Frosty relations between India and Canada await a spring. And next spring in Canada could bring hope to India. The Canadian government is expected to table its budget in April, and everything suggests that this month could prove to be the cruelest for Justin Trudeau’s minority government. Indeed, the Conservatives are unlikely to support it and, unless the Liberal Party gains the support of at least one or two opposition parties, it could be forced into an election. And the outcome of the next election will be key to a thaw in relations between India and Canada.

Currently, various polls indicate a gap of more than 20 percent in favor of the Conservative Party; some show a gap of 15 to 24 percent. Local people admit that the ruling party appears to be almost beyond repair. And it happened in just a few weeks.

Although Trudeau was not very popular before the pandemic, his popularity has increased during the Covid-19 crisis, local residents say. “Unless something very dramatic happens, it’s unlikely that Trudeau will win again,” says Jonathan Berkshire Miller, director of foreign affairs, national security and defense at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. a think tank based in Ottawa. “In any case, the maximum time frame for elections to take place will be less than one year. In all likelihood, it will be in October. So, I think it’s a question of when, not if.

For Canada’s next government, this will be an opportunity for a new beginning. This will be a challenge though. Conservatives will want to engage and partner with India on strategic and economic issues, but Trudeau’s public allegations against India have colored the atmosphere, making it difficult for the new government to follow a pro-India foreign policy. Indian. “I suspect that even though we will see less antagonism and less public comment, it will still be very quiet diplomacy in the early stages,” Miller says.

Miller admits that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police’s allegations accusing Indian diplomats and consular officials of being complicit in violence, intimidation and murder on its soil are bizarre. “What’s even stranger is that our federal police held a press conference,” he said. “Normally, law enforcement professionals don’t get involved in politics. Yet what is surprising is that we are still actively investigating. I don’t know if this is the most responsible thing to do.

Anti-Indian agenda: Sikh separatists demonstrate in front of the Indian consulate in Toronto | AFP

This sentiment is also found in India, raising many questions about the behavior of the RCMP. Does a police agency like the RCMP act solely on intelligence? If investigating crimes and criminal networks is its mandate, why wasn’t it a little more descriptive of organized crime in Canada? Third, if evidence gathering is central to the ongoing investigation into the Hardeep Singh Nijjar murder case, why has Canada not questioned the Lawrence Bishnoi gang’s close associates, recently named by the RCMP as having ties to “Indian agents”?

New Delhi has shared files containing evidence of dozens of accused in India crime and terrorism cases hiding in Canada, with case details, addresses, links and passport numbers as well as the year of their flight to Canada. “International procedures require that known associates of fugitive criminals be at least questioned by the host country,” says Atul Kulkarni, former special director general of the National Investigation Agency.

But Ottawa appears to have completely ignored the part of the story where some Khalistan supporters have long criminal records and whose presence poses a threat to internal security, says an Indian security official. Instead, the presence of Indian diplomats as “persons of interest” in the Nijjar murder case is being cited as a threat, which is absurd, he adds.

To top it all off, while investigations are still ongoing in Canada, calls for sanctions against India are being heard. These largely come from the minority NDP party, which is very critical of the Indian government. “I don’t think the Liberal government is that negligent. Even if he is negligent in other areas, he would not take such a step. I imagine it would be very difficult for them,” says Miller.

But Trudeau seems overwhelmed by political constraints to stay in power. He recently testified before the commission of inquiry into foreign interference. The timing is interesting because it came just days after the second round of accusations targeting Indian diplomats. The Trudeau government had established a commission of inquiry in 2023 to investigate allegations of foreign interference in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 elections.

“The Commission on Foreign Interference has repeatedly stated that China is by far the largest actor of foreign interference here,” Miller says. “I think most people who aren’t even experts in geopolitics understand that China is a global adversary in many ways.”

Canadian intelligence services are alert to threats of foreign interference operations as the country has faced an aggressive attack in recent years. “To some extent, this is a consequence of the fact that we are largely a country of immigrants, coupled with the fact that some countries see their former citizens as either a threat or an opportunity,” says Ward Elcock, former director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

But Miller cautions against putting India in the same category as China and other adversaries. Chinese interference takes different faces in Canada. Its proximity to some private companies with political influence may not have much influence on voters, but there are concerns about their influence on the outcome. There have also been cases of intimidation against parliamentarians or individuals who might take positions contrary to Chinese interests, such as in Taiwan or during the genocide in Xinjiang, Miller says.

In the melee of allegations against the Indian high commissioner and six diplomats repatriated by New Delhi, Canadians seem to have forgotten whether China was actively trying to position its candidates in the upcoming elections. A striking example is the relatively discreet departure of a Chinese diplomat in Toronto, declared persona non grata on May 9, 2023. At the time, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly declared that her country would not tolerate any interference in its internal affairs. Beijing responded by expelling the Canadian consul. The expulsion of the Chinese diplomat is believed to have taken place after numerous attempts to downplay the matter.

“The fact is that Canada is going overboard with China because we don’t want to provoke them,” Miller says. “Imagine what would happen if Canada sent home the Chinese ambassador and six Chinese diplomats. It’s unthinkable. So I think we need to recognize the double standard here.

Repairing relationships that have deteriorated is not an easy task. Canadian diplomats admit that the worst-case scenario would be if New Delhi simply severed diplomatic relations. It would be very difficult, even for the next government in Ottawa, to get things going again. Even now, with the high commissioner returning to New Delhi, reducing the diplomatic presence is a priority. The Canadians are trying to engage in a second-way dialogue if direct talks are not possible. Elcock admits that after the position taken by India since the meeting between Canadian and Indian officials in Singapore, it seems that short-term measures are not of much help.

New Delhi has spared no effort to highlight the terrorist-criminal nexus of pro-Khalistan gangs, like those in Nijjar and Bishnoi, operating from Canada to target Indian states. Kulkarni said the Bishnoi gang had terrorized many states in northern India, which is why the NIA was asked to investigate and bust it.

While intelligence agencies on both sides may not see eye to eye at the moment, civil society voices want political leaders to at least keep the windows of basic diplomacy open. The second step could be an easing of the movement of people and goods, since India and Canada still maintain extremely important people-to-people ties. Ottawa must keep the interests of Indian Canadians and students in mind by not letting them fall prey to politics and ensuring that visas continue to flow. While there may be no progress on trade deals at the moment, businesses and the private sector should not feel punished. Canadian circles also envision a dialogue between media from both sides to explain national dynamics to each other to avoid assumptions in reporting.

“This is particularly important for Canada, which has recently become interested in the Indo-Pacific,” says Miller. “If we want to be even remotely relevant in this part of the world, having a damaging relationship with India will not help us. »

There may be no short-term solutions, as Elcock warns, but Canadians might still be willing to take a long-term view of their relationship with the Indians.