We’re about an eighth of the way through the NHL regular season, with the Toronto Maple Leafs having played 10 games so far. They are 5-4-1 – a .550 points percentage – and sit in third place in a tough Atlantic Division. Let’s take a look at some takeaways from the start of their season:

1. Stolarz should be the 1A

After presumptive starter Joseph Woll was put on shelves for the start of the season due to injury, 1B goalkeeper and new acquisition Anthony Stolarz had the opportunity to shine in a starter role. Woll has since returned, but the argument still stands that Stolarz should be given the bulk of the starts moving forward. Besides the fact that Woll looked terrible in his only start this season – he allowed four goals on 26 shots and boasted a negative-2 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) number .00 – Stolarz has provided solid, Vezina-caliber play thus far that should do the talking. for himself in terms of who should start.

Related: The Maple Leafs have a productive 2nd line with Nylander, Pacioretty and Tavares

Sure, his last two games haven’t lived up to what he showed early in the season, allowing eight goals on 57 shots, but his save percentage (SV%) still sits at a sublime .916 and his goals against average (GAA) remains at a more than solid level of 2.45. His last two starts have significantly reduced those stats and he still ranks among the league’s best in each of them. On top of that, he is a top 15 goalie in terms of GSAx despite posting a negative -2.41 in his last two starts. Simply put, Stolarz played well enough early in the season to justify giving him the lion’s share of starts until he proved too unreliable or Woll proved worthy of getting that many starts, or even more.

2. Stars’ slow starts are no problem

“Slow starts” is admittedly a bit of an overreaction here, but the fact is that the Maple Leafs’ star players have yet to live up to expectations from a spot production standpoint. Auston Matthews, who came close to 70 goals last season, has scored just four times so far and is at a pace of less than a point per game. Mitch Marner and William Nylander are both floating at or above the points per game mark, but given that both are one and two points shy of triple digits respectively, there has to be a bit more there too. Perhaps the only one of the Core Four who is performing at or above expectations is John Tavares, who has nine points in nine games and had a hat trick in last night’s game (October 28). ) against the Winnipeg Jets. On the defensive front, Morgan Rielly has also been mediocre to that extent with five points in 10 games, considering he topped the 68 point mark twice and played at a level above half a point per game in every season since. to 2017-18.

Given the group’s underlying statistics, the points and goals are sure to come. Each of the “Core Four” has an expected goals share (xGF%) of 53% or higher, meaning the Maple Leafs control more than 53% of expected goals (xG) when one of them is on. the ice cream. Almost always, higher xG shares indicate that a player is tilting the ice in their favor, and keeping in mind the offensive skills of these four players, it is almost certain that this unbalanced play will earn them more points at the future. Rielly’s xGF% of 54.38% is equally reassuring.

For Matthews, goals and points are as sure a bet as anything else. As he currently ranks among forwards with at least 100 minutes of five-on-five play, he has the seventh-best expected goal per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in the NHL, illustrating that the Maple Leafs generate a tonne offensive while on the ice. He ranks fifth in shot attempts per 60 minutes (CF/60), second in scoring chances per 60 minutes (SCF/60), and sixth in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF /60). On an individual level, no one in the league generates as many individual expected goals per 60 minutes (ixG/60) as him. The underlying stats are certainly there, and the points will come over time as a byproduct of his MVP-level play.

Marner is in a similar situation, with his xGF/60 ranking 10th in the NHL among forwards. He ranks 11th in CF/60 and is a top 10 forward in terms of SCF/60 and HDCF/60, which isn’t surprising considering he’s Matthews’ teammate. For him, although he is the only Maple Leaf with more points than games played, he too should see a slight increase in his production. Tavares and Nylander are a bit lower on these lists, but their underlying stats are still solid and they too should either maintain their current level of play or raise it a bit. Rielly is in the top 35 in xGF/60 among defensemen, although he is behind recently extended teammate Jake McCabe by 11 spots. If he continues to spend significant time alongside the Core Four, his point production will rebound to what fans have become accustomed to vicariously from these underperforming players compared to what their underlying metrics show.

3. The Maple Leafs need to be better early and late

The Maple Leafs are a high-octane team, capable of scoring on a spurt at any point in the game, especially given their superstar power. Still, they struggled through much of the games’ beginnings and endings. Their solace seemed to be the second period, where they outscored their opponents 16-10. However, in the first and third periods, they were dominated 10-9 and 11-7 respectively. They are 0-1 in overtime.

The Maple Leafs apparently have no problem keeping the lanes safe, with a 4-0-1 record at first base and a 5-0-0 record when leading after two periods, but it’s worrying that they’ve only been able to do so in half of their games so far. They’ve had a harder time catching teams, with just one comeback win all season and zero after trailing after two periods. To be serious contenders, they will need to understand both how to play from behind and how to put the first puck in the back of the net.

4. The bottom six needs an overhaul

It’s been a legitimate storyline for a few seasons now, but the fourth line just hasn’t gotten it right. While the third line was also an issue, the Maple Leafs took away production from a few of their third liners – Max Domi has six assists and Bobby McMann has provided four points including three goals so far. Even David Kampf, who has largely been one of the Maple Leafs’ worst forwards over the past few seasons, has solid underlying stats despite an unimpressive stat line. Steven Lorentz, who became a fan favorite due to realizing his publicly shared childhood dream of playing for the Maple Leafs, was also a great addition to the bottom six despite poor scoring.

The real problem lies with Ryan Reaves and Pontus Holmberg, both of whom have no business being on an NHL roster at their current level of play. As far as Reaves is concerned, he is a thorn in the side of anyone who follows the NHL and prioritizes skill and talent over grit and unnecessary physicality. Sure, he can throw a punch every once in a while and maybe that energizes the team, but he definitely shouldn’t play every night considering he can’t do much else. Holmberg has, simply put, been the team’s worst player through 10 games and needs to take a few games off to turn around and improve his performance. Nicholas Robertson, who has certainly struggled in terms of points, should play on the third line in front of him. Once Connor Dewar returns from injury, Reaves and Holmberg are expected to be out of the lineup indefinitely.

5. A new defense corps works wonderfully

This past offseason, general manager Brad Treliving placed emphasis on improving the defensive corps. He added a second puck-moving defenseman Olivier Ekman-Larsson and one of the best defensive defensemen in the league (who, I might add, underestimated his ability to move the puck himself) in Chris Tanev. The two newcomers to the lineup have been excellent additions, with the latter of the two playing some of the strongest hockey of his long career.

Ekman-Larsson, who signed a four-year contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $3.5 million on the first day of free agency, provided a solid top-four presence to move the puck alongside Rielly. In fact, Ekman-Larsson dominates the defensive corps with six points through the first 10 games and earned a promotion to the top pairing thanks to his excellent play. Although his underlying stats compared to the rest of the defense group are somewhat weak, he’s still performed admirably and holds an xGF% of 51.38%, so it’s not like he’s been net negative in any way despite being fifth on the team among the defenders. in the metric.

Tanev, meanwhile, was arguably the team’s best defender. At 35, there were concerns (rightly) about his Six-year, $4.5 million AAV contract when he signed in July, but he has allayed those reservations and more, at least for now. As it stands, he ranks first on the team with an xGF% of 59.79%. That mark places Tanev fifth in the entire NHL among defensemen with at least 150 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey. While his xGF/60 isn’t necessarily the best, with four Maple Leafs defensemen surpassing him in that mark, almost no one in the league produces better defensive numbers – his xGA/60 ranks seventh in the league. Simply put, it’s worth its weight in gold.

Maple Leafs underlying stats bode well for remaining games

Despite a record barely above .500, the Maple Leafs have many encouraging signs to point out for the rest of the season. As a team, they rank in the top 10 in xGF% and top five in SCF/60 and HDCF/60. They finally have a solid goaltender (or two, if Woll returns to what he’s shown in his young career) to lean on and have players in their system to form a fully balanced, threatening lineup that can score of the four trios and all. three pairs of defenses. Underperforming superstars are likely to bounce back when it comes to their production, and that should give the rest of the lineup a boost as well. Expect Toronto to become a giant team demonstrating its capabilities to compete for the Stanley Cup sooner rather than later.