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What if the looming November heat in Ontario was actually cold? Imagine an inversion at 30°C

Pabio November 3, 2024

After a Record-breaking Halloween partyOntario and Quebec are bracing for another unusual heatwave this week, pushing temperatures near 20C in early November – a comfort, perhaps, but also a sign of deeper climate change.

During the mild fall season, extreme heat goes unnoticed. This is “comfort bias” in action, our natural tendency to overlook climate change when the weather is pleasant. Instead of worrying about records, we’re enjoying a break from the winter cold, while the atmosphere feels more like late September than November.

DON’T MISS: Snowy Surprises Can Cover Canada During a Typical November

Temperatures seem comfortable and your furnace is enjoying a break from its usual November hum. But this autumn heat masks a more extreme trend developing in the atmosphere.

Tuesday in Ontario, temperatures deviate from normal maximum temperatures

Let’s set the stage for this next heat, then flip the script to see what the opposite extreme would look like.

First, what are the normal highs and lows for November 5th and 6th?

Windsor: 11°C/3°C
London: 10°C/1°C
Hamilton: 10°C/2°C
Toronto: 10°C/2°C
Barrie: 9°C/0°C
Ottawa: 9°C/0°C

Conditions forecast for Tuesday night in Ontario

Tuesday evening, the temperature will be around 20°C, a bit like Halloween eveningwhich means temperatures will be 15 degrees above normal!

What if heat was actually cold?

Now let’s flip the script.

Imagine if Tuesday night’s temperature was more than 15 degrees below normal instead of -12°C, the streets would be lined with people in winter gear, the breath visible in the crisp air, and the furnaces would be operating at full throttle.

A frigid November would make headlines and winter habits should be adopted almost immediately.

Here is the scenario with Tuesday evening more than 30 degrees cooler than expected.

Opposite anomaly Tuesday evening Ontario

This would completely change commuters’ routines and spend much less time outdoors. Instead, we are enjoying unusually warm weather that may seem harmless, but is a sign of a climate system where deviations from normal are increasingly common.

So while a warm November feels like a gift, it’s a warning.

These trends are not just anomalies, but part of a larger trend: Our climate system is warming, and with it comes the disruption of seasons and familiar routines.