close
close

Le-verdict

News with a Local Lens

Five takeaways from BYU’s CFP Top 25 ranking
minsta

Five takeaways from BYU’s CFP Top 25 ranking

As of Tuesday evening, BYU was ranked No. 1. 9th in the inaugural CFP Top 25 rankings. BYU’s ranking was described by ESPN analyst called ‘painfully low’. Here is what we remember from the first CFP ranking of the 2024 season.

When the rankings were released and SMU came in at number 1.13, I thought that would bode well for BYU’s rankings. Surely, if the committee thought so highly of SMU that it ranked it in the top 13, and on the cusp of a CFP debut, the team that handed it its only loss of the season should be highly regarded …isn’t it? Especially since this team beat the Mustangs in a real road game?

And surely, if that same team pulls off another 29-point victory over a Kansas State team ranked in the top 20, that team would have one of the best resumes in the country. On top of that, this team hasn’t committed any slip-ups like most other teams in the country. That’s a better resume than Indiana, Miami, Penn State, Texas and Tennessee.

Instead, BYU was ranked behind Indiana – a winless team over any team with a winning record.

BYU was ranked behind Miami – a team that had a win over a Top 25 team and needed three tiebreak games to be overturned by a replay in order to pull off close victories.

BYU was ranked behind big brands Texas, Tennessee and Penn State who have fewer wins over Top 25 teams than BYU combined: one. This side-by-side comparison of BYU’s resume versus Penn State’s is the perfect example. If the logos and brand names were removed and these two resumes were stacked against each other, there would be no excuse for ranking BYU’s resume below Penn State’s.

BYU deserved to be ranked higher based on his resume. Results must matter, or the value of the college football regular season will diminish. The words of the director of the CFP do not provide an answer either. The CFP committee should be required to be more transparent in its rankings.

If BYU drops a game in the regular season, it’s hard to imagine there will be a path to an at-large birth. According to the committee’s philosophy this season, the only way for BYU to win an at-large is for BYU to go undefeated in the regular season before losing in the Big 12 Championship. An 11-2 BYU team with a loss in the Big 12 Championship n ‘probably won’t get in.

BYU has some wiggle room to advance to the Big 12 championship, but there isn’t much wiggle room to enter the CFP.

There might be an exception to this – and it depends on how SMU performs from here on out.

BYU’s best win right now is the no. 13 EMS. This ranking is very significant, because as things currently stand, the Mustangs are one spot out of the CFP.

If BYU loses a game in November, SMU’s ranking will likely dictate where BYU will be ranked after a loss. Given that the Cougars have a head-to-head win against SMU, BYU would likely be ranked just ahead of SMU if they keep winning.

This is good news for BYU – it would put the Cougars in the top 12 even with a loss.

This is BYU’s only path to an at-large birth with an 11-2 record, including a loss in the Big 12 title game: if SMU wins and wins the ACC. If the Mustangs win, BYU would earn one of the top five wins of the 2024 college football season. That could be enough to slip through with two losses.

When the CFP committee director was asked why Indiana was ranked ahead of BYU, he cited the scoring margin in Indiana’s games. Then, when asked if Miami was ranked ahead of BYU, he said, “It came down more to an eye test.”

So what is it? Because if we consider the goal margin, Miami needed three miracles to win three games this season. Does it pass the eye test?

The CFP ranking should be accompanied by more transparency from the committee.

The four highest-ranked conference champions get the top four seeds in the CFP and the fifth-highest-rated conference champion gets an automatic first-round bid. It’s highly likely that all four Power Four champions will get those byes, but it’s not guaranteed.

Boise State is ranked dangerously close to BYU at number 1. 12 in the CFP. If BYU loses a game and then wins the Big 12, there is no guarantee that BYU will secure a top four spot.

If a team like Iowa State or Kansas State wins the Big 12, it’s even less likely they’ll make the top four.