Happy Tuesday blog readers-

Tomorrow is an extremely rare situation to see at this time of year in the Great Plains. Typically, the KC region experiences two to five Level 3 risk days in a given calendar year, climatologically speaking, and keep in mind that these favor warm months. But this year, October is behaving like a hot month. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the Kansas City area at Level 3 out of 5 risk, or increased risk, of severe weather tomorrow.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

This is our 9th enhanced risk of the 2024 season, and it comes with the tagline “Significant Tornado.” This means there is a greater chance of large, destructive tornadoes occurring *if* the right storm comes along, not necessarily that we will see one.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

Thanks to the heat pattern we have maintained this month, our atmosphere’s ability to be “responsive” is preserved. Normally at this time of year the risk of tornadoes is extremely low.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

But we see that Douglas, Jefferson, Doniphan, Leavenworth and Atchison County are included in the risk for significant and devastating tornadoes. The good news is that this window will be short-lived and will keep confidence lower overall. This isn’t great news, because as we continue to see climate change add heat to the fall season, we are seeing an uptick in these rare fall events.

In fact, not too long ago we had a big day of severe weather in mid-December, the derecho of 12-15-2021. So it’s certainly difficult to warm up our colder months here in the Great Plains.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

We have seen this major tornado hatch three times in the past year; May 6, 2024on April 26-27, 2024. While we didn’t see any tornadoes reported in the KC area on May 6, we certainly were busy on April 26-27.

But this year has been remarkably active, it wasn’t until after the Linwood tornado (5/28/19) that a significant tornado trap was issued for our area.

All that being said, I believe some reason for this outbreak is that this is not a normal time of year to plan for tornado activity. As for the main impacts the KC area will experience, our weather team is focusing more on wind and hail issues.

So let’s talk chronology!

Wednesday 2 p.m.-6 p.m.
In the afternoon, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible. This is where we will focus on rotating thunderstorm issues, also remember that hail forms when thunderstorms begin to rotate. These storms will be quite high, meaning the base of the storm will be quite high in the sky and it will have to work very hard to rotate enough to produce a wall cloud. Nonetheless, this is our window to watch for any type of tornado activity. Here’s a look at what the radar might look like at 4 p.m.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

Around 6 p.m., this system shows signs of very rapid linearity. This means that isolated cells will come together and the cold front will begin to make its way through the region as a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. This is when broader action will be possible and heavy torrential rains will begin to fall on the metro.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

Wednesday 6 p.m. to 10 p.m.
This is our impact window for the major metropolitan area and at this point we should expire any EF2-5 tornado risk very quickly. When it comes to a line of storms, we primarily watch for damaging wind gusts that mostly hover around 56 to 70 mph. There is always a risk that a rapid cutting of the line will produce stronger winds, but I am not convinced that this line will pose a widespread mesovortex risk. Needless to say, be prepared for wind damage to roofs, fences and tree branches. You know how it goes when windstorms hit the heart of the metro. Here’s a look at what the radar might look like at 9 p.m.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

Wednesday 10 p.m. – 2 a.m.
After 10 p.m., this line of storms will quickly move eastward as it will be a mature QLCS. This means we will still be monitoring for damaging wind gusts in our eastern counties through the middle of the night.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

Summary

• Low confidence in severe supercell thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m., but if they trigger they could pose the risk of producing large hail and a significant tornado or two.
• Increased confidence in linear storms and wind damage between 6:00 p.m. and 2:00 a.m.
• Keep in mind that we could also pick up 1 to 2 inches of soaking rain with this storm system.