When the College Football Playoff decided to expand to 12 teams two years ago, one of the driving forces was that it would provide playoff access to teams that normally wouldn’t be mentioned in the race. national title. While it has undoubtedly instilled hope this season among fans like the Iowa State Cyclones, BYU Cougars and Indiana Hoosiers, teams in the Group of 5 conferences have the most to gain from the new format.

For those who need a refresher, the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a playoff bid alongside the seven highest-ranked at-large teams remaining in the CFP selection committee’s final rankings. The top four conference champions will receive a first-round bye while the fifth, the highest-ranked conference champion from one of the Group of 5 conferences in most years, will play in one of the four games in the first round organized on the teams’ campuses. ranked #5 to #8.

That’s right, being the top Group 5 champion in the eyes of the committee no longer means you get a good trip to a big bowl game, but rather that you are in the main tournament with an opportunity to win the national championship on the playing field.

That’s a big deal and a good reason why there’s weight in thinking about the 12-team playoff to improve the regular season. Suddenly, games from the Pacific Northwest to Central Texas to the heights of New England all carry different weight as the year progresses.

Who in the Group of 5 is still in contention for that elusive first shot at the playoffs after a wild week of college football action? Here’s a look at all the contenders as the calendar approaches November and the selection committee meets to rank teams for the first time next week.

After their 29-24 victory against the UNLV Rebels on Friday in Las Vegas, Boise bus picks up speed and leading the pack, just as it did when the program burst onto the national scene as a BCS buster. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in defenseman Ashton Jeanty, a salty defense and have played up to the standards expected of the best team in the Group of 5.

They also have a quality resume that includes the nation’s “best” loss (a 37-34 loss to the Oregon Ducks on a last-second field goal), a convincing win over the Washington State Cougars 7 to 1 and occupy the pole. position in the Mountain West race after the victory over UNLV. Boise State is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in both polls and will likely be the same in the committee’s rankings next Tuesday. This is his place to lose by both the eye test and the overall CV.

One of the biggest stories of the first half of the season, Jeff Monken’s program is 7-0 for the first time since 1996 and has the nation’s longest winning streak (11 games). The Black Knights are one of only two teams (the Indiana Hoosiers being the other) to have a top-10 offensive and defensive ranking in FBS, in addition to tearing up the schedule with impressive results (scoring margin of over -196). In addition to playing well between the lines, Army is 6-0 in conference play and, depending on results elsewhere, could end up clinching a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game well before Thanksgiving if they beat the North Texas Mean Green in November. 9.

While it’s possible that the Mountain West and AAC champions make the playoffs this year, it’s more likely that it will be an either/or situation, with only one of them on the court. To date, Boise State has played a tougher slate (Sagarin’s calendar force ranking of 67 to 145 for Army) and has better victories despite a blemish against Oregon.

Since the annual game against the Navy Midshipmen takes place after the final rankings used to determine the playoffs, the Black Knights only have one opportunity to crack the top 25 (at least before the conference title game ) when they play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on November 23 at Yankee Stadium. Even if they were to lose this one at a neutral site, how they play in the game against another playoff contender will likely be an important indicator for the selection committee to evaluate when trying to compare the Army to another playoff contender. losing conference champion such as BSU.

Despite suffering two non-conference losses, Tulane joins Army & Navy with an undefeated record in the AAC and is currently on a 14-game league winning streak. He played well under new head coach Jon Sumrall and nearly won in his two games against Power 4 opposition, including a controversial final against the Kansas State Wildcats that would certainly be brought up in the committee room if they won this season.

The Green Wave has a tough road ahead with several AAC contenders (Navy, Memphis Tigers, potentially Army in the title game) remaining on the docket, but the downside is the opportunity for wins on other contenders who would virtually eliminate. other Group of 5 competitors also bid. They need help, but an 11-2 Tulane — with a conference championship and three wins against double-digit teams — could still be an attractive pick for the committee in December.

Saturday was a time to forget for almost everyone at the Navynot only losing to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 51-14, but turning the ball over six times and looking uncompetitive against the only ranked team it played in the process.

Still, there’s a pretty clear path to the playoffs if the Midshipmen win and enter Selection Sunday 11-1 with an AAC championship plus a top-25 win over what would likely be Army. Before in their Week 15 regular season battle. It would help if the winners of the other four Group 5 leagues finished with two losses, but the potential discussion between Navy and a one-loss Boise State would be solid for the committee if it happened.

The close loss to Boise State didn’t eliminate UNLV from the playoffs, but it made the road difficult. That helps the Rebels already have two Power 4 wins, but combining the Kansas Jayhawks and Houston Cougars to go 3-7 in Big 12 play hurts that resume more than it should.

More problematic is that even a win might not allow UNLV to face Boise State again and give the former a chance to avenge that five-point home loss. Because the Colorado State Rams (3-0 at MWC) are missing both the Broncos and Rebels on the schedule, it’s possible that even a 10-2 mark will keep Barry Odom’s team completely away from the bubble.

Scheduling quirks are going to be a big talking point, and no one will understand it better in the coming weeks than Ryan Silverfield’s team. It’s nice that the Tigers have a Power 4 road win (albeit over the disastrous Florida State Seminoles), but their lone loss is going to prove quite problematic. Even if Memphis wins, it’s not even guaranteed to advance to the AAC title game, as it would lose a tiebreaker to Navy and not play Army. At 11-1, it’s possible this team isn’t a conference champion and should be an at-large selection.

The committee isn’t going to put Memphis in the field against a two- or three-loss power conference team given the relative lack of wins in the top 25, so the Tigers will need help over the next few weeks.

Remember, all five conference champions from the Group of 5 will have a chance to be selected by the committee, and the 6-1 Ragin’ Cajuns are currently as well placed as the Sun Belt class. It seems unlikely they’ll top the standings with tough tests coming up at the Texas State Bobcats and Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, but there’s a glimmer of hope if they finish 12-1. It doesn’t hurt that the only loss was by one score to Tulane.

The Hilltoppers are undefeated in Conference USA play (as are the Jacksonville State Gamecocks, although they are 4-3 overall) and, like the Cajuns, have a chance to be in the running for committee as potential Group of 5 champion. Both of WKU’s losses came on the road against Power 4 teams, including a one-point loss in the final three minutes against the Boston College Eagles. It’s an extremely long shot, but there’s at least a glimmer of hope of winning and seeing chaos happen elsewhere to the point where they sneak onto the field.

Wednesday’s loss to the previously winless Kennesaw State Owls likely saved the selection committee from a potentially sticky situation where the Flames would be undefeated this year, but still find themselves outside the playoff picture. Liberty has terrible schedule metrics and has played far worse than they did a year ago when they played in the Fiesta Bowl. It’s possible the team could finish as 12-1 Conference USA champions, but they’d have to see every other Group of 5 contender suffer two or three losses to even be in the conversation of a committee that should send a message about playing a meaningful role. calendar.

Washington State survived a scare against the San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday night to improve to 7-1. However, even if head coach Jake Dickert’s team beats the Oregon State Beavers in a few weeks to win a nominal Pac-12 title, the Cougars are not eligible to claim an automatic playoff berth as l ‘one of the highest ranked conference champions. This is the result of the league dropping to two members in 2024 and 2025 and some complicated maneuvering that allowed the playoffs to expand in the first place.

For most people who aren’t involved in the nitty-gritty details of the selection committee process, it’s best to just consider the Cougs in the same boat as Notre Dame. They’re a potential contender at 11-1 with just one loss to a playoff contender in Boise State, but can’t get in automatically (nor can they earn one of the four byes). It will be an uphill battle even if they win to rank over a Power 4 team that has two or three losses, but there’s at least a chance they get favorable enough results elsewhere to sneak into the top 11 or 12. of the final ranking of the committee.