By Art Michalik

Electric vehicle adoption is expected to increase in the coming years, driven by technological advancements, the expansion of public charging stations and market dynamics that are expected to make electric vehicles more accessible to a wider range consumers, suggests a recent study.

An estimated 79% of car buyers will consider purchasing an electric vehicle by the end of this decade, according to Study on the Path to Electric Vehicle Adoption in 2024 by Cox Automotive. Sales of electric vehicles in the United States topped 1 million units last year for the first time, according to sales estimates from Kelley Blue Book.

Here are some of the big changes coming.

Better batteries

New battery technologies are at the heart of the evolution of electric vehicles and several promising innovations are on the horizon. Solid-state, sodium-ion and lithium-iron-phosphate batteries could revolutionize the performance and affordability of electric vehicles.

Solid-state batteries promise several advantages over current lithium-ion technology, including faster charging times and higher energy density. These batteries replace the liquid electrolyte of traditional lithium-ion cells with a solid electrolyte, allowing for a longer lifespan.

Sodium-ion batteries use sodium instead of lithium, which is more abundant and cheaper to produce. Sodium-ion batteries have the potential to significantly reduce the costs of electric vehicles, especially in the production of budget models.

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are also gaining ground as a key technology. Hyundai and Kia recently announced a program to develop LFP batteries, which use iron and phosphate as active materials. LFP batteries are lighter, safer and have a longer lifespan than lithium-ion batteries, studies suggest.

The expansion of charging infrastructure

The increasing availability of public charging stations will also lead to wider adoption of electric vehicles, according to the study. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) projects that nearly 200,000 public charging stations will operate in the United States by 2030.

Increasing public charging infrastructure, particularly the deployment of ultra-fast DC chargers, will significantly reduce charging times, making long-distance EV travel more practical and convenient, according to NREL. DC chargers can deliver up to 80% charge in just 10 to 15 minutes, helping to remove one of the perceived barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles.

In addition, home charging solutions are evolving. Wireless charging systems, which allow electric vehicles to charge by parking at a charging station, are already being tested and could become common in the coming years. Another innovation, bi-directional charging, will allow owners to use their electric vehicles as a backup power source at home.​

Market growth, affordability and demographic change

As electric vehicle technology advances and battery production becomes more efficient, the price of purchasing a new electric vehicle will decrease. The Cox Automotive study suggests that cheaper electric vehicle models will soon enter the market, making electric vehicles more affordable for a wide range of potential buyers. Government incentives, such as tax credits and rebates, will continue to play a crucial role in reducing the cost of electric vehicles.

While high-income luxury buyers have dominated the electric vehicle market, the next five years will change significantly with the arrival of younger, budget-conscious consumers. With more affordable models and a growing market for used electric vehicles, sustainability-focused Gen Z and millennials are expected to play an important role. The Cox Automotive study shows growing interest from these groups, with 77% now considering used electric vehicles, up from 62% just a few years ago.​

Sustainability

Sustainability remains a top priority for automakers and battery producers, who are focused on reducing the environmental impact of electric vehicles. One solution lies in battery recycling technologies, which recover valuable materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel from used batteries, reducing the need for new mining activities and minimizing waste.

Equally important are second-life applications, in which batteries that have exhausted their use for electric vehicles but still retain 70 to 80 percent of their capacity are reused for energy storage systems in homes and businesses. This approach extends the battery life cycle while promoting the capture of renewable energy.

Additionally, automakers are moving toward circular economy models, in which materials from used batteries are continually recycled and reused to produce new batteries. By keeping valuable resources in circulation, this model minimizes the extraction of new raw materials and helps reduce the overall carbon footprint of electric vehicles.

Originally published: October 30, 2024 at 3:29 p.m. PDT