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    • Israel prepares for Biden’s final moves before Trump’s election
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    Israel prepares for Biden’s final moves before Trump’s election

    Pabio Posted on

    Israel must be ready to face the interim chapter between November and January between the American presidents, after what I hope will be a decisive victory of Donald Trump in the US elections next week.

    In the past, such transition periods have proven perilous for U.S. policy and U.S.-Israel relations.

    The classic example is President Barack Obama’s decision in December 2016, as he prepared to leave the White House after eight years of harassment. Prime Minister Netanyahu, castigate Israel one last time by allowing the adoption of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2334.

    That resolution, which the Obama White House surreptitiously helped craft and which the United States then abstained on, allowing it to pass, declared that the settlements were a flagrant violation of international law.

    What is less known is that Obama had planned at the time a second, even worse UN Security Council resolution, which was only scuttled by Russian President Putin’s desire to veto this effort.

    U.S. President Barack Obama raises his head during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York on September 21, 2016. (credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)

    According to reports, Netanyahu personally appealed to Putin on this matter, and President-elect Trump’s team also played a role in this regard.

    As revealed years later in 2020 Israel Hayom and the journalists and editors of this newspaper (in particular Lahav Harkov and David Jablinowitz), this second resolution would have imposed international “parameters” and imposed an “irreversible” timetable for a final Israeli-Palestinian status. arrangement, which means the establishment of a full-fledged and uncontrollable Palestinian state.

    Although the nascent resolution did not make it to the table at the UN Security Council, outgoing Secretary of State John Kerry delivered a long and savage speech against Netanyahu, laying out the “indispensable” parameters for a solution of two states and demanding that the world continue to pressure Israel until it gives in.

    A similar UN Security Council resolution imposing “irreversible” parameters on Israel for the creation of a Palestinian state – with, say, a two-year deadline – could be exactly what the Biden-Harris administration is planning in the next three months.

    This, despite the clearly exposed annihilationist character (towards Israel) of the Palestinian national movement; despite the invasion of Israel by Hamas on October 7 and the support of Fatah (Palestinian Authority/PA) for this attack; despite Mahmoud Abbas’ “pay to kill” program; despite the virtual takeover by Hamas militias of a large part of Samaria, etc.

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    Additional punitive measures against Israel that the outgoing Biden administration is likely to take include recognizing future Palestinian sovereignty in East Jerusalem – to compensate, or “atone for” the move of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem by the Trump administration.

    I also expect a declaration that the PA is the legitimate ruler in Gaza, and a renunciation of the 2019 “Pompeo Declaration” which recognized Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria as “not inherently incompatible with international law.”

    In fact, Washington is planning additional sanctions against right-wing and pro-settlement Israeli civil society organizations, ranging from Amana to Regavim (as Canada, Australia and others have already done).

    And Biden might also be hutzpadik enough, confident and brazen, to hit elected Israeli public figures, like ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, with personal sanctions.

    The Biden-Harris administration could also suggest to the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) that it would now welcome war crimes indictments against Israeli leaders.

    Worst of all is the threat of an embargo on any further US arms supplies to Israel. It’s imminent.

    On October 13, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin gave Israel a 30-day warning to let more humanitarian aid into Gaza or face undesirable “implications.” specified.

    Their official warning letter referenced NSM-20, which is a memorandum from the United States National Security Council that authorizes “appropriate next steps” if a country receiving U.S. military aid is found to be in non-compliance with prior assurances to authorize the delivery of humanitarian aid.

    “Such remedial measures could include actions ranging from renewal of assurances to suspension of any further transfer of defense articles or, where applicable, defense services,” the memorandum said.

    Other laws that could be invoked against Israel include Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act and the Leahy Act, which prohibit the U.S. government from providing military assistance or selling weapons to countries that restrict humanitarian aid or violate human rights.

    As next week’s presidential election approaches, the Biden-Harris administration has moved away from such measures and has only slowed the delivery of some key military spare parts and sophisticated munitions types.

    But you can sense how, in its final days, the Biden-Harris administration is champing at the bit to act on its most “progressive” impulses: hitting insolent Israel and reorienting US policy in the Middle East away from Israel.

    This could possibly include a rash last-minute proposal to Iran for a soft and dangerous new nuclear deal.

    After November 5, be careful!

    Many of these hostile measures can be reversed by presidential executive order or fixed by wise secretaries of state and defense in a friendlier, more strategically sensible next U.S. administration.

    But repairing the long-term damage of a UN Security Council resolution with imperative parameters and daunting deadlines will be much more difficult.

    And the very precedent of an openly declared interruption of arms supplies to Israel by the United States would also be terribly damaging, even if it were then reversed and generously overcompensated with a massive increase in arms transfers.

    Trump may be able to ward off some of the worst instincts and schemes of the wounded Biden-Harris team by making clear, as early as November 6, that he will not tolerate such shenanigans.

    He can and should declare that when he takes office on January 20, he will act quickly to reverse any radical deviation in U.S. policy toward Israel (or toward Iran) and will restore the closest U.S.-Israeli coordination .

    SOME OF Biden-Harris’ nastier moves may require corrective action from Congress. Republican leaders in Congress will need to demonstrate diligence and determination to reverse extreme Democratic measures against Israel.

    They can quickly thwart the ICC’s actions against Israel with harsh US retaliation against Court officials.

    And here’s something more that would be HUGE! Future President-elect Trump could usefully help end Israel’s current wars with the crushing victories they must be (!), by making it clear that Israel must crush its enemies massively.

    This would be a radical departure from the Biden-Harris administration’s constant noxious, equivocal, weak and far-fetched complaint that wars “must end”, “must end now” and “must end immediately”, and that we “need a ceasefire immediately.” Oh, and while Israel “has the right” to defend itself, it “must respect” international law (which apparently only applies to Israel and in a distorted way) while fighting its enemies.

    This is particularly important as Israel prepares, in the coming months, to degrade Iran’s hegemonic military posture more decisively than ever.

    Trump does not want America to be drawn into a full-scale war in the Middle East any more than Biden does, but Trump can be expected to be better at providing Israel with the diplomatic and material defenses it will need.

    The writer is executive director and senior researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, based in Jerusalem. The opinions expressed here are his own. His columns on diplomacy, defense, politics and the Jewish world over the past 27 years can be found at davidmweinberg.com.



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