I will say from the outset that this article will be quite heavy on statistics.

I like to do in-depth analysis like this early in the season because it can help highlight some developing trends and give us an idea of ​​how a team is performing with underlying numbers that can often be more predictive than wins and losses.

If that’s not your cup of tea, this might be a column you don’t want to miss.

After their big victory against the Winnipeg Jets Monday, the Toronto Maple Leafs are 5-4-1 in their first 10 games, a 90-point pace. That’s usually not enough to make the playoffs, but let’s be real: It’s very early to worry about such projections.

Under the hood, there is both good and bad news regarding the way the Leafs have been playing. Below, I break down their results in different situations and compare them to a year ago, when the Leafs finished 10th overall with 102 points in the standings.

After some big off-season additions, particularly to the blue line, the front office is hoping this group can take a step forward from last season, especially in the playoffs. So let’s dig in and discuss the good, the bad and the ugly of the start of the Leafs’ 2024-25 campaign.

An assist goes to Hockey in evolution for the majority of the data used here.

Leafs at even strength

What’s interesting about watching the Leafs at even strength so far is that they have a very similar profile to last season’s team. They’re one of the highest scoring teams in the league, per minute, and they generate a lot of looks at the net and scoring chances (which I’ve used expected goals, or xG, to represent). ).

What we’re not seeing so far, however, are tangible defensive improvements at five-on-five, which is surprising given the additions of Chris Tanev And Olivier Ekman-Larsson at the back. It’s only been 10 games, and there have been some very impressive performances, but it’s clear that new coach Craig Berube’s system is still a work in progress.

There’s no way he’ll settle for 18th in chances against by the end of the season.

The biggest change, really, for this team at even strength, came in goal. Goalkeeper Behemoth Anthony Stolarz was a revelation, and it helped mitigate the fact that their shot and chance prevention was relatively average.

At five against five, Stolarz is second in NHL in goals saved above expectations so far, which is one of the main reasons the Leafs’ even-strength goal differential is sixth-best in the league. If he can continue to play well and they tighten up a little more in their own end, they should take a step forward in one of the most important areas this season.

The other thing to note is who has been on the ice when all those quality chances present themselves. So far, the first line is actually one of the most porous, with Matthew KniesAuston Matthews and Mitch Marner having scored more than three goals every 60 minutes at five-on-five early on.

The good news? They’re well over that mark, so overall their goal differential is strong (58 percent with Matthews on the ice), but this top line has posted much better chance suppression numbers in the past. I suspect they can get back to it in time as they get used to having Knies on LW and different defenders on the ice with them.

Speaking of which: the biggest bright spot in the chance-suppression department has clearly been Tanev. He’s posted 2.05 expected goals per 60 minutes so far, which puts him in the league’s top 20 among big-minute defenders.

They get their money out of his new contract early. And he brings an element that they just didn’t have in that department a year ago.

The Leafs on the power play

This is obviously a major problem. Probably their biggest.

We’ve seen this using the eye test over the course of 10 games, with both Leafs units struggling to generate much so far. It’s so bad that almost the entire decline in the Leafs’ offense (from 3.63 goals per game last season – when they were the second most dangerous team in the NHL – up 3.20 so far this year) comes on the power play, where Toronto has scored a measly 0.30 goals per game.

The underlying numbers show they’ve been a bit unlucky, as highlighted by the massive drop in shooting percentage, but such a talented group ranking 19th in shot attempts and 12th in scoring chances when led by a man is unacceptable.

It’s not often that a special team is solely responsible for a team’s decline in the standings, but that’s indeed what’s happening here early on. Adjust the power play and the Leafs should be at least as good as the 102-point team they were a year ago.

Probably better, as we’ll see below.

Your move, Marc Savard.

The Leafs shorthanded

There are certainly positive signs here. Nothing is certain at this point, but early indications are that the Leafs should be significantly better than the ugly 76.9 percent PK they were putting out a year ago.

It is important to analyze the suppression of shots and shot attempts on the PK because it is an indicator of the time teams spend in the zone shorthanded, something that has clearly decreased thanks to a new system and a best staff.

One thing that stands out is that the Leafs have been downright dominant with Matthews on the ice shorthanded, allowing just 4.66 expected goals per 60, which puts him among the best shorthanded forwards in the league. This should worsen his Selke case from a year ago, when he finished third in the voting for best defensive forwards.

The Jake McCabe-Tanev duo also produced good results on PK1.

The biggest problem I see so far on the penalty kill is that the Leafs are taking way too many penalties. They rank second-to-last in the NHL in time spent against a man so far this season, the result of being shorthanded 4.1 times per game.

That’s more than 40 percent more than a year ago.

So much time spent on the PK puts a lot of pressure on players like Tanev, and even Matthews and Marner, who could do more damage offensively if deployed more at even strength.

Being more disciplined will be a big factor in the Leafs winning more games here down the stretch. Please note: Simon Benoit And Max Domi are among the NHL leaders in minor penalties called per 60 minutes played thus far, which is not a list you want to be on.

The Leafs as a whole: first conclusions we can draw

I’ve already highlighted many of the key takeaways from this table above, but the overall numbers reinforce where the Leafs have fallen behind.

However, nothing here is a fatal flaw – assuming they can flip the power play, as that brings down the goals per game and shooting percentage numbers almost single-handedly.

The priority checklist for Bérubé should look like this in the next 20 or so games:

1. Fix the power play, at least to the point where it’s better than league average

2. Stop taking unnecessary and stupid penalties, especially when protecting a lead

3. Lean on Tanev to continue implementing the new defensive system and reduce the chances against

4. Facilitate more support ratings from people like Max Pacioretty giving opportunities to depth players with the stars

5. Incorporate healthy players (Joseph Woll, Jani Hakanpää, Järnkrok Street And Connor Dewar) to improve contributions deeper into programming

If the Leafs can do all of this by midseason, and then make an addition at center ice before the March 7 trade deadline, they have a chance to be a better, more playoff-ready team. playoffs than a year ago.

There’s a lot to accomplish, but they’re not insurmountable problems given the personnel they have and the trends we’re seeing over the first month of the season.

(Photo by Chris Tanev and Anthony Stolarz: John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)