Amid warmer-than-average fall temperatures, Colorado’s snowpack levels are above normal.

Snowpack, also called snow-water equivalent, is a measure of the amount of liquid water retained in the state’s snowfields – a key indicator of drought conditions and seasonal runoff.

As of Friday, Nov. 1, the statewide snowpack was 143% of the 30-year median, which is considered historical normal, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service data.

Still, Colorado still has a long way to go before experts know how this season’s snowpack will fare compared to previous years. The snowpack generally begins to form in mid-October and peaks around early April.

“As in football, we are at the start of the first quarter. … There’s a lot of season ahead of us,” said Matthew Aleksa, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction. “But we’re off to a good start.”

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Recent storms brought cooler weather to mountain and western slope areas that in some places were about 15 degrees above normal during the first half of October, Aleksa said. Most of the snowfall was concentrated in the San Juans area, which reported between 1 and 2 feet of fresh powder during the last two storms which hit at the end of October.

Snowpack levels in this region’s river basins are well above 200% of normal, helping to boost the state’s overall numbers. Yet in the eastern part of the state, persistent dry weather has blocked snowpack.

In the South Platte River Basin, which extends along the Front Range from Fort Collins to Castle Rock, snowpack was 43% of normal Friday. In the Arkansas River basin, which spans the south-central part of the state, levels were at 84%.

Yet when looking at statewide data, “we’re pretty close to where we normally should be at this time of year, maybe a little bit above,” Aleksa said.

But this can change quickly depending on storm patterns and even a brief period of drier weather can cause snowpack levels to drop.

“The good thing about the last few (storm) systems is that they helped bring our temperatures well above normal to close to or even slightly below normal,” Aleksa said. “Needless to say, at the end of this weekend and into next week, it looks like we’re going to see more mountain snow and cooler conditions… (and) these systems coming in are helping to strengthen that air cold and keep these temperatures lower.”

OpenSnow.com’s forecast shows a fairly active start to November, with the next storm arriving Sunday afternoon. About 8 inches of snowfall could be possible near and east of the Continental Divide, although areas as far west as Berthoud Pass could also see similar numbers.

In a Friday blog postOpenSnow founding meteorologist Joel Gratz wrote: “The longer-term outlook is all good news. Some early seasons are warm and have us waiting for winter to arrive, but it looks like we’re going to be on the storm train for the first half of November with a few storms every week.

Climate Prediction Center Monthly Outlook for November shows equal chances that Colorado will experience above or below normal temperatures and precipitation. Its three-month forecast for November, December and January shows that Colorado’s mountainous areas have a slight chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

With recent storms favoring the southwest of the state, Aleksa said trends could shift toward the central and northern mountains as La Niña conditions continue to develop.

An atmospheric pattern Due to temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña is generally characterized by more precipitous, cooler weather in the north and drier, warmer weather in the south. During the 2023-24 winter season, the opposite phenomenon, El Niño, was present, which can have the opposite effect.

Neither phenomenon has a strong historical influence on Colorado’s snow season, but it is possible there could be effects later in the winter.

“It looks like the southern mountains are getting more snow right now,” Aleksa said. “But that could change early in the new year, with the northern mountains seeing more.”