Early voting has started and election observers pay close attention to what these numbers mean for the results of the November 5 elections. And yet, it is voters decide late which will ultimately determine who wins the presidency, the House and the Senate. Although it is hard to believe that there are still some who have not yet decided who they will vote for, these individuals do exist. Early voters tend to be among the most partisan, while late decision-makers tend to be among the least informed and least partisan among us.. So it is very important to understand who these people are and what helps them make a decision.

An examination of the U.S. Senate race in Ohio is instructive. The race is here the most expensive in the countrywith over $400 million spent and growing. It is considered essential that Democrats win if they want to maintain control of the Senate.

The race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno appears to be very close. Drawing of a poll of likely Ohio voters we recently conducted, we find a significant number of respondents who have not yet decided who they will ultimately support (7%). We find Brown up 47% against 45% for Moreno. This small number of undecideds would translate to more than 400,000 voters if turnout in Ohio matched 2020 levels.

So who exactly are these people? In our survey, 79% are women, 78% are white, more than two-thirds have an education ranging from college to graduate school, and 51% are self-employed. Fifty-two percent say they are moderate, and 1 in 5 describe themselves as conservative. Undecided voters are more likely to be Republican than Democratic (20% to 7%).

We also find that those who report voting for Trump in 2020 are almost twice as likely to be undecided voters as those who report voting for Biden in 2020 (43% vs. 23%).. We also find that they are much less active in politics than their more engaged counterparts, reporting little political engagement and demonstrating much less interest in political campaigns.

These results closely follow those of other studies. Voters who decide late tend to be less partisan, less ideological, and less likely to have a college degree. They tend to vote infrequently and generally don’t follow politics as closely as more engaged voters. It’s likely that most of these undecided voters are just starting to become interested in the campaign, making the information they come into contact with incredibly powerful in shaping their view of the race.

In the context of the Ohio Senate race, both campaigns are well aware of these characteristics and tailor their messages to them. Moreno attacks Brown for having “an absolute extremist on this issue of abortion», a message intended for moderates. In a bid to attract female voters, Moreno adds: “I have two daughters and the most influential person in my life is my mother. There will always be someone who will defend the interests of women and ensure that they are protected…” This message seems designed to convince undecided voters.

Moreno, however, committed what could prove to be a damaging blunder when a video of him surfaced saying: “Unfortunately, moreover, there are a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women who say: “Look, it’s abortion. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I’ll vote for anyone else. ALL RIGHT. It’s a little crazy, actually, but, especially for women who are over 50, I’m like, “I don’t think this is a problem for you. » » Unsurprisingly, the comments were used by Brown supporters to report Moreno as an extremist on women’s issues.

For his part, Brown stuck to his message promoting the “dignity of work” and making it clear that he opposed trade deals negotiated by U.S. presidents. both holidays. These messages are intended to resonate with moderate and independent voters – who are also among the most likely to decide late. Further promote his moderate and bipartisan party good faithBrown’s campaign aired an ad featuring the Republican Wood County sheriff Mark Wasylyshyn. In the commercial, Wasylyshyn says he worked with Brown to stem the flow of fentanyl in the United States and that they both visited the southern border together.

The lessons about messaging we observe here apply well to the late voters that presidential campaigns are trying to capture in swing states. Messaging these voters is key to moving these final decision-makers toward the Trump or Harris camps. It was the late decision-makers who pushed Trump to finish line in 2016 because they have clearly crossed its path in the final days of the elections. Given how tough the race is today, reaching and winning over these voters is a key priority for both campaigns. It is these voters who will ultimately determine the outcome of many elections across the country on November 5.

Robert Alexander is a professor of political science and founding director of the Democracy and Public Policy Research Network at Bowling Green State University. He is the author of Representation and the Electoral College, published by Oxford University Press.

David J. Jackson is professor of political science at Bowling Green State University in Ohio. His main research interest is the relationship between politics and culture. He is the author of the book “Entertainment and politics: the influence of pop culture on the political socialization of young adults”, as well as articles in journals such as Quarterly Political Research, Polish American Studies, International press/politics reviewAnd Journal of Political Marketing.