A simple look at match results or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worthy of closer examination.

Yes… Numbers Lie.

George Pickens’ one touchdown catch is a lie

Pickens only managed to catch one TD despite seeing the third-most targets in the red zone and the most inside the five-yard line this season. Pickens ranks fourth lowest Percentage of fantasy points resulting from touchdowns He is a top 36 WR. Pickens is a WR34 in terms of fantasy points per game, but is currently a WR13. expected fantasy points. The increase in playing time and the change of quarterback will help him get closer to those expectations going forward.

While Pickens earned a season-high 93% route share last week, he was also given a whopping 70% airspace share from Russell Wilson. Air yards per target was a season highand he led all WRs in fantasy usage by wide margins. Pickens had a 2.40 YPRR, while also hauling in the second-most pass rushing penalty yards in the league and allowing two TDs inside five, nearly doubling his previous season total (three). he won 46% and 40% first read target rates ranked sixth in the last two weeks ESPN’s Open Score this season.

Pickens was helped a lucky leap And Sauce Gardner’s injury last weekbut it is clear that Wilson will benefit from taking over. Fields has averaged just 184.3 passes this season compared to his career average of 169.1. Wilson has averaged 232.4 passing yards for his career and has historically been among the league leaders in end zone targets. Pittsburgh’s busy schedule will continue, but Pickens’ schedule is going from difficult to positive. The Steelers have faced top-eight defenses in WR fantasy points in four of the last six games, but have faced bottom-eight opponents in six of seven games after the bye.

Pickens’ stats are misleading because he is a rising top-20 WR.

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De’Von Achane’s RB24 ranking is a lie

Achane has been disappointing in the RB24 rankings in points per game this season. He left a game after just 11 snaps and Achane is the RB10 player. expected fantasy pointsso his role was incredibly encouraging. Of course, Tua Tagovailoa’s injury has been the main culprit for the lack of production. Miami averages fewer points per game more than the last two winless teams and the Bryce Young-led Panthers.

The Dolphins’ offense wasn’t very impressive against Tagovailoa earlier this season, but they produced over 400 yards (6.2 YPP) in Week 1 (on a favorable matchup). Achane has a touchdown putback Second most carries with a single touchdownand Miami’s league-lowest red zone TD percentage (35.7) is sure to improve. Achane was operating as RB1 and a strong Usage Score During Raheem Mostert’s return last week.

The Dolphins have the sixth-highest team total (25.5 points) this week, so Tagovailoa’s return is expected to make a significant impact. Achane can be among the top 10 RBs to make progress if he cooperates with health.

Jordan Mason’s three TD runs are a lie, BUT…

Mason has the second-most carries and second-most rushing yards, but has thrown three touchdown passes since September. Mason has never been used almost the same as a receiver Christian McCaffrey is in the role, but he’s tied with Kyren Williams for the league lead in red zone carries. Both backs have eight more RZ rushing attempts than the next closest RB, and Williams has eight touchdowns. Mason had three more moves in the 10-run than any other run, but he converted only one of his seven moves in the quintet into a score.

Mason struggled at the 1-yard line last week and the 49ers’ sixth-worst red zone TD percentage (45.1) should regress after the team led the NFL (68%) last season. Mason clearly Due to TD regression while averaging the eighth-most touches per game (19.7). They also have a terrific game against Dallas where San Francisco could be missing Deebo Samuel.

But Mason is playing with a sprained shoulder He limited him in Wednesday practiceand additional risks may arise regarding Sunday night’s game. Moreover, McCaffrey expected to return after Week 9 for 49ersSo Mason’s role may soon be rapidly diminishing (to be fair, CMC’s health remains a big question mark).

Mason has been a great flyer/waiver addition in the final round despite scoring fewer goals than expected, but his role may look very different after the bye.

Josh Jacobs’ one TD run is a lie

This season, Jacobs ranks third in carries, fourth in rushing and 37th in touchdown runs. He is one of six fullbacks to see 100% of his team’s carries inside the five-yard line; Jacobs, on the other hand, threw a punch on only one of his six rushing attempts; He was 10/19 in those situations over the last two seasons.

Emanuel Wilson had just 21% of his tackles last week, and Jacobs has averaged 19.3 touches over the last three games. Green Bay is averaging the seventh-most points per game (26.6), and that’s with Malik Willis starting twice. Jordan Love has performed incredibly well in touchdown passes, as his 8.4% TD rate leads the league by a wide margin — and that’s the highest rate in a season since Aaron Rodgers (8.7%) in 2020 will be. Jacobs averaged 11 rushing touchdowns in 2020. It’s 2022 and Love’s TD rate will decline.

Jacobs had his first career TD catch last week and more scores are coming.