NEW YORK (AP) — Uncertainty reigns as Democrats approach the final full week of the 2024 campaign. Kamala Harris and republican Donald Trump locked in an extremely competitive presidential race. What happens in the coming days will be decisive in deciding the winner.

Here’s what we’re looking at this week:

Can Trump stay on message (relatively speaking)?

Even before the week began, Trump’s campaign was in danger of being disrupted by controversy. A rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday evening, intended to serve as a closing message, was instead overshadowed by racist insultsincluding a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”

And eight days from the end Election Dayhistory suggests that Trump is virtually guaranteed to say or do something else controversial down the stretch. The only question is whether it will succeed.

If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Trump can’t help himself. He has used authoritarian rhetoric in recent days to suggest that his Democratic opponents, whom he calls ” the enemy within» are more dangerous to the nation than the threat posed by Russia and China.

Democrats will comb through every Trump interview and public appearance looking for something similar to exploit. There are also several projects underway criminal investigations into Trumpwho has already been convicted of 34 counts, this could reveal new information.

Yet Democrats are the first to admit that voters’ views of Trump are so harsh that it would take something truly stunning to change the course of the election.

There is, however, precedent for a stunning event in the past week. Remember, it was October 28, 2016, when former FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress stating that federal investigators had become aware of new emails relevant to the investigation into the use by Hillary Clinton from a private email server.

Will Harris’ closing message exploit Democrats’ anxiety?

It would be an understatement to describe Democrats as anxious as Election Day approaches. But Harris’ senior team made a deliberate effort this weekend to project optimism to help temper the fear.

Harris senior adviser Jen O’Malley Dillon predicted victory on MSNBC Sunday: “We’re confident we’re going to win this case,” she said. “We are seeing extraordinary enthusiasm. This is going to be a close race and our campaign is exactly where we want to be.

Harris will attempt to further ease Democrats’ anxiety Tuesday when she delivers her speech. his “final argument” at the Ellipse, the same location near the White House where Trump spoke on January 6, 2021, shortly before his supporters attacked the Capitol.

But she is also expected to touch on broader themes, encouraging voters to look behind her at the White House and imagine who will be sitting at the Resolute Desk at a moment of great importance. Its goal is to convey the stakes of the Nov. 5 election to undecided voters, particularly moderate Republicans who may be uncomfortable with Trump’s controversial leadership and extreme rhetoric. And while Harris’ team is betting there are a significant number of moderates who can still be convinced, progressive Democrats are worried she did not focus enough on economic issues in the final days of the campaign.

Democratic anxiety, we have learned, can be a fact of life.

Where will they go?

How candidates’ travel schedules evolve will tell us a lot about which battlegrounds will matter most on Election Day.

Here’s what we know for sure: Harris and Trump are competing aggressively in just seven swing states that will ultimately decide the election. These are the three so-called “Blue Wall” states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – in addition to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

However, from a political perspective, not all seven are equal.

More than 41 million votes have already been cast in national elections. Democrats generally have an advantage in early voting, but so far, at least, Republicans are participating in much higher turnout than in the past.

The question: will it last?

Trump, of course, has for years encouraged his supporters to vote only in person on Election Day. This practice puts the GOP at a significant disadvantage. He has largely changed course in recent months, as he and his party have recognized the clear advantage of being able to bank their votes sooner rather than later.

Due to Republican turnout, early turnout was break records last week in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.

But with the Republican Party focusing more on “election integrity” rather than a traditional get-out-the-vote operation, it’s unclear whether the surge in Republican early voting will continue. Democrats hope that won’t be the case.

To what extent will Trump work to undermine the election results?

History may one day decide that the most significant thing Trump said in the final days of the 2024 election is the one many voters barely notice: his persistent warnings that this election is rigged against him .

Indeed, as Election Day approaches, Trump is increasingly warning his supporters that he will only lose on November 5 if his political opponents cheat. Such statements have no factual basis. There is no evidence of significant voter fraud in the 2020 election, which Trump lost, nor is there any evidence that Trump’s opponents can or will rig this election against him.

Yet Trump’s unfounded warnings are making an already tense and violent election season even more difficult. And there is real threats posed by foreign adversaries – notably Russia, China and Iran – will intervene in the elections.

At the same time, the The Republican National Committee invested tens of millions of dollars in an operation to mobilize thousands of poll watchers, election officials and lawyers to serve as “election integrity” watchdogs. Democrats fear these efforts could lead to harassment of election workers and undermine confidence in voting.

Both sides are aggressive prepare for long legal battles it doesn’t matter who wins.

It remains unclear how Iran will respond to Israeli demands. unusually public airstrikes Friday across Iran, but Israel did not target oil or nuclear sites, a sign that a much more serious escalation could have been avoided. In another indication that this conflict is unlikely to spiral out of control, the Islamic Republic has insisted that the strikes have caused only “limited damage” and messages from Iranian state media have downplayed the attacks.

If the region slides further toward all-out regional war or continues at an already devastating and destabilizing level of violence, it could also determine the extent to which the Middle East conflict shapes U.S. elections.

The issue has been particularly difficult for Harris to handle, as she simultaneously pledges support for Israel and empathizes with the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by the Israeli response to the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. The vice-president Democratic president continues to face intense pressure from her party’s progressive base, which is extremely critical of Israel.