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4 trades the Detroit Tigers could make to solve 1B woes

Pabio November 3, 2024

If the Detroit Tigers exchange for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

Imagine these players taking the field on Opening Day 2025: Guerrero at first base, free agent Alex Bregman at third base, ColtKeith at second base, Riley Greene in left field, Parker Pres in center field and Kerry Carpenter in right field, with Tarik Skubal as a starting pitcher.

This is a World Series caliber team.

The reality of the situation is that Skubal is under team control for the next two seasons before entering free agency. If the Tigers can’t sign Skubal to a contract extension, then they need to give themselves the best chance of winning the World Series with him on the roster in 2025 and 2026. To get there, the Tigers would be wise to replace the first goal. Spencer Torkelsonat least in the short term.

Here are four hypothetical trades for the Tigers to upgrade first base to a right-handed hitter before the 2025 season, using the Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles as trade partners.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Tigers acquire: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Blue Jays acquire: RHP Reese Olson2B/3B Jace JungRHP Matt ManningSS Jose Dickson.

The buzz: Guerrero, a four-time All-Star, is under team control for one more season – he is expected to make around $30 million in his final year of salary arbitration – before entering free agency after the season 2025 looking for decade long lucrative job. contract that could mirror what Juan Soto gets this offseason.

The 25-year-old hit .323 with 30 home runs and a .940 OPS in 159 games during the 2024 season. He has been a top-10 hitter in baseball over the past four seasons. The Blue Jays are unlikely to trade Guerrero this offseason, but if the Blue Jays find they can’t sign him to a contract extension, miss out on the Soto sweepstakes, or commit to revamping their roster by focusing on the future, maybe they will. trade him in the next five months, before Opening Day 2025. After all, Guerrero’s return would benefit the Blue Jays now and in the future: Olson is a borderline All-Star pitcher under team control. team through the 2029 season, Jung through 2030 and Manning through 2027, with Dickson still in the Dominican Summer League. . Jung is ranked as the Tigers’ No. 5 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline.

For this trade to happen, however, the Tigers would have to draft Bregman to play third base and go all-in on winning a championship in 2025. If Guerrero is unavailable this offseason, perhaps the Tigers will sign veteran Carlos Santana for a title. One-year contract and revisit the Guerrero trade at the deadline to land a three-month superstar rental with goals of a postseason run to the World Series.

Another thing: Remember when the Tigers traded for Miguel Cabrera in December 2007 (with two years remaining on his contract) and signed him to a contract extension in March 2008? The big difference is that Guerrero only has one year left on his contract, so after nearly 10 years with the Blue Jays since signing as a famous teenage international free agent, it’s almost impossible to imagine that he would waste the opportunity to reach the Open. market – unless his team gives him a blank check.

Yandy Diaz

The Tigers acquire: 1B Yandy Diaz.

The rays acquire: RHP Casey MizeRHP Troy Melton.

The buzz: A trade for Díaz, a former All-Star, is more realistic than one for Guerrero, but the Rays have recently been reluctant to consider offers for Díaz. The 33-year-old hit .281 with 14 homers and a .755 OPS in 145 games during the 2024 season, serving as the best hitter on a team with a below-average offense. His .303 batting average ranks fifth among 230 qualified hitters over the past three seasons, and his .383 on-base percentage ranks sixth, with Díaz winning the batting title in 2023.

Díaz is under contract for $10 million in 2025, plus a $12 million team option in 2026 (without a buyout), so the Tigers would have him for two seasons, allowing for a deliberate transition of starting duties base for prospecting Josue Briceño. in 2027. The Rays need offense, but historically the Rays covet pitchers with above-average induced vertical breaks on their fastballs, which is a strength of both Mize (16.2 inches) and of Melton (17 inches). In 2024, Mize posted a 4.49 ERA with 29 walks and 78 strikeouts in 102⅓ innings in 22 games (20 starts) for the Tigers. The former No. 1 overall draft pick is under team control through the 2026 season.

If Mize unlocks a better slider, he should settle in as a stable backfield starter with mid-rotation upside, but otherwise he could be pushed into a long-term stay in the bullpen. Melton ranks as the Tigers’ 11th overall prospect. He recorded a 5.10 ERA with 30 walks and 119 strikeouts in 100⅔ innings in 23 starts for Double-A Erie in 2024, his second full season in the minor leagues. He has the pitch mix and command to become an MLB starter, perhaps as early as 2025.

Rhys Hoskins

The Tigers acquire: 1B Rhys Hoskins.

Brewers acquire: RHP Dylan Smith.

The buzz: It was no surprise when Hoskins exercised his $18 million player option to return to the Brewers in 2025. He’s not worth that price — the team’s second-highest paid player — so a drop in salary could be in the cards, especially since prospect Tyler Black is set to start at first base for the Brewers. The contract also includes an $18 million mutual option for 2026 (with a $4 million buyout), which any team would decline unless Hoskins experiences a resurgence in production at the plate. The 31-year-old hit .214 with 26 homers, 53 walks and 149 strikeouts in 131 games during the 2024 season, returning from left ACL surgery that forced him to miss the entire campaign 2023. Hoskins had career-worst performances in batting average (.214), on-base percentage (.303), OPS (.722) and strikeout rate (28.8%) , an ugly slump after hitting .242 with a .353 OBP, .846 OPS. and a 24% strikeout rate between 2017 and 2022. Therefore, Hoskins constitutes a buy-low, bounce-back candidate for the Tigers in a trade.

As for the return, Smith is known as a prospect as a third-round pick in the 2021 draft, but his development has not progressed over the past three seasons, in part due to injuries. He posted a 4.40 ERA with 31 walks and 59 strikeouts in 57⅓ innings in 14 games (13 starts) for High-A West Michigan in 2024, missing approximately three months with an injury to the right shoulder. If he can stay healthy, he has the upside of a two-pitch MLB reliever due to his average fastball and above-average slider. But Smith doesn’t have the mix necessary to be a starter in the big leagues. All things considered, the Tigers might be ready to move on from the oft-injured draft.

Ryan Mountcastle

The Tigers acquire: 1B Ryan Mountcastle.

The Orioles acquire: RHP Ty MaddenLHP Lael Lockhart.

The buzz: Not only is Mountcastle close friends with Greene as a fellow graduate of Hagerty High School in Oviedo, Florida, but he has also been an above-average hitter (but not nearly an elite hitter) in each of his five seasons in MLB, despite its free approach. The 27-year-old is under team control for two more seasons – and is expected to make around $6.6 million in his penultimate year of salary arbitration – before hitting free agency after the 2026 season. The Orioles, however, have expressed interest in trading Mountcastle, opening the door for top 100 prospects Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo to play first base.

Mountcastle hit .271 with 13 home runs, 27 walks and 114 strikeouts in 124 games during the 2024 season. The chase-high, walk-low approach doesn’t suit the Tigers, but he makes enough contact to benefit from the striking force of the ball. His .745 OPS ranks 110th among 230 qualified hitters over the past three seasons, including a .733 OPS last season that ranked 15th among 25 first basemen. Since Mountcastle is replaceable, the Orioles need to add MLB-ready starting pitchers at the upper levels of the minor leagues. In 2024, Madden posted a 2.55 ERA in four starts in Double-A Erie, a 7.79 ERA in 18 starts in Triple-A Toledo and a 4.30 ERA in six games (one start) in MLB. He could end up as a fastball reliever, but he has the upside of being a backfield starter due to a developing splitter. Lockhart has Triple-A depth because his fastball averages just 88.7 mph, but his splitter has an incredible whiff rate of 54.8%. Madden, a first-round pick in the 2021 draft, is the No. 14 prospect in the Tigers’ farm system; Lockhart ranks No. 26.

Contact Evan Petzold at [email protected] or follow it @EvanPetzold.

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