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    • Hurricane Center tracks the path of Caribbean systems. Impacts in Florida?
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    Hurricane Center tracks the path of Caribbean systems. Impacts in Florida?

    Pabio Posted on

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    A a tropical depression is likely to form next week with the gradual development of a system that continues to prepare in the Caribbean.

    According to National Hurricane Center forecasters there is an 80% chance that a large area of ​​low pressure will develop over the southwest Caribbean Sea over the next seven days. A system further east, near Puerto Rico, is moving east and could cause thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed by another system.

    Meanwhile, there is another named storm far from Florida. Subtropical Storm Patty formed west of the Azores on Saturday morning.

    What does all this mean for the coasts of the United States? There are a lot of ifs, ands Hurricane strikes in November remain rare.

    “The most reliable indications suggest that the western flank of this high pressure will still extend over the Gulf, maintaining a potential storm moving west or northwest into the southwest Gulf of Mexico,” he said. said Ryan Truchalat, forecaster-owner of Weathertiger, which provides reporting for the USA TODAY Network.

    “A minority of model ensemble members have a faster and stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm theoretically near the Yucatan or Cuba could then turn northeast toward Florida late next week or the following weekend.”

    In short, everything is clear for Florida and the United States this weekend, but stay aware of the situation.

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    The next name storms are Rafael and Sara.

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    Here are the details of what exists as of 8 a.m. on November 2:

    Where is Subtropical Storm Patty located? Is a hurricane heading towards Florida?

    Location: .39.9N, 34.4W about 420 miles west-northwest of the AzoresMaximum sustained winds: 50 mphCurrent movement: East-southeast at 7 mphMinimum central pressure: 986 MB

    The center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 39.9 north and longitude 34.4 west. The storm is moving east-southeast at nearly 7 mph. Faster movement to the east-southeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the east and east-northeast on Sunday and Monday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast through early next week. Patty could degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday evening. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles from the center.

    Risks affecting the land:

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in parts of the Azores this weekend.

    PRECIPITATION: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over the Azores through Sunday.

    SURF: The swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores in the coming days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

    November brings tropical development closer to Florida, United States

    Since 1851, three hurricanes made landfall in Florida in November.

    While the preceding months of the Atlantic hurricane season typically see tropical waves emerge off the coast of Africa, giving populations ample notice as they cross the Atlantic, this is not the case for the last month of the season.

    “As we approach the start of November, the focus for tropical development shifts closer to the United States. Typically, late season areas of interest are the Caribbean and off the southeast coast.” , DaSilva said.

    A tropical depression could form at the end of the week in the Caribbean

    Southwest Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean Sea are associated with a large area of ​​low pressure.

    Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the coming days as the system moves generally north to northwest over the central and western Caribbean Sea.

    Regardless of development, local heavy rain is possible over parts of adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests in the Western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.

    • Chance of training over 48 hours: average, 60 percent.
    • Chance of training over 7 days: high, 80 percent.

    What else is there and how likely are they to strengthen each other?

    Near the Greater Antilles: A large area of ​​disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds extending from near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northeastward for a few hundred miles are associated with a trough of low pressure.

    Slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles.

    Early next week, this system is expected to be absorbed by the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of how the situation develops, local heavy rain is possible over the next few days over the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and southeastern Bahamas.

    • Chance of training in 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
    • Chance of training over 7 days: low, 10 percent.

    North Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization near a low pressure system centered a few hundred kilometers west-northwest of the Azores.

    Environmental conditions could allow for additional development today and tonight, and the system could become a short-lived subtropical or tropical storm as it moves east-southeast at 10 to 15 mph . Winds aloft are expected to become unfavorable for further development by the end of this weekend.

    The interests of the Azores should follow the progress of this system.

    • Chance of training over 48 hours: average, 60 percent.
    • Chance of training over 7 days: average, 60 percent.

    Who is likely to be impacted?

    The waters in the The Caribbean remains quite warm to help foster tropical development, AccuWeather forecasters said Saturday morning.

    Disturbing breezes, called wind shearalso remain low in the region.

    “At this time, the most likely broadest area of ​​tropical development would be over the western and central Caribbean, and the development timeline would extend from Saturday to Tuesday,” said Bernie Rayno, a meteorologist in head of AccuWeather. “It is possible that the feature could first evolve somewhere near the large northern Caribbean islands, perhaps in Jamaica.”

    Weather Watches and Warnings Issued in Florida

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    When is hurricane season in the Atlantic?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Countdown: When will hurricane season end?

    Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms past near your city

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

    Pabio
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