Business operators facing eviction due to the Commuter Rail Loop (SRL) have been given more time to vacate their sites, leading experts to question the broader timeline and viability of the project.

Victoria’s Department of Transport and Planning wrote to business owners neighboring a huge Loop East rail commuter site in Box Hill last month to inform them of the changes.

In a letter sent last month and seen by the ABC, Qipo Skewer Bar, located on Whitehorse Road, was informed it would be given an additional nine months beyond its scheduled eviction date.

“The Authority has indicated that it proposes to take possession of the land on December 1, 2024,” the department’s land acquisition director, Bryan Yeow, wrote to the restaurant’s owners.

“I am pleased to announce that additional analysis has allowed us to confirm a further extension of the land possession date until September 1, 2025.”

The new date came as a relief to the owners of Qipo Skewer Bar, who are still looking for replacement premises.

“We are trying very hard to find new ownership, but a lot of other businesses in the area are competing with each other,” said co-owner Michael Yu.

He’s optimistic his business can succeed in a new location, but said it’s difficult operating across the street from a major construction site.

“We even had homeless people living next door because no one was taking care of the properties,” Mr. Yu said of a vacant store awaiting demolition.

“At night it’s very dark on the street, so some people may think we’re already closed.”

The restaurant owners’ lawyer, Chris Wiseman, said he knew other businesses had also been told they could stay put until September 2025.

“We believe that additional work has been done by the authorities to examine their programming,” said Mr. Wiseman, of the law firm Mills Oakley.

A small delay can cause a “cascading effect”

Suburban Rail Loop East, the first stage of the project, is expected to open in 2035 at a cost of at least $35 billion.

The Victorian Government wants the Commonwealth to cover a third of the cost of SRL East, with another third coming from raising additional state revenue – known as “value capture”.

So far, the federal government has only committed $2.2 billion for SRL East.

Marion Terrill, an infrastructure and transportation expert, suggested the changing eviction timetable could indicate broader problems at the project.

“We may see a pause or postponement of the end date,” Ms Terrill said.

“These large projects are very complex and have a lot of interdependencies, so if one thing is delayed there is a cascading effect.

Ms Terrill, who was a former director of the Grattan Institute’s Transportation and Cities program, said projects announced before the 2018 election, as the SRL was, were more likely to run into problems.

“The government needs to be transparent about what is happening,” she said.

Ms Terrill said Victorians had the right to have more information about how billions of dollars of taxpayers’ money were being managed.

“If you are a listed company, the law requires you to promptly report to the market any changes in your expected financial results,” she said.

“It’s just like that, it’s an investment that the taxpayers of Victoria are making, and so we should also know quickly if there’s a change in costs, a change in timing, a change in expected benefits what we will get from this project when it comes to fruition.

The entire rail loop is expected to be completed by 2050. What it will cost the state remains a mystery.

Victoria’s Parliamentary Budget Office has estimated the cost of building the first two stages of the loop – Eastern and Northern – at $96.4 billion.

Ms Terrill said it would make sense for the project to be suspended or even canceled given other projects have faced budget overruns.

“This project is extremely expensive and we still don’t have a viable way to finance it,” she said.

“We had a cost overrun of $2.5 billion for the Metro Tunnel, $4 billion for the West Gate Tunnel and $16 billion for the North East Link. So it would be good to find out if there is a cost overrun so far on the commuter rail route, and if so, how much.

Although money had already been invested in the project, it was not too late to stop it, Terrill said, given that it was in its early stages.

“Even though we spent money, it’s not like a nearly finished project,” Ms. Terrill said.

“There are still a lot of billions of dollars to invest until the 2050s or 2060s.

“In many ways we’re in a bit of a hole and when you’re in a hole the best advice is to stop digging.”

Townhouses razed to make way for the SRL

The prospect of the project being put on ice is heartbreaking for Melbourne architect Carlo Corallo.

A property owned by his family, which included a building bought by his migrant parents in the 1970s, has already been taken over by the SRL in Burwood.

“It was a dream started by my parents,” Mr. Corallo said.

“(They) saw it as an opportunity to build a retirement fund and put something together to leave their children behind.

“We thought it would be a good thing for us to continue that legacy.

“It was supposed to be a retirement project for our family, as well as my sister’s family.”

The family, including Mr. Corallo’s architect daughters, built 13 townhouses on the site and it was planned to rent them out.

“They didn’t have the heart to come see him,” he said of his daughters.

The project was about three-quarters complete when they received a surprise weekend phone call from their local member warning them that their property could be subject to compulsory acquisition.

After being told this outcome was unlikely, the family decided to finish the job.

But 18 months after the townhouses were completed, the government took possession and razed the new houses.

“It brings up a lot of emotion,” Mr. Corallo said.

“They are knocked down and, frankly, the negotiations with us are not complete, and they are not even complete with our neighbors and they also demolished our neighbors’ house.

“We have no idea why these properties were destroyed.”

He pointed out that in a time of housing crisis, it would be a travesty if homes were demolished prematurely for a project that may or may not come to fruition.

For Mr. Corallo, it would be crushing if the SRL was not completed.

“Then everything that has been demolished will be waste and will be of no use,” he said.

Eviction delays are at the request of companies, according to SRL authorities

Shadow Transport Infrastructure Minister David Southwick said it was alarming there was no certainty of funding for the largest infrastructure project the state had ever undertaken.

“Due to financial uncertainty, the project must either be reworked or at least postponed,” Mr Southwick said.

“It’s no surprise that some people’s lives are being affected by this level of uncertainty because the government has failed to do its homework.”

The ABC asked the government what was causing the delay in taking possession of the Whitehorse Road properties and whether this represented further delays to the project, as well as how SRL was avoiding the cost blowouts faced other major projects.

A spokesperson for the Suburban Rail Loop Authority said the delay in evictions was at the request of the companies.

“The commuter rail loop is on time and on budget – the first TBMs have been ordered and we are on track to begin tunneling in 2026,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

“Work is progressing well at all six stations and at Heatherton stations.