After finishing second for the award as a rookie, Victor Wembanyama entered the 2024-25 season as one of the biggest favorites of all time to win the Defensive Player of the Year award.

There’s just one problem: Chet Holmgren didn’t get that memo.

It’s still very early in the season and it’s certainly too early to talk about it, but the defensive player of the first week was Holmgren, not Wembanyama. To be clear, both players have been dominant, but when you look closer, Holmgren has been better and has a much easier path to winning the award.

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Why Chet Holmgren is Victor Wembanyama’s biggest competition for DPOY

Holmgren has been the best rim protector so far

Wembanyama was the league’s best rim protector last year, averaging 3.6 blocks per game. He’s down to 2.7 per game this year, perhaps because players aren’t stupid enough to challenge him that much.

The impressive swats are still there. For example, watch when Wemby tricked Houston’s Tari Eason into thinking there was an opening for a quick dunk:

Wemby stayed with Tari Eason for over 50 feet to get that chase block…

Few centers can do that, even less 7’5″ centers pic.twitter.com/AOcJGdShiu

– WembyMuse (@Wemby_Muse) October 29, 2024

Players are taking on the challenge of climbing the Holmgren Highrise much more frequently, and it’s not going well for them. He leads the league in baskets defended from within six feet and no one has blocked more shots than him so far this season.

Other defensive stats show that Holmgren also has an early advantage.

If Holmgren continues to average 4.0 blocks per game, this would be the highest total since Dikembe Mutombo’s 4.5 per game in 1996. It would be difficult to deny him the award at this stage.

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Holmgren has the best story

Wembanyama is probably a better defender than Holmgren, based on talent alone. Wemby might be the best defender the NBA has ever seen given his 8-foot wingspan and good mobility. But like other awards, the DPOY is largely focused on storytelling. This usually goes to a guy from one of the best defenses in the league.

Look at the last 10 winners as proof:

Holmgren’s Thunder team will likely finish with the best defense in the league. They are classified No. 1 by a mile at the moment while Wembanyama’s Spurs are 19th.

It’s not all because of Holmgren. The Thunder have the best assortment of perimeter defenders in the league. Led by two-time All-Defensive member Alex Caruso, they also have Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That’s six of the league’s top 25 perimeter defenders, all stacked on the same team. It makes Holmgren’s job a lot easier when he has teammates who can contain the ball like them.

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Wembanyama has the exact opposite setup going for him.

None of Wemby’s teammates succeeded Sporting News Top 100 Defenders List. He joined what was at the time the worst defense in NBA history, and the Spurs still face most of the same guys on that roster. New additions Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes can’t keep up nearly the same level as they did a decade ago and are below average on-ball defenders at their position due to their age. Wemby has to carry this defense single-handedly, and the fact that he’s getting them to a near-average level is a miracle.

It would be a huge change in precedent to give Wembanyama this award, no matter how dominant he is if the Spurs don’t finish in the top 10 on defense. The only player to do so in the 2000s was Marcus Camby, whose 2006-07 Nuggets ranked 11th.

It’s still so early in the season that all that could change, but Holmgren is taking a surprising lead. It’s up to Wembanyama to take the award away from him.