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A look back at the history of Diego Pavia against Auburn and Hugh Freeze
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A look back at the history of Diego Pavia against Auburn and Hugh Freeze

Hugh Freeze is well aware of the abilities of Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia. If you ask him, Freeze will probably tell you that he’s a little too conscious.

“I’m sick of watching this quarterback,” Hugh Freeze said with a smile Monday. “I’ve had enough of him.”

In Freeze’s two meetings against Pavia, his teams lost by a combined score of 70-24. The first came in the midst of a free fall in Freeze’s final season at Liberty and the second ended any optimism created by a three-game winning streak Auburn had before its game against New State -Mexico last season.

Saturday’s game will be the first time Freeze will coach Pavia in a Southeastern Conference game as the New Mexico State transfer will lead a Vanderbilt team that has become one of the best stories in football university during the 2024 season.

The Commodores enter the game 5-3 and already have a win over then-No. 1 Alabama. The Pavia legend grew exponentially during this game, completing 16 of 20 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns while adding 56 yards on the ground.

It was the introduction to the broader college football community in Pavia, but an all-too-familiar site for Freeze and Auburn fans.

A look back at Freeze’s two previous encounters with Pavie and what made him so effective:

Liberty vs. New Mexico State, 2022

When Freeze’s Liberty team met New Mexico State in late November 2022, the two teams were going in opposite directions. After starting 8-1, Liberty had lost its last two games, while New Mexico State had won two of its last three after starting 1-5.

The game itself was hardly competitive. New Mexico State took a 28-7 lead into the second quarter and never let up.

Pavie was at the center of the Aggies’ 49-point outburst, accounting for 339 of New Mexico State’s 428 yards. While Pavia was impressive in this game, the free football helped New Mexico State turn the game into the blowout that it became.

New Mexico State’s second-half touchdowns came on drives of 44, 53 and 35 yards, capitalizing on Liberty turnovers and good field position. Pavia’s efficiency has always been good, making turnovers very costly against his teams.

Two of New Mexico State’s second-half touchdowns came after Liberty turned the ball over on downs and the Aggies took advantage of another short field in the first half, scoring a touchdown on a 39-yard play in one play after an interception.

New Mexico State didn’t dominate moment of possession as he did against Auburn in 2023, but did a good job taking advantage of Liberty’s turnovers and mistakes.

A big part of the reason the time of possession numbers weren’t as lopsided in this game was due to a one-and-two-play New Mexico State touchdown and a six-minute Liberty drive at the end of the fourth quarter when the game was decided.

Although turnovers haven’t been as much of an issue in recent weeks, Auburn has had issues with turnovers this season. He probably can’t afford to make too many of these mistakes against Vanderbilt, given Pavia and the offense’s ability to control the game and the clock.

Auburn vs. New Mexico State, 2023

Last season’s game against New Mexico State didn’t get away from Freeze’s team as quickly as the 2022 game did, but the Aggies started to make some headway in the second half.

There were fewer explosive plays from New Mexico State in this game, but it was an example of the Pavie-led offense controlling the game. The Aggies ran 65 plays to Auburn’s 45 and finished with a possession advantage of 38:50 to 21:10.

The biggest example came from a 16-play, 83-yard touchdown run by New Mexico State in the second half that appeared to be the killing blow for Auburn. That drive fell behind 9:58 and put the Aggies up 24-7 with 8:42 to play.

This drive saw New Mexico State convert two third downs and two fourth downs, areas in which Pavia’s offense was effective in both wins against Freeze’s teams.

In the two games, New Mexico State went a combined 17 of 28 on third and fourth downs, a level of efficiency that’s hard to beat.

Even when New Mexico State didn’t score a touchdown, it had a 6:39 drive that ended with a punt and another drive lasting 6:02 and 11 plays that ended with a basket.

What needs to change?

How can Freeze and Auburn make this result different against Pavia? Improvements are needed in a few areas, but they are not complicated.

The first is containing Pavie as a runner, a task easier said than done. Of New Mexico State’s 13 third-down conversions over the two games, six came on Pavia points. Stopping quarterback runs has been a problem for Auburn this season, but the freshman linebacker and quarterback spy Demarcus Riddick could be the key to progressing in this area.

It’s easier to get stops on third down when the offense is less dynamic and getting those stops prevents Vanderbilt from creating drives that last half a quarter.

Although the defense has the direct responsibility of containing Pavia, it also needs more help from the offense.

“If you make 40 plays and 10 of them are botched, you’re not going to win a football game.” tight end Luke Deal told reporters Tuesday. “We need to make sure we’re there to provide a spark to our defense.”

Auburn had no turnovers against New Mexico State last season, but had too many empty and short drives, keeping control of the game in New Mexico State’s hands.

To beat Vanderbilt, Auburn can’t let Pavia take control of the game and continue to run down the clock en route to points. If so, the New Mexico native could return to Nashville with a clear victory over Freeze.

Peter Rauterkus covers Auburn sports for AL.com. You can follow him on @peter_rauterkus or send him an email to [email protected]m

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