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    • Presidential Election Odds Are Changing: What the Polls and Oddsmakers Say
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    Presidential Election Odds Are Changing: What the Polls and Oddsmakers Say

    Pabio Posted on

    We are only five days away from Election Day, and surveys, experts And experts keep telling us 2024 presidential race seems extremely close between Vice President Kamala Harris and old President Donald Trump.

    That’s not the message offshore betting markets have been sent in recent weeks.

    The gap between Harris and Trump continues to widen on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform, and on two major British betting platforms, Sporting Index and Betfair Exchange. From Wednesday evening, Betfair Temperature Gauge highlighted a “likely” Trump victory.

    How betting markets evolved in October

    The odds on Polymarket were those of Trump and Harris Win Odds tied at 49% on October 3. Since then, Trump’s chances of defeating Harris on Tuesday reached their widest margin since July 21, when President Joe Biden has resigned of the race.

    The initial increase in Trump’s chances of victory this month corresponded to a slight increase in his poll numbers in battleground states like Pennsylvania. But some have questioned rapid and significant jump in its probability to win. They suggested that deep-pocketed gamblers could tamper with betting markets. Polymarket officials said they investigate these allegations.

    The gap between Trump and Harris’ chances of winning is now as wide as the gap between Biden and Trump in the 2020 election. But the gap in polling in battleground states is not comparable . Biden’s lead in 2020 polls was three times larger than between Trump and Harris.

    Comparing poll and gambling odds in the 2020 and 2024 elections

    play

    Election forecaster sticks to Kamala Harris’ winning prediction

    Renowned election forecaster Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections.

    States where polls show the race is still a toss-up

    A really clear policy aggregates surveys and shows trends in their results. He still considers eight battleground states with 103 electoral votes because poll results remain within the margin of error. Foreign bettors have increased the odds that Trump will win all but two of those states. However, across all eight states, recent polls put the gap between Harris and Trump at 1 point or less.

    Oddsmakers believe Trump’s probability of victory is higher than in previous elections

    Trump’s probability of victory is now just a few percentage points lower than the campaign’s peak on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. As of July 16, his odds of defeating Biden were over 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

    According to a 2004 article in the Journal of Economic Perspectivesthe heavy betting favorite in the month leading up to the election, has only lost twice, in 1916 and 1948. Betting markets also failed to predict Trump’s victory in 2016.

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