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Rafael could enter the Gulf as a hurricane, but local concern remains low

Pabio November 5, 2024

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) – Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean Monday afternoon and appears destined to move toward the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and is expected to become the 11th hurricane in about a day.

In search of the tropics: Monday November 4(WAFB)

Official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Monday afternoon show a general northwesterly direction over the next few days, bringing the storm very close to the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and near or over western Cuba by Wednesday. Strengthening is expected and NHC does not rule out rapid intensification. Monday’s forecast shows it reaching western Cuba with Category 2 intensity.

Rafael is expected to enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday evening as a hurricane. Beyond that, confidence in forecasts declines significantly. Model solutions range from a track in the Florida peninsula south and west to Mexico. The details of Rafael’s interaction with high pressure to the east and an upper-level trough from the west still need to be resolved. But these will be the key elements to managing the storm later this week as it moves through the Gulf.

So what are the takeaways for those of us who live in South Louisiana? First, our local level of concern is still low. Even though the official forecast shows Rafael near or just south of Louisiana by this weekend, there’s still a good chance he’ll stay well east or south of us. Additionally, even if it moved northward into the Gulf, conditions are expected to be much more hostile and significant weakening would likely occur. For now, keep monitoring the trends and we should have a better idea of its future by mid-week. As for Saturday’s LSU-Alabama game, I don’t expect any major impacts at this time, but again, we’ll have to monitor the trends.