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    • Tropical Storm Rafael is forming in the Caribbean and is expected to enter the Gulf as a hurricane.
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    Tropical Storm Rafael is forming in the Caribbean and is expected to enter the Gulf as a hurricane.

    Pabio Posted on

    SOUTH MISSISSIPPI – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is tracking Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast to become a hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico this week.

    Environmental conditions should be favorable enough for Rafael to become stronger in the Caribbean. Forecasts show it could reach Category 2 in a few days as it crosses western Cuba and heads toward the Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday afternoon or Thursday. If it attempts to move towards the northern Gulf, it risks becoming a tropical storm again.

    National Hurricane Center 9:00 p.m. Projected track and intensity for Tropical Storm Rafael
    National Hurricane Center 9:00 p.m. Projected track and intensity for Tropical Storm Rafael(wlox)

    WHAT WILL BE THE MANAGEMENT MODEL?

    Rafael’s path will ultimately depend on the strength of a high pressure system over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic. A stronger high pressure area would keep Rafael further west. A weaker area of ​​high pressure would help steer Rafael toward the north or northeast of the Gulf.

    WHAT FACTORS COULD WEAKEN OR STRENGTHEN RAFAEL?

    What works in Rafael’s favor? Sea surface temperatures and low wind shear over the southern Gulf. What works against Rafael? Land interaction with Cuba this week, lack of deeply warm Gulf water, stronger wind shear near the northern Gulf.

    Sea surface temperatures Monday afternoon.
    Sea surface temperatures Monday afternoon.(WLOX)
    Dry air could weaken Rafael in the Gulf
    Dry air could weaken Rafael in the Gulf(WLOX)
    Strong wind shear along the northern Gulf could weaken Rafael by the end of the week.
    Strong wind shear along the northern Gulf could weaken Rafael by the end of the week.(WLOX)

    WHAT CAN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EXPECT?

    Since Rafael is just training, the models may take some time to become more accurate with the specific details such as the track and intensity of this system.

    At this time, our local forecast calls for slightly higher rain chances around Friday and Saturday, which could be associated with tropical weather. And our weather could be rather windy on those days, depending on how close Rafael is.

    If TD Eighteen really had an impact on the weather on the Mississippi coast, it would be around Friday...
    If TD Eighteen actually had an impact on coastal Mississippi weather, it would be around Friday or Saturday of this week. For now, however, there is uncertainty regarding the weekend forecast. So it’s not yet clear whether we’ll see anything from it or not.

    In the meantime, it’s a good idea to keep checking the forecast, as details will likely become clearer in the coming days.

    This reminds us that hurricane season doesn’t officially end until November 30.

    By the way, since 1850, only three hurricanes have made landfall in the United States during the month of November.

    November hurricanes have made landfall since 1850
    November hurricanes have made landfall since 1850(WLOX)

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    Pabio
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