The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Summary Report and the UN Emissions Gap Report tell the same old story: climate change is a ballroom discussion about expensive food and drink, and not a real change on the ground.

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The context of these reports – which highlight the world’s collective failure to meet climate change goals – is that by next year, countries will have to submit new NDCs to the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC).

Climate scientists and activists are calling on policymakers to significantly increase national targets under NDCs to reduce emissions and accelerate the transition to net zero, no later than 2040.

The findings of the synthesis report are striking but not surprising: current national climate plans fall far short of what is needed to prevent global warming from crippling all economies and destroying billions of lives and livelihoods in every country . The current plans combined – if fully implemented – would result in emissions of 51.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030 – a level only 2.6% lower than in 2019. greenhouse at these levels would guarantee a human and economic disaster for every country, without exception.

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. By 2035, Global net greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 60% compared to 2019 levels. This is essential to limit global warming to 1.5°C this century and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Every fraction of a degree counts, as climate disasters worsen rapidly.

The UN Emissions Gap Report says increasing GHG emissions will cause a temperature increase of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, with emissions increasing by twice the pre-industrial level and 43% since 1990, when the first climate change conference was held in Rio de Janeiro, leading to the signing of the UNFCCC. It also said emissions would be reduced by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 to reach 1.5°C.

It remains technically possible to embark on the path to warming to 1.5°C, with solar energy, wind energy and forests showing real promise for a rapid and radical reduction in emissions, says the report on the emissions gap, specifying that sufficiently strong NDCs must be urgently supported by all countries. – a government approach, measures that maximize socio-economic and environmental co-benefits, strengthened international collaboration which includes a reform of the global financial architecture, strong action by the private sector and a minimum six-fold increase in investment ‘mitigation.

The UNFCCC has urged nations to implement the next round of national climate plans and have enough “ambition” to drastically reduce emissions rather than simply slow the emissions trajectory and must pass the ABC test: new emissions reduction targets should be cost-effective. broad, covering all greenhouse gases; keep 1.5 degrees alive; must be divided into sectors and gases and must be credible, supported by regulations, laws and substantial funding to ensure that objectives are met and plans are implemented.

The UN has called on countries to ensure that new NDCs detail adaptation priorities and investments to protect critical sectors, infrastructure and people from climate impacts, and to align with UN processes. national adaptation plans. They should have a time horizon of up to 2035, with much more ambitious targets for 2030 to drive the drastic emissions reductions needed globally this decade, the UN said, releasing the report. synthesis.

The COP29 conference to be held in November in Baku, Azerbaijan, is expected to define the contours of the NDCs, providing economic frameworks favorable to the needs of developing countries and greater responsibility on the part of the developed world, responsible for 80% of collective broadcasts. . COP29 comes at a time when there is a war in the Middle East with US-backed Israel on one side and Iran-backed Hamas on the other and US presidential elections looming.

If former President Donald Trump wins, the future of climate negotiations will be uncertain. In 2016, when Trump first won, the United States left the Paris climate accord, only returning to it when Democrats led by Jim Biden returned to power. Given these uncertainties, we should not expect much from the climate conference in Baku.

However, if countries agree on a strong and “real” CDN framework for reducing emissions, it would be a success as the first CDN framework under the Paris Agreement was weak because it aimed to bring as many countries as possible into the voluntary global regime.

It would be interesting to see whether Baku agrees to voluntary emissions reduction targets for emerging economies such as China and India, whose clamor is rising globally as the two countries move forward to enter the club of developed nations. While India has set a goal of becoming a developed country by 2047, overcoming this clamor on the global climate stage will not be easy.