Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance speaks to a crowd of supporters Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024, at Berlin Circuit in Marne, Ottawa County. | Sarah Leach

With less than two weeks until the presidential election, the Trump and Harris campaigns are at a standstill in Michigan — a swing state — with more than 40 events this year in the Mitten State.

As candidates’ weekly visits intensify, smaller communities and venues have been targeted by Republicans in an effort to influence out-of-state rural voters. In a statistical dead heat for Michigan’s 15 electoral votes, the question remains: Does it work?

According to polls published this week by NPR and the New York TimesThe nation’s seven swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — remain a showdown between former President Donald Trump, a Republican, and Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat.

As part of Trump’s campaign strategy, U.S. Senator JD Vance (Republican of Ohio) visited smaller, more rural areas than presidential campaigns usually do, such as Traverse City in the north of Michigan, Sparta in Kent County, Green Township in Mecosta County and Macomb County. Shelby and Marne Township in Ottawa County. Although Trump also held a rally in Traverse City on Friday evening, he targeted more metropolitan areas such as Detroit, Grand Rapids, Flint and Saginaw.

It’s an attempt to appeal to rural voters who hold a specific set of values ​​that Republicans want to achieve, according to Whitt Kilburn, a political science professor at Grand Valley State University.

“Vance appears in small towns, townships and even almost rural areas. It seems that they want to use these events as a way to highlight their affiliation with social groups that they associate with a kind of small-town American and, through that, their association with a particular type of social values,” said Kilburn, who specializes in American politics, public opinion, elections and voting behavior.

Kilburn explained that communities like Sparta and Marne, which tend to have smaller and more homogeneous populations than urban communities, tend to be more conservative in elections, a demographic that Republicans want to capture.

“These are places where I think they can emphasize their connection to a particular set of social groups…that kind of rural Michigan, where I think they want to communicate that by showing up in these places, they’re talking on behalf of that particular group of people,” Kilburn said. “It’s all about communicating support and association with certain social groups and cultural values ​​that they want to support.”

That resonated with people like Lisa Winfield, 59, of Kent County, who was born in Canada before immigrating to the United States. She attended Vance’s campaign event at the Berlin Circuit in Marne on October 2 after not being able to see him. during a previous campaign stop.

“I think it’s like a once-in-a-lifetime thing … to be able to see something like that,” she said. “I just think he’s a great speaker. I think he really keeps some things even. He’s a very real person. He just wants to do good for the people.

Witburn said it’s not necessarily about knowing where all the votes are, but about communicating “a particular set of associations with social groups and values ​​that their voters find attractive.”

“So it doesn’t matter whether they’re Reagan Republicans in Macomb County or real farmers in Sparta,” he said. “It’s about communicating with all of their constituents and being affiliated with these different groups.”

Richard Zang of Muskegon was also at the event in Marne, saying he liked the choice of a smaller venue.

“You’re getting the message across, aren’t you? Go to a small venue, and they rely on people… to go to the smaller venues and eventually grow and expand it to the bigger cities,” he said.

Witburn said it’s all about making voters understand that the campaign is standing up for their values ​​and interests.

“Simply put, it’s about communicating to people: ‘We are one of you.’ We want to do things with government that will benefit people like you, or people you love, groups you love. I think it all depends on the group nature, the social nature of the vote,” Witburn said. “People use social groups a lot as sort of reference points or cues for how to vote.”

And small, crowded rooms, like those of 300 to 400 people at Vance’s Marne event, show good optics.

“They all want to avoid the worst possible media coverage of the event, which would be a camera rolling around empty seats,” Witburn said. It’s about managing expectations and being able to say that “here we arrived and it was standing room only.” People waited outside for hours, rather than going into a cavernous auditorium somewhere.

Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, also made campaign stops in small cities and towns across Michigan, including in September in Petoskey and Harbor Springs in Emmet County, as well as in Scio Township , in Washtenaw County.

Kilburn said vice presidential nominee selections by themselves don’t often move presidential candidates’ chances of winning.

They can, however, increase their support based on the demographics and groups the leading candidate wants to win at the polls.

“Historically, vice-presidential candidates are generally not thought to make much of a difference in campaigns,” Kilburn said. “But it does win points in different parts of your usual coalition of supporters that you’re trying to hold together.”

He used the example of Harris selecting Walz to hopefully do as well as Biden has historically done with the labor movement.

“I guess the question is: Is this really persuading voters, or is Walz really kind of activating voters who are predisposed to favor Harris, but maybe just need a little help? I think you can see this in the same terms of kind of group voting.

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