Certainly, there have been sustained efforts to implement a vision of governance in post-junta Myanmar. Many resisters are committed to the idea of ​​a federal state, although agreement on the details of this vision of federalism remains to be achieved.

An important proposal came in the form of Federal Democratic Charter introduced just a month after the coup by the Advisory Council for National Unity, the NUG’s advisory body. A separate proposal supported by 12 political parties was introduced in February. Neither succeeded in mustering sufficiently broad support within the resistance.

“The Government of National Unity and many resistance organizations talk about a federal-democratic Myanmar, and that is a strong and essential commitment, but too little work has been done so far to flesh out that commitment and make it give content,” says Sidoti. . “We need an egalitarian society in which there is a high level of autonomy at the regional level, but international leadership through a national government. »

In at least one state, a hybrid model of governance is already being tested, with significant success. The Karenni State Interim Executive Council established administrations in 16 townships across the state, all elected by residents and comprised of leaders representing civil society and ethnic communities. This model of decentralized authority is unprecedented in the state, which before the coup had local leaders appointed by the central government.

“We call it bottom-up federalism,” says Khu Plu Reh, secretary-general of the Karenni State Interim Executive Council. “Recognition of the self-determination of each ethnic group is very important.”

Khu Plu Reh says he is not sure whether this model can be replicated across the country, but that it is a “very appropriate model for Karenni State at this time”. Yet this policy innovation sparked the intrigue of other ethnic leaders who, according to Khu Phu Reh, contacted them to learn more about their vision of governance.

There are doubts about the NUG’s ability to lead the charge to bring lasting peace to Myanmar. It has limited influence on the ground, where it has joined forces with different ethnic armed groups to fight the junta, but has failed to find political consensus among its partners.

Many rebel ethnic groups are cautiously skeptical of the NUG leaders, who have not proven themselves to be the greatest defenders of the country’s ethnic minorities. While Aung San Suu Kyi’s government was associated with the fight for democracy and human rights, it was also criticized for its striking silence on the military’s brutal campaign against the Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic group in Rakhine state who now constitute one of the world’s largest refugee groups, most residing in exile in camps in neighboring Bangladesh.

Some temporary partnerships with the NUG are already falling apart. In September, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a powerful pro-China ethnic armed group that is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, publicly rejected the idea of ​​working militarily or politically with the NUG and said it would not contribute to anti-junta efforts in the Shan state capital of Taunggyi or Mandalay.

Time is running out for the NUG, whose job analysts say will become more difficult as the junta weakens. “The NUG will no longer have this type of central power after the collapse of the army”says Lee of SAC-M. “And they cannot wait, for example, to win the war, until the army collapses, and then think about how to form a new future Myanmar. »

There is a lot of uncertainty, observers all agree, but there is also hope. The past three years of struggle against the junta have fostered new ties between the different resistance factions, even if negotiations between the different stakeholders for a post-war Myanmar remain difficult.

“We may see tensions in the future, but the commitment to a federal-democratic Myanmar is now so widespread and so deeply rooted in the aspirations of the people that there is an opportunity like never before, and there is has signs like never before of a commitment to national policy. unity,” says Sidoti. “That’s what we need to encourage. It can be built on that foundation, and I think it will be, but it will take hard work.

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