Former president of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili issued an urgent warning to the West: Russia He is preparing to take over his country after this weekend’s elections with the help of a billionaire oligarch who makes his money from Moscow.

He believes that by distorting the results and suppressing the protests, the Kremlin aims to reassert its authority over this important Western ally. and banning opposition parties from crushing the fledgling democracy and sending a signal to other former Soviet states.

“Russia is planning to take over another European country,” he said. “If Georgia disappears, it would mean a huge loss for the West, its values ​​and geopolitical interests.”

Mr. Saakashvili was Georgia’s staunchly pro-Western leader when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Although his supporters insist he is a political prisoner, he was sentenced to six years in prison on charges of abuse of power after returning from exile in 2021.

His ouster after nine years in office was carried out by Georgian Dream, a party founded a few months ago by the country’s richest man, Bidzina Ivanishvili. The 2012 elections marked the country’s first democratic transition of power.

Mr. Saakashvili’s warning, delivered to me from behind bars in seven pages of handwritten notes, came at a time of growing domestic and diplomatic fears that Mr. Ivanishvili was secretly returning this fiercely pro-European country to Russian hands.

“When I warned the West about the threat to Georgia, they thought I was provocative and quite crazy. Then my worst fears came true and Russia attacked my country militarily,” wrote Mr. Saakashvili, who also served as governor of Odessa in Ukraine.

“After I loudly warned that an attack on Ukraine was imminent, even my friends in the West thought I said this because I was angry about the attack on Georgia.

“When I warned the West that Ivanishvili was a direct Russian agent and not like other politicians, they thought I was just trying to stay in power, which was never the case.”

Georgia’s 3.7 million people go to the polls on Saturday in what is widely considered a referendum to determine their future: whether to continue their push to join the European Union and NATO or return to Moscow’s control under Mr. Ivanishvili.

The mysterious billionaire, who made a fortune in banking and commodities during Russia’s “gangster capitalism” period after the collapse of the Soviet Union, claims that his party will protect Georgia from the fate that befell him, while attacking the “global war party” that allegedly dominates the West. by Ukraine.

Georgian Dream rejected sanctions against Russia following its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, angering Kiev, publicly saying it would ban rival parties and introducing legislation earlier this year that mimics Vladimir Putin’s measures targeting LGBT citizens and silencing dissent.

Gay rights activists have accused the ruling Georgian Dream party of following Putin’s playbook by targeting LGBT citizens and fueling such hostility that many have left the country. Type Ian Birrell and Sopho Apriamashvili.

Last month, the party passed a strict law “on family values ​​and the protection of minors” that bans gender transition, Pride events and rainbow flags, invalidates same-sex unions performed abroad and imposes strict censorship on art, books and films.

The day after the bill passed, Georgia’s most famous transgender woman was stabbed to death in her home. Her boyfriend was arrested following reports of domestic violence, but the attack raised concerns that politicians were fueling hatred.

Tamar Jakeli, director of Tbilisi Pride, a campaign group featured in Georgian Dream campaign ads against “moral degradation”, said the spiraling climate of hatred was forcing many LGBT citizens to flee the country.

“They chose homophobia as one of the main political narratives,” said Ms. Jakeli, 28, who believes she will face either fleeing abroad or imprisonment if the government wins. ”It feels personally dangerous; I wake up every day with anxiety.

“The law is completely inspired by Russia; In fact, it is slightly worse than the law adopted by Putin. The rhetoric is the same as in Russia. “Saying that Georgia has traditional values ​​is used against the West.”

The controversial “Russia law” labeling organizations that receive more than 20 percent of funding from abroad as “foreign agents” has sparked weeks of mass protests that were met with beatings and tear gas. Washington condemned the law as “Kremlin-inspired”.

Mr. Saakashvili believes Mr. Putin is actively supporting Mr. Ivanishvili to “fully return Georgia to Russia as the historical jewel of their empire,” while cutting off the West from key energy and transportation corridors to Central Asia and Azerbaijan.

“This will also carry great symbolic meaning, as Georgia is seen as a bastion of Western influence in our region and a role model for reforms and success. “Ending this would send a strong signal to other potential Western allies.”

The former president said Georgian Dream planned to falsify the election results, crack down on subsequent protests and then go “on the offensive” by banning rival parties, mass arrests and silencing dissenting voices in the media and NGOs.

She also fears that Mr. Ivanishvili, who suggested last month that Georgia should apologize for the 2008 war that led to the seizure of the South Ossetia region, killing about 850 people and forcibly displacing 192,000 people, will threaten to remove her and other leading members of her party from office. He is on trial for resisting Russian occupation.

Mr. Saakashvili wants to see the West urgently implement the sanctions threatened against Ivanishvili and his inner circle. “It is important to take immediate action before it is too late,” he said.

Mr. Saakashvili’s concerns about election fraud and the ensuing crackdown are shared by opposition parties, think tanks and Western diplomats in Tbilisi. The Russian foreign ministry is increasing tensions with allegations that the USA is preparing a coup.

Even Mr. Ivanishvili’s former ministers and aides confirmed the fears. “Bidzina’s (Ivanishvili) primary concern has always been his own security and well-being,” said Gia Khukhashvili, a former friend and advisor. “He made fatal mistakes that left him hostage to Putin.”

The economist believes that the billionaire, fearing a Russian attack on Ukraine, secretly offered support to the Kremlin. “When you declare your loyalty to an empire, it sees it as a sign of weakness, and Russia demanded guarantees of that loyalty,” Mr. Khukashvili said.

“If the Georgian Dream remains in power, Russia will accelerate Georgia’s reintegration into the Russian Empire. “Like Belarus, this process will also intensify.”

He sees the election as a test of Moscow’s ability to take back the countries it lost while standing at a crucial crossroads between East and West. “By controlling Georgia, Russia is solving the problem of restoring the Soviet Union’s influence in the south,” he said.

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But Mr. Saakashvili’s legacy complicates the election as he remains a polarizing figure in Georgia due to the rapid pace of modernization programs and alleged human rights abuses in the later years of his term following Russia’s offensive.

His appeal against his sentence was rejected by the European Court of Human Rights in May. However, there are concerns about his health following the hunger strike and the lack of necessary medical care. Following allegations that he attempted to be poisoned, his mother now prepares all meals in prison.

The former president told me that he was deprived of his most basic rights. “I do not have the right to make phone calls or meet with MPs. “I haven’t seen the sun or been exposed to fresh air in over three years.”

Tina Bokuchava, head of the United National Movement and leading opposition figure, hailed him as their country’s greatest visionary who “dared to dream of a brighter future for Georgians and make it a reality.”

He said there was no longer any ambiguity about Georgian Dream’s pro-Russian stance and that their future in Europe was at stake in this weekend’s elections after their success in shedding the “Soviet rubble” and emerging as a democratic nation.

“Putin doesn’t like having democracies, especially successful democracies, on his doorstep. “This poses a threat to his rule and undermines his authority.”

Georgian Dream claims it can advance into Europe while keeping Mr Putin at bay. But even one party activist told me that he was horrified by the backsliding against Europe and pro-Russian rhetoric but was afraid to speak out because of concerns about reprisals.

“I won’t vote for them,” he said, adding that he feared their stance could lead to another war after the post-election turmoil. “People will be killed senselessly and those in power will still pursue their own interests.”

Georgian Dream denied upsetting their nation’s future in Europe, dismissed concerns that the vote was rigged and insisted it would win the election easily; but polls supporting such claims are widely viewed as unconvincing.

The party’s senior lawmaker, Nikoloz Samkharadze, said it was “complete nonsense” to accuse them of following Putin’s path, adding that this was another election in which people had to decide whether they wanted peace and economic growth.

“There is no evidence that in the last 12 years of the Georgian Dream government Georgia has done anything to serve Russia’s interests in this country or in this region.”

But this contradicts the message Mr. Saakashvili sent me from his prison cell ahead of this crucial election. “The West must be conscious and ready,” he concluded.

I He attempted to contact Mr. Ivanishvili for comment.