It is always possible to draw different conclusions from separate opinion surveys, taking into account the usual margins of error. So when it comes to questions that don’t involve a fixed timeline, it makes sense to look at trends over an extended period of time.

The Good Friday Agreement, for entirely valid reasons, took a vague approach in 1998 to the prospect of a referendum on Irish unity, and it is indisputable that no substantial discussion on the subject followed for many years.

Circumstances have changed slowly but surely, and while the timing and outcome of a border poll remains uncertain, it is clear that a broader debate is now firmly emerging.

Details of the Economic and Social Research Council’s (ESRC) latest initiative, the Northern Ireland General Election Survey 2024, have been closely scrutinized by both sides of the debate since they were published. first published by this newspaper last weekand while, at the most basic level, the data indicates that the largest group of voters remains in favor of maintaining the status quo, it’s the long-term trends that are hard to avoid.

Strikingly, although some observers believe the methodology employed underestimates nationalist tendencies, the ESRC’s latest findings show support for the union has fallen below 50 percent for the first time, s ‘standing at 48.6 percent, with this figure dropping even further. by more than 10 percentage points in the last decade, and by almost five points in the last five years alone.

Support for unity is growing at an almost identical rate, up five points since 2019 to 33.7 percent, and one particularly telling statistic is that those under 25 who have expressed their views are evenly divided in favor of the union, with exactly 47.7 percent on each side. .

Unionists who believe nationalists are trying to make the most of the UK’s marginal vote to leave the European Union in 2016, against the wishes of the Northern Ireland electorate, are probably right , and Brexit can clearly be considered the biggest boost to Brexit. the campaign for Irish unity within living memory.

This has had nothing short of a transformational impact, as ESRC statistics confirm, and the evidence is that the unionist advantage that seemed impregnable for generations is relentlessly eroding.

( Jon Tonge: Border survey responses offer something for everyoneOpens in a new window )

No serious commentator suggested that unionists might be prepared to switch allegiances in a border vote, even before the latest developments in Belfast and Dublin which has significantly damaged Sinn Féin’s credibility.

It will be remembered, however, that Peter Robinson, rightly considered the leading Unionist tactician of his time, said at a DUP rally in 2013 that Catholic votes, among those he described as “culturally Irish”, would guarantee union in a referendum, which he said would take place in at least half a century anyway.

The whole situation has changed considerably since then, after errors of judgment were made in all sections of our society, and the verdict will ultimately be given by the nationalists, trade unionists and the non-aligned.

Peter Robinson’s latest successor as leader of the DUP, Gavin Robinson, acknowledged this reality in a speech last week, and it would be fascinating to hear Mr Robinson’s specific views on recent interventions by trade union figures, including from some of their party colleagues, on the Irish question. culture.

The continued attacks on GAA members and Irish language enthusiasts, even those of primary school age, have been well documented, and questions in the Assembly from Timothy Gaston of the Traditional Unionist Voice which emerged last week represented a new low.

Mr Gaston, MP for North Antrim, asked whether the visit of an All-Ireland winning GAA player to Armagh Fire Station, in a different constituency more than 50 miles away, constituted a violation of employment rules.

The player brought the Sam Maguire Cup while offering his gratitude to emergency responders who attended a road tragedy in which three people – two of his close relatives and a friend – were killed last year.

This is a pathetic complaint in every way, which has been firmly rejected by the relevant Minister, Mike Nesbitt of the Ulster Unionist Party, but it will influence thinking far beyond North Antrim .

While we must look closely at health, education, economic, environmental and other issues before a referendum is confirmed, there is no doubt that the attitudes exemplified by Mr. Gaston will also be a factor.

[email protected]