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Allan Lichtman maintains Harris will win the 2024 election. Here’s why
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Allan Lichtman maintains Harris will win the 2024 election. Here’s why

Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University known for accurately predicting presidential elections, is standing at his call that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.

GO TO: POLLS TODAY I SWING STATES

Litchman has received plenty of backlash since making his prediction in September, but he said FOX 5DC Tom Fitzgerald received even more pushback for his 2016 prediction that former President Donald Trump would win.

However, Lichtman says the vitriol his detractors are bringing into this election cycle is different from what came before.

2024 Presidential Election Predictions

“I’m used to rejection, I’ve felt it for 42 years,” Lichtman said. “But I have to tell you, I’ve never felt the kind of hatred that was inflicted on me this time.”

Lichtman says he places the blame squarely on Trump and extremist rhetoric.

“I don’t change my forecasts on the fly in response to polls or conventional wisdom. If I did, I would be useless as a forecaster.” Allan Lichtman

“I have received the most vulgar, slanderous and violent communications. My family’s safety has been compromised. We have had to notify the police, secure our property, and I absolutely attribute this to the toxic policies of Donald Trump,” Lichtman said. “Before Donald Trump, I had never seen anything like this.”

Despite the threats, Lichtman said Sunday he would not change his prediction, even though polls show the two candidates deadlocked nationally and in several swing states.

“I don’t change my forecasts on the fly in response to polls or conventional wisdom. If I did, I would be useless as a forecaster. I might as well rely on polls,” he said.

Presidential elections today 2024

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in a new survey from TIPP Knowledge released Monday. But in two polls released by CBS/YouGov and ABC News, Harris has a slight lead over Trump. However, Trump has an advantage over Harris in several recent polls in swing states.

Who is leading in the presidential polls? Swing States

“I stood by my prediction in 2016, when pollsters were almost unanimously against it,” Lichtman said.

The presidential predictor explained why he relies on his “13 Keys to the White House” rather than conventional polls.

“My system is based on history and yes, history might change, but you won’t know until afterward,” Lichtman said.

Four of these keys are based on the candidate’s political opinions, seven on their performance and two on their personality.

“The way it works is that six of my 13 keys have to go against the party of the White House and I only have four that go against them: the mandate based on the elections to the House of Representatives in the United States, the mandate, the failure of foreign policy due to the disaster in the Middle East and the failure of the outgoing president’s charisma,” he continued.

With just over a week until the election, Lichtman says that barring a “catastrophic” incident, he stands by his call and continues to believe Harris will take the White House.

When do polls close on Election Day?

Polling stations are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. Election DayTuesday November 5.

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