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Tropical Depression 18 forms and is expected to enter the Gulf as a hurricane

Pabio November 5, 2024

SOUTH MISSISSIPPI – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is tracking emerging Tropical Depression Eighteen in the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast to become a hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico this week.

According to the National Hurricane Center Monday morning, data from Air Force hurricane chasers, satellite images and surface observations indicated that the low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea had developed a well-defined center and produced deep, organized thunderstorm activity. The system therefore finally met the criteria for a tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eighteen was located in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on Monday morning.(wlox)

Tropical Depression 18 is expected to move toward the Gulf later this week.(wlox)

TD Eighteen is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves toward the Gulf later this week.(wlox)

Environmental conditions should be favorable enough for TD Eighteen to become stronger. It is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm by Monday afternoon. The next available name is Rafael.

Forecasts show it could reach Category 1 hurricane strength within a few days as it crosses western Cuba and moves toward the Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday afternoon or Thursday.

WHAT WILL BE THE MANAGEMENT MODEL?

The direction this possible system takes once it enters the Gulf will ultimately depend on the strength of a high pressure system over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic.

One possible scenario is that the high pressure steering system is large and powerful. It would be... — One possible scenario is that the high pressure steering system is large and powerful. This would help prevent TD Eighteen from moving northward from the Gulf and instead direct the system further west.(wlox)

One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is weak and small. It would be... — One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is weak and small. This would allow Eighteen to move closer to the northern Gulf.(wlox)

WHAT FACTORS COULD WEAKEN OR STRENGTHEN THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM?

Working towards a possible system? Sea surface temperatures and low wind shear over the southern Gulf. Working against the system possible? Land interaction with Cuba this week, lack of deeply warm Gulf water, stronger wind shear near the northern Gulf.

Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough to support an intensifying tropical system in the Gulf… — Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough to support an intensifying tropical system in the Gulf and Caribbean.(wlox)

Sea surface water temperatures are warmer than usual in November across most of the Gulf and Caribbean.(wlox)

The deep, warm waters of the Caribbean will help TD Eighteen grow stronger. But the Gulf is hot... — The deep, warm waters of the Caribbean will help TD Eighteen grow stronger. But the Gulf’s warm waters are shallow and contain plenty of colder water below the surface. So this should help prevent the Eighteen force from becoming some sort of major storm.(wlox)

Dry air on the way to TD Eighteen could help limit its strength.(wlox)

For the next few days, weak wind shear could allow TD Eighteen to strengthen. But, the... — For the next few days, weak wind shear could allow TD Eighteen to strengthen. But the northern Gulf is subject to strong wind shear, so if the eighteenth arrives in the northern Gulf, this strong wind shear would help limit any strengthening.(wlox)

WHAT CAN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EXPECT?

Since TD Eighteen is only just forming, models may take some time to become more accurate with specific details such as the trajectory and intensity of this system.

At this time, our local forecast calls for slightly higher rain chances around Friday and Saturday, which could be associated with tropical weather. And our weather could be pretty windy on those days, depending on how far we are from TD Eighteen.