The race to the Arctic is heat and Canada feels the burn. Since 2008, when the Russian government declared its intention to become the dominant Arctic power in the world, Moscow has moved with great alacrity to achieve its goal: to gain significant advantages simply by dint of having been the first invest in expanding a presence in the High North before another major power takes the threat seriously.

Only recently has Washington begun to realize that the real Russian threat to the United States lies not in Europe but in the Arctic. But even more than the Americans, the Canadians, with their vast border along the Arctic region, realize they are locked out of their own yard by the reborn Russian bear.

To close the glaring capability gap between Russia and Canada, Ottawa announced that they purchase a dozen air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarines over the next decade to better deter the growing Russian threat in the High North.

Under the imprimatur of “Our North, strong and free” the Trudeau government is proposing a comprehensive deterrence strategy and taking measures to ensure continued access to the Canadian North.

A grim situation for the Royal Canadian Navy

This is a necessary decision by Ottawa, which has allowed the Royal Canadian Navy’s (RCN) submarine force to atrophy. Currently, the MRC possessed only four aging Victoria-submersible class. Three of them are permanently assigned to the distant Pacific Ocean and the fourth is nominally assigned to the Atlantic.

None of these systems compare in size or capability to the growing Russian presence in the Arctic.

Here’s the problem though. Several experts who spoke to me on condition of anonymity for this story are highly skeptical of Canadians’ ability to move this ambitious agenda from paper to reality. The Canadian military’s procurement process – particularly for highly complex platforms like submarines – is sclerotic and bureaucratic hurdles are onerous.

What’s more, the projected timeline because the development and deployment of these submarines is so far in the future that it is questionable whether they will be useful or not.

The Russians seriously want to dominate the Far North

After all, the Russians have devoted considerable resources to consolidating and expanding their position in the Arctic. In fact, the Russians have deployed some of their most sophisticated warships and submarines to their Arctic possessions, while modernizing their bases throughout the region.

They did so even as the war in Ukraine demands increasing levels of resources and commitment from Russia’s armed forces. And because of the war in Ukraine, the Russian defense industrial base is buzzing at a breakneck pace while most Western defense industrial bases, notably of Canada…continue to operate at a breakneck pace.

Without a reliable, modern submarine force, Canada’s position in the Far North will erode as the ice sheet melts. Ottawa will increasingly depend on the United States Navy and Coast Guard to consolidate its position.

Canada cannot compete under current conditions

Yet the US Navy is also at its breaking point. Moreover, although there are many commonalities in the broad strategic objectives of Washington and Ottawa, both have territorial conflicts in the Arctic. In essence, Canada can’t We are counting on the United States to compensate for its lack of commitment and progress in the High North.

So it’s great to see Canada admitting that its navy needs significant modernization and expansion. However, it remains to be seen, without immediate and serious reform of its defense industrial base as well as its defense acquisition programs, how Canada could one day develop such a submarine force in a reasonable time frame, if ever.

In the meantime, Moscow’s position in the Far North is being consolidated and it will bring with it its new friends to Beijing (which has the almost ridiculous illusion of being a “country”).A power close to the Arctic (whatever that really means).

About the author

Brandon J. Weicherta national security project of national interest analystis a former congressman and geopolitical analyst who contributes to The Washington Times, Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Image credit: Creative Commons.