WASHINGTON – With the US presidential election in just one week, the Biden administration is not losing hope short-term ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But U.S. officials are aware that political uncertainty in the United States has made parties reluctant to commit to meaningful deals until it becomes clear. who won the White House.

Meanwhile, the Middle East is worried about what will happen next After Israel strikes Iranian military targets this weekend in retaliation to Iran’s barrage of ballistic missile attacks October 1st.

US officials have said they believe the Israeli attack – including targets were coordinated with Washington – will not lead to an escalating response from Iran. But the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to share sensitive diplomatic discussions, caution that nothing is certain.

The Biden administration succeeded in persuading Israel to limit its response – thereby winning assurance that it would not touch nuclear or oil sites in Iran it would have worsened the conflict – despite the United States’ limited influence at the end of Biden’s term. As Israel’s closest ally and a key mediator in the Middle East, the United States continues to push for a truce despite past disappointments and little expectation of immediate breakthroughs.

“I don’t get the sense that the Israelis feel a lot of urgency,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I feel like they feel a lot less urgency now than they did a few months ago.”

US efforts in Gaza

As conditions, particularly in Gaza, continue to deteriorateThe administration supports an Egyptian proposal for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza that would see Hamas release a limited number of hostages and potentially open more routes for refugees. essential humanitarian aid to reach the enclave, U.S. officials say.

President Joe Biden said Monday he would join his team to discuss the proposal.

“We need a ceasefire. We should end this war. This should end. This should end. This should end,” Biden said.

One of the officials said the administration would support virtually any suggestion leading to a reduction in the suffering of Palestinian civilians and the release of hostages, but stressed that “we are not holding our breath.”

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken It is visit to Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar last week, the objective was to assess the region’s willingness to reach such an agreement. Officials said Blinken emerged from his meetings with cautious optimism, but acknowledged that earlier similar hopes had been dashed.

“What we really need to determine is whether Hamas is willing to engage,” Blinken said last week. He said the assassination of Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar helped to open a window for further negotiations on a ceasefire proposal which has been hanging around for months.

To underline U.S. support for a deal, CIA Director William Burns participated in weekend discussions in Doha with senior Israeli and Qatari officials about the way forward. There was no immediate outcome, but lower-level talks are expected to continue this week.

The prospects for success of even a modest proposal — which would fall well short of previous plans in terms of ceasefire agreement in three phases — are uncertain because Hamas, despite heavy losses on the groundrejected calls for anything other than a total truce and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

Hamas has not yet formally responded to the Egyptian plan, although Israel has signaled its willingness to consider the idea.

Longer-term ideas for Gaza’s post-conflict future are a work in progress, according to U.S. officials, who say Israeli assessments of the battlefield will play a major role in determining what Israel might accept.

Israel has so far categorically rejected any governance or security role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, posing an obstacle both for the authority and for Arab nations whose support will be essential to the success of any plan.

While the U.S. election may be a factor, even without the Nov. 5 vote, Israel shows little sign of motivation to pursue a ceasefire, analyst Alterman said .

“From what I know, we don’t think we’re close to a major breakthrough,” Alterman said.

American push into Lebanon

In Lebanon, where Israel is present intensification of military operations against Hezbollah Over the past month, U.S. officials have admitted that a short-term solution is probably unrealistic.

This is because Israeli officials are wary of Lebanon’s fractured political leadership and the Lebanese armed forces have yet to take convincing steps to prevent Hezbollah fighters from attacking Israel from southern Lebanon.

Biden adviser Amos Hochstein – who played a key role in the administration’s efforts to prevent Israel and Hezbollah from entering into a full-scale war – is expected in the region this week to get a sense of who is responsible Israelis on what they would be willing to support.

Depending on what he hears, he could then travel to Lebanon to explore what local officials would be willing to do to prevent further Hezbollah rocket strikes on northern and central Israel, officials said. .

Complicating matters in Gaza and Lebanon is that neither Hamas nor Hezbollah have announced replacements after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’ Sinwar in recent weeks.

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AP reporters Tara Copp in Washington, Aamer Madhani in New Castle, Delaware, and Abby Sewell in Beirut, Lebanon, contributed.