REGINA — The Saskatchewan election campaign entered its final day Sunday, as the two main party leaders vie for government in what is shaping up to be the closest race in nearly two decades.

Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party is seeking a fifth consecutive majority after 17 years in power, while Carla Beck’s NDP is seeking to take back government for the first time since 2007.

Political experts say Moe is still favored to win, given his party’s strength in rural areas, but the question is: How slim could the Saskatchewan Party be?

Election day is Monday.

“I think the parties are much closer than they have been in 17 years,” Charles Smith, a political studies professor at St. Thomas More College in Saskatoon, said in a recent interview.

“For the first time in over a decade, (the NDP) is more competitive than it has ever been.”

Tom McIntosh, a political scientist at the University of Regina, said the electoral map favors the Saskatchewan Party.

“The NDP are the kind of happy campaign warriors,” McIntosh said.

“I’m not sure the Sask. party would show the same kind of enthusiasm. It would be difficult to do when you know you have a massive majority and you know that by any measure it will will be considerably reduced.”

Daniel Westlake, a political studies professor at the University of Saskatchewan, said Moe could lose many urban seats, including those in the small towns of Prince Albert and Moose Jaw.

“I hesitate to predict anything with certainty, but right now it looks like a race in which the Saskatchewan Party will likely lose seats but still form government,” Westlake said.

Polls suggest a close race between the two parties, but the distribution of ridings means an uphill battle for the NDP.

To secure a majority in the 61-seat legislature, the NDP would need to win all 28 seats in the three largest cities – Saskatoon, Regina and Prince Albert – and hope for help elsewhere.

At the time of the dissolution, the governing Saskatchewan Party had 42 seats, while the opposition NDP had 14. There were four independents and one seat was vacant.

The campaign focused largely on health care, affordability and crime, although Moe raised the issue of school locker rooms later in the race.

In his pledge, Moe said his first thing if re-elected would be to ban “biological boys” from using school locker rooms with “biological girls.”

He made the promise after learning of a complaint at a southeastern Saskatchewan school about two biological boys using a girls’ locker room. This commitment was not previously included in his party’s platform document.

A parent of the two children targeted by the complaint is an NDP candidate. Moe said he didn’t know that when he made the promise.

Beck said the ban would make vulnerable children even more vulnerable. She also promised to repeal a Saskatchewan Party law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their name and pronouns at school.

Beck said voters want the next government to address more pressing issues, including classroom sizes, improving health care and the ability to pay for gas and groceries.

Smith said he thinks Moe’s locker room plan is aimed at attracting social conservatives who might be eyeing the right-wing Saskatchewan United Party.

“I also think that attacking a candidate’s children is very concerning, even if he (says) he didn’t know,” Smith said.

McIntosh said the locker room issue was not a priority for voters.

“Where it motivates people, they were probably already going to vote for the Sask Party anyway,” he said.

In Saskatoon on Saturday, Moe said the existing provincial governments had struggled.

“And that’s probably, you know, the case that we’re experiencing – a tough election, I would say here in Saskatchewan,” Moe said.

Blaine Higgs’ New Brunswick Progressive Conservatives were defeated last week by Susan Holt’s Liberals. Higgs, who lost his own seat, remained in office for six years.

Beck said Saturday there was a “sense of change” in Saskatoon.

“I don’t take anything for granted. I’m not built that way. I know we’re going to have to knock on every door and get every vote out, but I feel optimistic,” Beck said.

A spokesperson for Moe said there were no public events planned for Sunday.

Moe promised broad tax breaks and to continue withholding federal carbon tax payments to Ottawa.

His program is expected to cost an additional $1.2 billion over four years. He says his tax cut plan would save a family of four $3,400 over four years. It also includes tax credits for those looking to expand their families or enroll their children in sports and the arts.

Moe promised deficits in the first two years, followed by a surplus in 2027.

Beck was scheduled to meet his supporters Sunday in Regina.

She pledged to spend more to improve health care and education, suspend the gas tax and eliminate the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some groceries.

Beck says his promises are expected to cost an additional $3.5 billion over four years, with the intention of balancing the budget by the end of his term.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published October 27, 2024.

Jeremy Simes, The Canadian Press