A Donald Trump presidency could increase costs for Canadian and Alberta businesses, while Kamala Harris’ policies are expected to have minimal direct impact on Alberta. Jean David Tremblay-Frenette, chief economist at AIMCO, joined CTV Morning Live’s Kent Morrison to discuss what Albertans might see in the future.

This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

Kent Morrison: The outcome of tomorrow’s U.S. election could have a significant impact on our province, whoever wins. We welcome Jean David Tremblay-Frenette, Chief Economist at AIMCO, to learn more about this. Let’s talk about Donald Trump first if he wins. He talked about tariffs, what could that mean for us in Alberta?

Jean David Tremblay-Frenette: Trump’s proposals aim for widespread protectionism. He talks about blanket tariffs of 60 percent on all imports from China, but also tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on imports from all other countries, including Canada. So in practice this means higher prices for all the goods that Canadian and Alberta companies use to produce the final goods.

Kent: This could have a big impact at a time when the Canadian dollar is also in a difficult situation at the moment. Is this expected to continue?

Jean-David: Yes, frankly, at this point it is very clear that if President Trump is elected, then we will find ourselves in a period of potentially higher prices and further rising inflation. This means that on both sides of the border, central banks must keep interest rates somewhat higher.

Kent: And Kamala Harris? Will there be an impact here in Alberta if she wins?

Jean-David: In fact, the impact of Harris’ proposals is rather discreet. It focuses more on domestic politics than foreign trade. That’s a big political difference. So, higher taxes for businesses in the United States, but also increased support for social housing, a continuation of the green program in the United States. Overall, this doesn’t have much impact for Canada.

Kent: Now, this green agenda on renewable energy. What would this do for Alberta’s energy sector?

Jean-David: The reality here is that the energy transition process is very long in nature.

We are talking about decades in which fossil fuels are still extremely necessary to the functioning of the global economy.

Overall, this doesn’t mean much change for Alberta, at least in the short to medium term.

We’re going to continue to export a lot of natural gas through some pipelines that go through British Columbia to Asia.

Kent: The USMCA, also known as the new NAFTA, is due to be renegotiated in 2026. What could be the impact of this agreement, if one of these two leaders wins?

Jean-David: Both sides announced that they would seek a comprehensive renegotiation of the CUSMA trade agreement.

This means that Canada must prepare for a difficult negotiation process that will last for some time.

So, for now, everything seems relatively constant on the business side. However, in 2026 it will be a different story.

Kent: We appreciate your insight for us this morning, and we’ll definitely be watching closely Tuesday evening.