NNew Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has his work cut out for him: his Seattle-area assembly workers are on strike; customers and regulators are asking him to fix manufacturing quality problems with the company’s commercial aircraft; and its defense and space division bleeds red ink. But if voters return former President Donald Trump to the White House in the Nov. 5 election, he could face a host of new problems.

During his election campaign, Trump promised to impose draconian tariffs on imports, triggering trade wars that could make those fought under his first administration resemble a water gun fight. Defense spending and exports could be at risk, analysts say, and conservative ambitions to overhaul the Federal Aviation Administration could cause unrest at a time when the agency is deeply engaged in diagnosing and fixing systemic problems at Boeing .

The Republican presidential candidate has proposed tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all countries that trade with the United States, and tariffs of 60 percent on China.

Trump and his supporters say it would bring manufacturing back to the United States. The Coalition for a Prosperous America, an industry-backed group that has pushed for more trade protections, projects that a 10% universal tariff would create 2.8 million jobs.

For Boeing and the rest of the U.S. commercial aerospace industry, which generated a $47 billion trade surplus in 2023, the tariffs and the retaliation they could inspire would be “absolutely ruinous if enacted as planned.” “, said Richard Aboulafia, Managing Director of AeroDynamic. Advisory. “Tariffs could work provided the other side does nothing, and history says that’s the stupidest hypothesis ever.”

A new trade war with China would be a bitter setback for Boeing, which has been yearning to resume sales in one of the world’s most lucrative jetliner markets after those came to a virtual halt when the Trump administration imposed tariffs on a wide range of Chinese products. products. In 2018, 24% of Boeing aircraft deliveries were destined for China. But from 2019 to December 2023, there have been none.

The tariffs would lead to higher parts prices for Boeing, which has a global supply chain. On the 787, around 30% of the widebody’s 2.3 million parts come from abroad. This includes wing components from Japanese and South Korean companies, rudders made in China and landing gear and engines from the UK. Sourcing parts from other countries has helped Boeing sell ink to airlines in those countries, including Japan and China, where the company has tried for decades to build what it bills as a mutually beneficial partnership. Chinese companies supply parts for everyone Boeing commercial aircraft.

“There is going to be a deep period of uncertainty between what Trump says he wants to do and what Congress might allow him to do.”

The United States got a taste of the damage caused by tariffs after the Trump administration in 2018 imposed 25% tariffs on most steel imports and a 10% levy on aluminum. The pain they inflicted on companies that used these metals outweighed the benefits to U.S. steel and aluminum producers, according to a study by the United States International Trade Commission. Domestic production increased by $2.3 billion by 2021, but tariffs cut production by $3.5 billion at U.S. makers of products such as tools, auto parts and machines, the ITC found.

These and other tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on $350 billion in Chinese imports in 2018 and 2019 may actually have resulted in a net loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs, economists have estimatedbecause foreign retaliation and rising costs have destroyed more jobs than import barriers have created.

Congress has delegated authority to the executive branch to impose tariffs and could potentially keep Trump in check. “At the very least, there is going to be a deep period of uncertainty between what Trump says he wants to do and what Congress might allow him to do.” ” said Byron Callan, aerospace and defense analyst at Capital Alpha Partners.

Another area of ​​uncertainty for Boeing and other defense contractors: what a second Trump administration would mean for defense spending. Trump’s last acting defense secretary, Christopher Miller, claimed the defense budget could be cut in half, while Trump promised to bring billionaire Elon Musk into his cabinet to cut federal spending. “Put aside the rhetoric of ‘oh, the Republican Party is strong on defense’ and look at the reality of what people are saying,” Callan said. “There is a pretty deep gap between these two views.”

On the plus side for Boeing, as it considers divesting non-core assets, including in its underperforming space business, a second Trump administration could ease restrictions on mergers and acquisitions and taxes on private equity firms . “You could have a supercharged M&A environment,” Aboulafia said.

But the Pentagon will likely continue to oppose large consolidations that could hamper competition, Callan said. “Could you see Boeing merging with Northrop Grumman? No,” he said.

If Trump were to end U.S. support for Ukraine if he regained the White House, leaving Europe threatened by a mobilized Russian army, it would increase European military spending even further, Callan said, but it would likely make it even more urgently to do so with its own defense contractors. . “There would be all kinds of questions about the reliability of the United States as a defense supplier.”

Another potential threat to Boeing could be a new attempt to kill the Export-Import Bank, which provides federally subsidized financing for U.S. automakers’ overseas sales. Critics have called it Boeing’s bank because the large portion of its loans went to the aircraft maker. Project 2025, a Heritage Foundation plan for a second Trump administration, calls for abolish the bank. His term in Congress expires at the end of 2026.

Conservative aspirations to radically restructure the Federal Aviation Administration could create turmoil within the agency at a time when it is deeply engaged with Boeing to improve the aircraft maker’s manufacturing quality. Project 2025 propose privatize the air traffic control system and raise user fees to raise money for the chronically underfunded agency.