Ahead of England’s decider clash with Australia at Twickenham Stadium, Wallabies great David Campese previews the Autumn Nations Series match with his five talking points.

England hit the ground running

“We are in a scenario where England have an advantage over Australia based on the extra match against New Zealand and the momentum they gained in that Test, despite the result, ” Campese explain.

“The second Bledisloe Test was the last time the Wallabies played, around two months ago, and while there have been signs of improvement, they are still nowhere near the level of defensive intensity and power attacking which England have already shown and I think this will be the case. It will be a really difficult day on the gain line and at the break for the Australians.

“Two months is a long time in terms of Test rugby – especially when you’re playing in different climatic conditions against a group of players you don’t meet often, certainly at national level, and I feel the defeat The tight battle England endured will really galvanize their resolve.

“They also simply have to change the perception of most men; narrow defeats to France, New Zealand three times and the Rugby World Cup semi-final against South Africa will weigh heavily on their minds. They might deny it, they will talk about learning and trajectory, but believe me, deep down they will have doubts about their ability to close out games, and that gives Australia their best chance.

Play 80 minutes

“I saw an interesting statistic that England only averaged three points in the last quarter of their matches under Steve Borthwick. I then look at the five narrow defeats I mentioned and they have one thing in common: in each case England were ahead after 60 minutes. “, Campese confirmed.

“Now this confirms one of two things: either England have a fitness problem or their bench is simply not having an impact on how their starters are.

“Personally, I think it’s a combination of both, coupled with the removal of players who control the match.

“Hearing Borthwick’s comments on his replacement strategy last Saturday, he said something along the lines of: ‘When you have the talent Ford and co have, why don’t you put them in?’ Now, I couldn’t disagree with this more simply because it sounds like pre-planning and suggests that strategy is not based on live data and what’s happening before the coaches’ eyes.

“Removing Marcus Smith and Ben Spencer when they had the game under control against the All Blacks was absolutely ridiculous – what was there to gain with the new men? Was it more or less risky to continue with the incumbent operators? I think we all know the answer to that question!

“So the Wallabies, a team who have shown good fitness and stamina in the latter stages of their Rugby Championship campaign, must box smart: load the bench with quality knowing that the England are their weakest in the last 20.

“Specifically, Will Skelton and Taniela Tupou are not 60 or 70 minute players. But in the final 25 minutes, if they come on, England have nothing to match their power and Schmidt would be wise to box intelligently and hold them back when England are most vulnerable.

“Stay within one score and the game is there to be won in the last 20.”

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Red zone contrast

“England made four visits to the All Blacks 22 for a combined total of just over two minutes in their red zone during the Test last weekend. More than half of those minutes came in the final five minutes of the match, when England fought a 14-man scrum but failed to attack and hold in the face of numerical weakness, something I finds it confusing. Rather than killing with the ball in hand, the emphasis has been on the drop goal and I think this weekend they need to show a lot more ambition with the ball in hand and threaten the line a lot more and the red zone.

“South Africa are masters at retaining the ball in these scenarios and eroding the defensive system with waves of pressure and retention around the 22-yard mark, meaning they are always able to to take points or break down a tiring defense England simply don’t exert as much pressure around that 22-yard line, something Australia are well aware of.

“The Wallabies have a very good record of converting points when they are in the opposition red zone; if they can build momentum and have the back-line carriers to make big strides, then the relative effectiveness of the two sides will fall in Australia’s favor.

England midfielder

“Continuing the theme of England’s attacking inefficiency, I noted that Henry Slade and Ollie Lawrence swapped central positions this weekend,” Campese continued.

“Some might think it’s no big deal, but I disagree. England are in a compromise situation – Slade is a brilliant and tenacious defender at 13, the most difficult position to defend, but on the other hand his pace and distribution are well behind that of Lawrence, who is by far England’s best attacking 13.

“I think we will see England employ a hybrid formation. Expect to see Slade at 13 in defense, but Lawrence there in first phase attack. If Lawrence is at 13 in defense, expect to see Australia flood that channel with waves at the corner of nine and ten.

“On the other hand, Slade at 12 means fewer meters for direct carries from Australia’s big forwards and centers.

“It’s a very interesting decision from England, which I completely understand, but I will be interested to see what they win last weekend with the defensive solidity they showed.”

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Australian DNA

“Finally, if Australia is going to get a win on Saturday, then they need to play the Australian way.

“I am aware of the rumors around Rugby Australia that Joe Schmidt is unlikely to continue beyond the 2025 Lions series – mainly due to health concerns in his immediate family – and I wish him all the best for deal with this.

“Today seems to be a day characterized by political blowbacks (!) The buzz is that RA is already talking to Micheal Cheika about a return to the Wallaby head coaching role after his time at Leicester Tigers, which I believe , are already preparing for this eventuality by starting a dialogue with Graham Rowntree in terms of a succession plan.

“For me, Schmidt is a great organizer but he is too controlling. Australia’s way is creation, invention and flair, not snarling mauls at 30 yards. This will play into England’s hands and they know how to put a team into a standoff.

“Australia need to play free and wide, pulling the English bigs forward around the park and then using that power on the bench to good effect.

“A lot of Poms see this as a game they can’t lose, but from what I’ve seen England are capable of losing any game they play in the last 20 matches and Australia must box intelligently and react to the match in front, not run planned moves all day which simply do not reflect our rugby culture and values.

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