NASA finally knows what caused the Orion spacecraft’s heat shield to erode following its historic trip to the Moon in 2022, but the space agency isn’t saying, at least not yet.

At a meeting of the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) in Houston, NASA officials revealed that they had identified the reason why Orion’s heat shield flaked off during the Artemis 1 mission, but refused to share it. “We have a conclusive determination of the root cause of the problem,” Lori Glaze, acting deputy associate administrator for NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate, told SpaceNews on Monday. reported. “I’m not going to share right now, when it comes out it will all come out together.”

NASA is still determining how to proceed with the Artemis 2 mission, which is scheduled to launch in September 2025, according to Glaze. The space agency is conducting additional tests to mitigate erosion of the crew capsule during atmospheric reentry, which will be completed by the end of November.

A An unequipped Orion capsule crashed in the Pacific Ocean on December 11, 2022, after a 26-day round trip to the Moon as part of the Artemis 1 mission. The mission was a success but follow-up inspections of the capsule revealed a unexpected performance of its thermal shield.

During Orion’s re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere, the spacecraft traveled at speeds reaching 24,600 miles per hour (39,590 kilometers per hour) and its heat shield withstood temperatures above 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit . Although NASA engineers anticipated that some carbonization would occur, more of the shield’s ablative material came off than expected.

Since then, NASA has conducted tests on the Orion spacecraft to determine what could have caused it all this unexpected damage. As the space agency prepares to send a crew of four astronauts aboard Orion for the Artemis 2 mission, it really needs to address any issues that could pose a threat to the crew’s safety.

Earlier in May, NASA’s Office of Inspector General released a report on NASA’s readiness to launch its Artemis 2 missionidentifying Orion’s heat shield as one of the critical issues to be resolved before the journey to the Moon and back. “Parts of the coal seam wore differently than NASA engineers predicted, cracking and breaking the spacecraft into fragments that created a debris trail rather than melting as expected,” the report said.

The report adds that the performance of the heat shield creates “a risk that the heat shield may not adequately protect the capsule’s systems and crew from the extreme heat of re-entry during future missions.” In response, NASA said it was working to resolve the problem either by replacing heat shield components or changing Orion’s re-entry trajectory.

Based on the latest statements from NASA officials, the space agency may not yet have decided how to move forward. Orion’s heat shield that will be used for Artemis 2 has already been installed at the bottom of the crew capsule, so replacing any of its components would require dismantling the spacecraft. “We know what needs to be done for future missions, but the heat shield for Artemis 2 is already built, so how can we keep astronauts safe with Artemis 2?” Glaze said during the meeting, according to SpaceNews.

At a press conference in August 2023, NASA astronaut Reid Wiseman, Artemis 2 mission commander, said: “This crew, we’re not going to launch until we know we’re ready, until our team knows the vehicle is ready. and we will keep up the pressure.

We don’t know why NASA is keeping this reason under wraps, but the fact that space agency officials aren’t yet ready to share the news suggests it could be really bad, and maybe it could mean a new delay in the Artemis program. is necessary to ensure the safety of the crew.

NASA has already delayed its Artemis schedule to resolve security and technical issues related to the spaceship. The Artemis 2 mission was initially planned for November 2024 and the follow-up Artemis 3 mission, initially planned for late 2025, will not launch until September 2026.

With this ongoing heat shield problem, NASA’s desire to launch a crew to the Moon and back in less than a year is questionable.