In the current state of affairsHarris would need to garner a minimum of 226 electoral votes and Trump 219. If that holds, Harris would need just 44 electoral votes to reach the magic threshold of 270, while Trump would need 51. That means every vote in every swing county within every swing state matters.

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Here are the most important counties to watch throughout election night.

Arizona (Maricopa County, Santa Cruz County)

Of all the swing states, Arizona has the fewest counties with only 15 of its 113,998 square miles. However, it is home to some of the most important counties that will influence the presidential election.

Maricopa County, located in the south-central part of the state, could be the most important county on election night, according to J. Miles Coleman. Sabato’s crystal ball.

The county is home to nearly 62 percent of Arizona’s population and is home to several crucial demographic groups, including Hispanics, centrist Republicans and older voters. Maricopa County is critical for a presidential candidate to win the state, and it generally favors Republicans.

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Trump won the county in 2016 with 47.6% of the vote before turning to Joe Biden in 2020, who won Maricopa with 50% of the vote.

Another crucial county to watch in Arizona is Santa Cruz County, located on the southern border and home to a large Hispanic population and could be a bellwether for the national Hispanic vote.

“Perhaps paradoxically, Santa Cruz County probably taught us more about the Hispanic vote nationally than about the Hispanic vote in the rest of Arizona,” Coleman wrote. “According to Catalist’s post-2020 national report, Hispanics overall turned to Trump by a margin comparable to Hispanic precincts in Santa Cruz County.”

The county will be an important indicator for Trump, as it swung about 12 points in his direction between 2016 and 2020. However, Biden still carried the county by 35 points, giving Harris an edge, but that could indicate how Trump will fare with Hispanic voters. in the rest of the country.

Georgia (Fayette County, Sumter County)

Georgia has become a swing state like no other in recent years following Biden’s 2020 victory, the first time a Democrat won the Peach State in nearly three decades.

Biden’s surprising performance in Georgia was crucial to his victory over Trump, and Harris now hopes a similar upset will propel her to the White House in November.

Unlike Arizona, Georgia has the most counties of any swing state: 159. And there are two counties in particular that could be ripe for Democrats to flip, according to Sabato’s crystal ball.

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One of them is Fayette County, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020. However, his margin of victory fell from 19 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016 to just 7 points above Biden in 2020 – giving to Harris an opening to secure the county in an effort to win the state’s 16 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, Republicans will look to Sumter County for a change in direction. If Trump manages to win the state, much of his support will likely come from these types of rural counties, according to Sabato’s crystal ball.

Biden carried the county by 5 points in 2020, but Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) was the only Democrat to win a statewide contest there in 2022, paving the way for Trump to overturn the county. situation this year.

“Assuming Georgia remains highly competitive, we expect Fayette County to move toward Harris and Sumter County toward Trump, while a ‘maximum realignment’ scenario could involve both counties switching positions. camp,” Coleman wrote in an analysis for Sabato’s crystal ball.

Michigan (Saginaw County, Muskegon County, Grand Traverse County)

Michigan was one of the surprise states that helped secure Trump’s victory in 2016 and has since become a major swing state coveted by both Republicans and Democrats.

Trump won Michigan by a narrow margin in 2016, making him the first Republican to win the state in a presidential election since 1988. The state then turned against Biden, who won by nearly 3 points in 2020.

To win back Michigan, Trump will want to flip Saginaw County and maintain control of what’s known as the Cherry Coast, located along Lake Michigan. Saginaw County is considered the state’s sole bellwether because it is the only county to vote with the state in the last four presidential elections.

As a result, Harris will want to win that county, as well as Muskegon, which has a large black population, according to Dave Wasserman, editor of the nonpartisan newspaper. Cook Political Report.

Another bellwether for the state is Grand Traverse County, which has generally leaned Republican but shifted toward Democrats when the state re-elected Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) in 2022.

Although election forecasters don’t believe Harris needs to win the county to secure a victory in the state, they say the vice president will want to limit Trump to a plurality there.

North Carolina (New Hanover County, Cabarrus County)

Although North Carolina is one of the least competitive battleground states, Democrats view it as ripe for Election Day takeover.

There may not be a single county that will be a pure bellwether in North Carolina, according to Wasserman, but he said the state is likely to give a more complete picture of how some counties lean more early on election night compared to other states.

However, Harris will need to perform well in some counties if she wants to win the state’s 16 electoral votes.

Among those is New Hanover County, which Harris will need to win to increase his chances of winning the state. New Hanover is one of those counties that should finish counting first, so Harris will likely know his chances in the Tar Heel State early in the night.

Harris will also need to be within reach in Cabarrus County, home to most of Charlotte’s eastern suburban communities. Although Trump won the county with 54% of the vote in 2020, it was the only county in North Carolina to fall away by more than 10 percentage points, giving Democrats some sense of optimism that the possibility to further reduce its support.

“At the presidential level, it would be a surprise if Harris actually flips Cabarrus County, but we are looking to see how far she can go beyond Biden’s 44.5%” as of 2020, Coleman wrote.

Pennsylvania (Erie County, Northampton County, Lackawanna County, Lehigh County)

Pennsylvania has established itself as the cornerstone of the 2024 elections. Its 19 electoral votes and battleground status make it one of the biggest prizes on election night and crucial to win the presidency.

The state played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory in 2016 and Biden’s victory in 2020. Many counties will be bellwethers of who is likely to win the state, and perhaps the White House itself.

Among those is Erie County, which Trump won by 2 percentage points when he won Pennsylvania in 2016 before losing it by 1 point to Biden in 2020. The county voted for the winning presidential candidate in the last four elections.

Northampton County is also considered an important bellwether in Pennsylvania. It has selected the winning candidate in all but three presidential elections since 1912.

Another county to watch is Lackawanna County, which contains Biden’s hometown of Scranton. Harris will want to perform well there because the northeast county has historically supported Democrats, even as it has shifted toward Republicans in recent years.

“We would probably expect Harris’ margin in Lackawanna County to fall somewhere between Clinton’s and Biden’s if she were on track to win the state,” Coleman wrote.

Lehigh County will also be closely watched, especially since it contains one of the most competitive House races in the 2024 cycle — a down race that could be a bellwether for the presidential election. The House district has chosen the winning presidential candidate for the past seven cycles, according to Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA), who is candidate for re-election on this seat.

Wisconsin (Door County, Richland County, Marquette County, Columbia County, Lincoln County)

Wisconsin has long been one of the most contentious battleground states, as four of the last six presidential elections there have been decided by less than one point. The state has also chosen the presidential winner in the last four elections.

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As a result, candidates will want to keep an eye on Door County, which has become a reliable bellwether for the state in recent cycles. The county has chosen the winning presidential candidate for the past seven cycles.

Other indicators include Richland and Marquette counties, which have chosen the winning candidate in all but one presidential election since 1980. Columbia and Lincoln counties are also good indicators, having chosen the winning candidate in all presidential elections except two since 1980.

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