close
close

Le-verdict

News with a Local Lens

8 Wild Stats From the Minnesota Twins’ 2024 Season – Twins
minsta

8 Wild Stats From the Minnesota Twins’ 2024 Season – Twins

12-27. It’s the stat that will be remembered most from the 2024 campaign. It was the Twins’ win/loss record over the past six weeks, having reached a record 17 games above .500 at the mid-August.

But there were plenty of other numbers involved in this past season, many of which help tell interesting stories about what happened with the team and its players. Digging deeper into player stats in the wake of the 2024 season, these eight really stood out to me.

Matt Wallner had a .389 batting average on balls in play.
This is simply a surprisingly high number. He ranked second in all of baseball among players with 200 or more plate appearances, behind Xavier Edwards (.398), and it’s kind of funny that these two are at the top of the list because their styles couldn’t be more opposite. (Edwards is a small, extreme contact, powerless guy, similar to Luis Arraez.)

Wallner’s batting profile played a role in turning so many batted balls into hits – when you crush the ball consistently, you’ll find fewer gloves – but there was a lot of luck in his handling of a .259 hitting average. struck out in 36% of plate appearances. Wallner’s K rate was fifth highest among players with over 200 PA, and no one else in the top 10 had a batting average above .214.

In other words, Wallner will need to significantly reduce strikeouts next year, otherwise we can expect a big drop in average and overall production.

The Twins had 3 hitters finish with a wOBA above .340.
I’m not just talking about skilled hitters. I’m talking about all hitters. (Well, wait Diego Castillowho posted a wOBA of .439 in eight plate appearances.) The only Twins players to post a wOBA of .340 or higher in 2024 were Wallner (.385), Carlos Correa (.385) and Byron Buxton (.366), and none played more than 102 games. From there it goes down to Trevor Larnach who came in fourth with a wOBA of .336.

This says a lot about why the lineup was so disappointing. There just weren’t enough notable producers. For comparison, in 2023 the Twins had seven hitters with a wOBA of .340 or better: Royce LewisWallner, Ryan Jeffers, Édouard Julien, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff And Jorge Polanco. Everyone other than Polanco returned in 2024, but only Wallner was able to repeat his strong performance — and only after spending the first half in Triple-A.

Griffin Jax induced swings on 41.2% of out-of-zone pitches.
There are many stats that could be cited to highlight Jax’s greatness in 2024, but I really like this one. One of the most effective things a pitcher can do is get opposing hitters to chase outside the zone, and Jax was masterful at it, leading the American League in percentage above.

This reflects how Jax completely baffles opposing hitters with his fastball/sweeper combo, which ranks among the most dominant pitch pairs in the game.

Only 5 of the Twins’ 17 hitters had above-average sprint speed.
You probably noticed that this was a slow team. The evidence confirms this. The Twins only had five runners above average in 2024, and I was slightly surprised to learn that Wallner was one of them. The others are less surprising: Byron Buxton, Austin Martin, Willi Castro, Manuel Margot.

Some of the names at the bottom of this list actually surprise me more. Christian Vazquez the last ranking is expected, but the second slowest is Brooks Leewhose sprint speed ranks in the 13th percentile. Slower than Ryan Jeffers. Slower than a 38 year old first baseman Carlos Santana. I have to be one of the slowest infielders we’ve ever faced.

Jhoan Duran‘s xERA (2.70), FIP (2.85), and xFIP (2.70) were all almost lower than his ERA (3.64).
These numbers all tell the same story: Durán has been extremely unlucky this season, and he has pitched much better than an inflated ERA or nine losses would suggest. It’s pretty easy to argue that he performed just as well as he did in 2023, when he finished with a 2.45 ERA, but things happen in baseball: bad sequencing, bad defense, general bad luck.

Durán led the team in ground ball rate; in fact, he ranked sixth in baseball. He allowed fewer walks and fewer home runs than the year before. His strikeout rate was very good. Even losing a few speed tics, Durán did all the important things at a top level, which is why everyone should have full confidence in him for the future.

Louie Varland gave up home runs on 21.1% of balls allowed.
Nearly one in four balls thrown by opposing batters against Varland left the field. It’s wild. Even for someone who doesn’t pitch well, that’s an extraordinary HR/FB rate. For context, the leader among qualified pitchers was Boston’s reliever. Zack Kelly at 20.8%, and only seven MLB relievers (no starters) were above 17%.

I find it remarkable that xFIP, which attempts to normalize HR rate, had Varland at 4.14 this year compared to his ERA of 7.61. It’s kind of stupid to say, “If you take away all the home runs, he didn’t pitch that bad!” » But is there any truth in that? I’m optimistic about Lou’s future.

Edouard Julien struck out 175 times between the majors and minors.
After an excellent rookie season, Julien’s patient approach gave way to passivity as pitchers took control, in the major leagues and even in Triple-A where he struck out in over 30%. of his appearances at the plate.

Only one Twins hitter in history has struck out more than 175 times in a season and you can probably guess who it is: Miguel Sano. In fact, Sanó is the only Twin to strike out more than 150 times in a season. While high-level hitters like him and Wallner can whiff at that pace and still provide value, I’m not sure the same is true for Julien.

Alex Kirilloff had an online driving rate of 13%.
This was the lowest of any Twins hitter and lower than any skilled hitter in baseball. In 2023, Kirilloff’s 30.9% line drive rate led the team and would have led all qualified hitters. It’s a stark display of how his game has fallen off after that strong 2023 campaign, with an undisclosed back injury surely playing a role.

The Twins find themselves in a difficult situation with Kirilloff this offseasonwho must pay nearly $2 million in arbitration next year. They know he can be a one-liner spray force at his best, but also that he was far from that version this season, and now faces a fourth straight offseason of health uncertainty.

LEAVE A RESPONSE

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *