With the US federal elections next Tuesday, tension is rising even north of the border.

More than 600,000 Americans living in Canada are eligible to vote in next week’s election, and even Canadian citizens have a lot to gain from the outcome.

The race for the U.S. presidency is so close that Americans living in Canada could make the difference, according to Bruce Heyman, former U.S. ambassador to Canada.

“Canada cannot influence our elections, and Canadians should not be involved in them,” Heyman said, “but Americans living in Canada might actually be the determining factor here.”

Democrats generally have more influence in the Canadian expat vote, outnumbering Republicans in Canada by about three to one, but voter turnout could influence this influence.

Typically, Americans in Canada have a very low voter turnout rate – between six and eight percent.

However, both Republicans and Democrats are working to change this situation.

“Our voters are very motivated, and a lot of them who weren’t really interested in voting got their ballots and voted this time,” said Georganne Burke of Republicans Overseas.

“We’ll never see Canada’s 600,000 Americans vote, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that percentage go from eight percent to a little more.”

Diana Keto-Lambert of Democrats Abroad says her group is working to ensure American voters in Canada claim their ballots.

“We try to tell them as much as possible that their vote has a significant impact, not only on the presidential race, but also on down votes. So, they vote for senators and for the House, which is always up both”. years, it is extremely important to pass laws,” Keto-Lambert said.

“So that’s something we do through voter education and voter registration drives and letting people know. In college, we had students who would say to us, ‘Well, I’ve never lived there- low Can I even vote?’ Well, you absolutely can. It’s your right, and I would say your duty.

Even though Canadians have no say in American elections, they have a stake in their outcome.

Both candidates propose protectionist economic policies and Kamala Harris is an environmental advocate, making many fear her stance on resource development.

But Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, says Donald Trump’s administration may not be better for Alberta’s oil and gas industry.

“A Harris administration would really represent a great continuity from a (Joe) Biden administration. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced a lot of subsidies for renewable energy production. I imagine that would continue ” Young said.

“I think Trump wouldn’t be as supportive of renewable energy, but I’m not sure he would welcome Canadian or Alberta oil as some might imagine. He called the tar sands “dirty oil” and expressed real ambitions. for the US to be a significant producer of its own oil, so perhaps not such a victory for oil and gas. »

The CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce says it’s Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on “anything that comes from outside the United States” that’s making her lose sleep.

“I’ve never been so nervous because I’m really, really scared of what could happen,” Deborah Yedlin said.

“A 10 percent tariff on our energy exports — $166 billion goes to the United States from an energy standpoint, so 10 percent, $16 billion — that’s a huge hit when you consider Calgary as an energy capital.”

Yedlin says it’s not just the energy sector that would be hit hard by drastic tariffs, but almost every sector of the Canadian economy.

“We know that 78 percent of Canada’s exports go south. 90 percent of Alberta’s exports go south. So we’re talking about agriculture, (we’re talking about) energy, we’re talking about inputs that eventually end up in Canada and return to the United States,” she said.

“It’s a supply chain issue, and how are you going to untangle those supply chains from a pricing standpoint? … That should be a major concern from an economic standpoint.”

Political analysts say the Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement may only offer temporary protection to Canada.

This is because it must be renegotiated in 2026.

Trump has already said he wants to renegotiate, and Harris voted against it from the start.