Russia is working more closely than ever with its autocracy axis peers, namely China, Iran and North Korea. The widespread use of the Iranian Shahed, the deployment of North Korean troops and now the production of deadly UAS by Chinese companies (although perhaps without the government’s knowledge) are all examples of escalation of the from Russian allies. Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine continues to gain momentum as foreign personnel and equipment flood into the battlefield.

Of Putin’s three most friendly partners, China has been the least willing to become openly involved in the conflict. Although Putin and Xi have declared a “no-holds-barred partnership”, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has not openly contributed military personnel or equipment to the conflict and claims to have an “impartial stance” on the war. Despite this claim, China has helped Russia evade sanctions, and the US State Department has accused China of providing Russia with “very substantial” aid. The PRC likely does not want to increase anxiety among China watchers by openly supporting an autocratic power seeking to conquer its neighbor, as this could raise questions about its own intentions. China wants to increase its position in the current international system, and openly supporting Putin’s war effort would hinder this rise. If China truly wants America to remain focused on other aspects of the world, it must limit its overt involvement in the war.

Among Russia’s three biggest allies, Iran has arguably worked more closely than the others to support Putin’s war effort so far. Iran has sent more than 2,000 drones to Russia and recently supplied short-range missiles. Iran’s partnership may soon become relatively less noteworthy, as 3,000 North Korean troops are now widely reported to be aiding Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine. For months, North Korea has provided thousands of containers of ammunition and equipment to support Russia’s war effort, but the arrival of thousands of troops – and thousands more on the way – is considered by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin as the “next step” in conflict. growing relationship between the two dictatorships.

It’s unclear why North Korea is so interested in helping Russia at a time of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and continuing economic struggles, although two theories are emerging. The first and most frightening suggestion is that North Korea’s participation in the conflict could be rewarded with access to nuclear or ballistic missile technology. This suggestion is alarming but not out of the question; after all, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell claims that Russia is already providing military technology to China in exchange for helping the war effort. The second theory is simply that as a narcissistic autocrat, Kim Jong Un simply doesn’t like being ignored for too long; Intervening against Ukraine brings headlines for the dictator with little risk to his own power. Regardless, ties between Russia and North Korea are stronger today than before the war.

The North Korean troop deployment and the rest of this escalation come as Russian casualties continue at a staggering rate, reaching as many as 1,200 per day. An emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London said last weekend that the loss of Russian personnel poses the number one risk for Putin as he continues his war effort. Another year of losing 400,000 working-age men will have a significant effect on the Russian economy and society. The escalation in Iran, North Korea and China comes as Russia refits its old tanks and relies on older recruits. Each country has its own reasons for wanting to see Russia win – or at least not lose – and we are currently experiencing a critical period with little Russian momentum in eastern Ukraine. Although the arrival of Allied troops and equipment on the front lines is not yet measurable, it should be seen as further evidence of the willingness of these autocratic nations to work together to achieve their individual and collective goals.

The growing partnership between these four nations raises questions for NATO and other countries engaged in Ukraine’s defense. Some defense experts have called on Europe – but not NATO – to send troops to Ukraine, and many others have called for additional equipment to be delivered to support the country if needed. To be sure, Russia’s war of aggression remains a potential flashpoint for global conflict and prompts Western powers to think collectively about ways to discourage further territorial acquisitions by force.