The game of the week finds No. 4 Ohio State on the road at Happy Valley in a marquee matchup against No. 3 Penn State in Week 10 college football on Saturday. Here’s what you need to pay attention to, along with our updated predictions for the game.

“Everything” may not be on the line for Ohio State here, but with one loss already on the books, its Big Ten and playoff hopes would take a serious hit with another road loss to a conference opponent of high rank.

Penn State has more room to run, becoming one of college football’s few undefeated teams and working behind another strong defense and home-field advantage as head coach James Franklin finally looks to gain an edge over the Buckeyes, and really any team in the top five. .

What can we expect as the Nittany Lions host the Buckeyes in this Big Ten matchup?

Here’s what you need to watch out for as Ohio State and Penn State face off in this Week 10 college football rivalry game, with our updated prediction on what happens.

1. Fight on the line. All eyes are on the Buckeyes’ blindside after star left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the year due to injury, and then his replacement, Zen Michalski, had his own problem.

The line was an issue in a close win against a Nebraska defense that allowed 56 points to Indiana the previous week, leading to season-low offensive production for the Buckeyes, especially on the land.

Now this unit faces a Penn State front seven that is among the most physical and aggressive in the country, racking up 46 negative plays, averaging 2 sacks per game and allowing 93 rushing yards per game.

2. On the ground. Ohio State is No. 2 nationally in total defense and No. 6 against the run, allowing just 5 touchdowns and just 2.84 yards per carry against opposing running backs, and now lines up against Penn’s dynamic duo State in the backfield.

Kaytron Allen has 509 rushing yards this season and Nicholas Singleton has 493 more for an offense that ranks 28th in the FBS with 5.13 yards per carry and 13 total touchdowns.

3. Injury monitoring. Drew Allar leads the Big Ten in yards and touchdowns over the past 2 years, but the quarterback’s 20-game streak is an open question after his injury last week at Wisconsin. The signs point to his play, but any limitations on his part could derail Penn State’s offensive efforts.

But even if he were to take the field, the Nittany Lions could still use backup Beau Pribula, who helped win last week’s game with a touchdown and is a credible threat in his own right and adds a dose of unpredictability, which can pose a real danger. go on the offensive if things slow down.

Most analytical models give the Buckeyes an advantage over the Nittany Lions in this one.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

How does this model predict events in Happy Valley this weekend?

Ohio State came out on top in the majority 60.9 percent computer simulations for the game, while Penn State emerged as the presumptive winner in the other 39.1 percent sims.

And when it comes to margin of victory? Expect a close game, but one that covers the spread.

Ohio State should be 4 points better than Penn State on the same field in computer simulations, according to the model’s latest predictions.

Ohio State was 28.4 points better than their opponents have averaged so far this season when taking into account their goal margins in wins and losses.

Penn State was 19 points better than its competitors on average in 2024.

Over the last three games, however, these numbers have gotten much closer.

Ohio State is 10.3 points better than its opponents over this period, while Penn State averaged 11.3 points better than the other team during this period.

Penn State dominated at home, averaging 23.3 points more than the competition when he plays in Beaver Stadium.

Ohio State was 16 points better on a rough average in road games, although these results are skewed, beating Michigan State by 31 and losing to Oregon by 1.

Ohio State is a 3.5 point favorites against Penn State, according to FanDuel Sportsbook lines.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And that set the money odds for Ohio State at -150 and for Penn State at +125 to win outright.

This is starting to sound a little too familiar at Penn State. Four times in the last seven years, the Nittany Lions were undefeated before the Buckeyes handed them that first crushing loss.

But while Happy Valley waits for James Franklin to transform into Jim Harbaugh and finally break that curse with a winning streak of his own, this match still suggests otherwise.

Penn State’s defensive performance is admirable, but consider the competition. He has yet to face an offense that ranks in the top 30 nationally and has lined up against just one in the top 50 in throwing the ball, and that was against a team in the USC who led by two touchdowns at one point before Tyler Warren almost single-handedly led this comeback. .

And he hasn’t faced a defense of Ohio State’s caliber, let alone a rotation of blue-chip players on offense that will stretch the Nittany Lions’ secondary lineup early and often.

There is a marked skill gap between the type of receiving speed the Buckeyes can put on the field, especially when combined with a 1-2 punch in the backfield averaging 5.44 yards per carry with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins balancing things out.

But expect it to be a game until the fourth quarter, as Penn State rushers hustle Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard in the pocket and force him to make rushing throws before his guys can open.

Howard has some strategic mobility that can help him extend these plays when the pressure is on, but he doesn’t have the kind of speed that can easily outsmart the Nittany Lions’ pursuers consistently, especially with this glaring issue at left tackle. remains to be resolved.

That keeps this game close throughout, but eventually the dam breaks, and Ohio State not only has the bodies up front to force Allar — if he plays, and he’s always struggled under pressure — into his own blunders, but the speed to get the better of this defense when it counts.

College football HQ chooses…

More… Ohio State vs. Penn State Score Prediction by Expert Model

When: Saturday November 2
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern Time
Television: Fox network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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