Let me be clear up front. I want Vice President Kamala Harris earn. I’ve spent much of the last two or three months on the ground, in one battleground state after another, encouraging independents and Republicans to vote for her. I am part of the “Republicans for Harris” effort. And the main reason I want Harris to win is because former president Donald Trump is totally unfit to carry out his duties. The man who refused to concede the 2020 election, who indicated he would refuse to concede this election if he lost, is a danger to this country and must never sit in the Oval Office again.

Harris, by placing herself much more at the center of politics, has made my job of getting Republicans to vote for her much easier. But when it comes to the health and viability of these two political parties, I worry about how each party would be negatively affected if they win. Does this seem confusing? Let me explain.

The Democratic Party faces real problems that haven’t been addressed for some time, and a Harris victory would be all the excuse party leaders need to continue ignoring these lingering problems. As the GOP morphed into an anti-democratic, authoritarian sect, Democrats were able to just point the finger at everyone else and say, “Look, they’re burning down our house, they’re attacking our democracy, vote for us.” . We are normal. And it generally worked. The perceived threat posed by MAGA Republicans has led Democrats to better-than-expected results in 2018, 2020 and 2022 — and could lead them to victory again on Tuesday.

But this victory might not be a good thing for the Democratic Party’s long-term prospects. The Democrats have lost touch with the American working class, regardless of race. They have become the party of the wealthy and educated elites. This is anecdotal, obviously, but if I had a dollar for every conversation I’ve had over the last five or six years with an ordinary working-class man or woman who said to me some variation of: “Joe , I know Trump is an asshole, I know MAGA can be a little crazy, but Democrats are elitists who don’t understand me and despise me” – I would be a rich guy.

The Democratic Party has lurched to the left, increasingly motivated by “woke” social issues that place primacy on identity, while disdaining issues that concern working-class voters of all races and ethnicities – such as crime, inflation and borders. This condescension toward so many voters who cannot identify with the coastal elites of academia and media provided the opening Trump needed eight years ago. He spoke directly to these people. Sure, Trump is a demagogue and he lies to these people and tries to scare them, but they feel like, unlike the Democrats, at least Trump listens to them.

A Harris victory would be a victory for the country – and could well be the final curtain on Trump’s improbable and historically destructive political career. But it would also give Democrats all the excuses they need to avoid any meaningful introspection about how this race was so close.

Think about it this way: Would Harris win on Tuesday if the Republican nominee was someone other than Donald Trump? If Harris loses, the party would have no choice but to look within itself and wonder how this man could have beaten its candidate in two of the last three elections. There would finally be a real, honest and difficult assessment of the party’s problems. It would be painful and take a few years. But at least it would happen. And that could well help the party correct its trajectory.

Evaluating a Trump victory for the Republican Party is much simpler. My biggest worry for the Republican Party is that a Trump victory means the absolute end of my former party. MAGA, Trump, and Trumpism will have been fully validated, and there will be no return to a party of liberty, free markets, free trade, and limited government. The MAGA party – an authoritarian, governmental, intolerant and hypernationalist party will be here to stay. The young Republican candidates will all embrace this MAGA ideology. If Trump wins, the GOP will be MAGA forever.

Yes, our country comes first. Our democracy comes first. This is why Trump must lose and Harris must win. But our two main political parties have major problems. If Harris wins, the Democratic Party’s problems are likely to get worse. If Trump wins, the Republican Party will be permanently lost to MAGA, leaving the United States without a true conservative party – just a liberal party and an authoritarian personality cult.