Focus on competition with China

    Continuing from the previous administration of Donald Trump, the Biden team has completed the paradigm shift towards competition between great powers. Republicans and Democrats share concerns about China’s growing technological prowess and its ability to surpass the United States in military and industrial might.

    Under Sullivan’s leadership, the Biden administration has invested heavily in strengthening the US technology sector – while at the same time introducing measures aimed at preventing China from accessing cutting-edge technologies, particularly high-performance computer chips .

    In a recent speech at the Brookings Institution think tankSullivan provided an update on the situation. Faced with intense geopolitical competition and rapid technological change, the Biden administration has opted for a modern industrial strategy to make America fit to compete with a China that does not operate in a market economy, but is oriented towards political domination, he said.

    At the same time, U.S. policymakers have implemented measures to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities and unilateral dependencies, he noted. China has “demonstrated its willingness to weaponize these dependencies,” Sullivan said.

    Regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, this strategy of assertiveness should be continued by the next White House team. The United States will remain focused on blocking China’s access to advanced technologies while reconfiguring its infrastructure and its own production processes to reduce vulnerabilities – protecting itself as much as possible against coercion, sabotage and espionage.

    This approach has already eclipsed the traditional crisis management and war prevention diplomacy for which Biden is best known. The world can expect to see a lot more of this sort of thing during the term of the next US president.

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